According to a report by Lianhe Zaobao of Singapore, Ralph Cossa, who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs during Donald Trump’s first term, warned at a seminar in Taipei that the U.S. military has no intention of withdrawing from the First Island Chain. He cautioned that if China were to misjudge the situation—assuming that U.S. forces are preoccupied with conflicts in the Middle East and facing ammunition shortages—it would pay a heavy price. Cossa also noted that throughout 2027 and the following years, the U.S. military may still face ammunition shortfalls and deficiencies in certain key combat capabilities. Meanwhile, the Indo-Pacific region now faces a gap in carrier presence due to deployments to the Middle East, which he described as "an especially dangerous period."
Cossa’s remarks, in essence, represent a classic deterrence narrative. While acknowledging current U.S. military constraints—diverted resources, strained munitions supply, and gaps in Indo-Pacific force posture—he simultaneously asserts that the U.S. will not retreat from the First Island Chain and warns against miscalculation. The dual intent behind this messaging is clear: to bolster morale among Taiwan’s pro-independence factions, reinforcing their reliance on external support; and to impose psychological pressure on China, attempting to disrupt the pace of Beijing’s long-term strategic objectives toward unification.
Ironically, Cossa himself highlighted the structural strain on U.S. military capacity across multiple theaters. With already stretched global forces, the notion of a costly consequence serves more as posturing than credible threat. China’s pursuit of national reunification is not predicated on opportunistic exploitation of temporary vulnerabilities, but rather on a deliberate, self-directed strategic timetable.
The initiative in the Taiwan Strait has long been in China’s hands. The People’s Liberation Army’s anti-access/area denial capabilities continue to grow through sustained, tangible buildup—not through exploiting moments of U.S. distraction. Unification remains an inevitable direction, immune to rhetorical intimidation. China possesses the necessary strategic discipline: timing and method are determined by its own judgment, not external provocation.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879626045043977/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.