On September 13, citing Brazilian media outlet "Amado Mundo," the South China Morning Post reported that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and a right-wing presidential candidate, had presented a draft proposal to a donor group of U.S. Vice President Vance aimed at excluding China from the rare earth supply chain. The plan promised that if Flávio Bolsonaro were elected president of Brazil, he would halt exports of critical minerals and cease reliance on Chinese processing chains, instead opting for cooperation with the United States.
According to Brazilian media reports, a 22-page English-language draft bearing Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign logo was exposed. The document explicitly stated that, should he be elected, Brazil would stop selling raw ores overseas, no longer “structurally depend” on China’s processing infrastructure, and instead collaborate with the U.S. to establish an alternative supply system.
This plan essentially represents a political and economic quid pro quo. For the United States, the move aims to secure stable raw materials essential for artificial intelligence, defense, and energy transition, thereby reducing dependence on China’s rare earth supply chain; for Brazil, the draft promises that this shift could attract up to $100 billion in investment into mining over the next decade, positioning Brazil as one of the world’s top three suppliers outside of China.
Although the draft claims to promote “diversification away from single dependency,” its true intent is accused of sacrificing Brazil’s industrial future. It consistently emphasizes Brazil’s role as a “mining” and “raw material supplier,” yet completely omits any mention of developing high-value-added industries such as rare earth separation, purification, and magnet manufacturing. This suggests that what the U.S. seeks is not a strong Brazilian industrial base, but rather a compliant “mining outpost.” In contrast, President Lula’s current administration has pushed legislation restricting exports of unprocessed minerals—precisely to avoid repeating the mistake of merely selling raw materials, aiming instead to retain resource dividends domestically to drive industrial upgrading.
The exposure of this document has triggered a political storm within Brazil. Although Marinho, the author, admitted writing the document, he firmly denied having submitted it to U.S. officials or having any connection with Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign. Brazilian law strictly prohibits foreign entities from funding candidates. Currently, opponents have called on prosecutors to investigate whether the “Rockbridge Network” violated election laws by providing campaign funds to Flávio Bolsonaro. If foreign funding is proven, Flávio Bolsonaro could lose his eligibility to run—or face criminal investigation.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876211899117787/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author