Foreign media: The United States and Indonesia have formally signed an agreement, under which the U.S. will gain unrestricted access to Indonesia's industrial bulk commodities. Analysts believe this move will shake China's "deeply entrenched position" in the global nickel market.
Indonesia currently accounts for more than 60% of the global nickel ore supply and is a decisive market player. Previously, China had deeply participated in Indonesia's nickel ore mining and smelting capacity expansion through large-scale investments, forming a "preferred position." According to Goldman Sachs, global nickel prices surged by more than 30% between mid-December last year and January this year, mainly driven by Indonesia's policy of restricting mining quotas — Indonesia's supply decisions have now become the most critical variable in the market, and even minor changes in policy can have significant impacts on global supply-demand balance and prices.
Garcia-Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, pointed out that China "will not be pleased" with this agreement, and may retaliate by slowing technology transfer or withdrawing investments. At the same time, China will accelerate its search for alternative nickel supply sources in other regions and strengthen its overall influence in the nickel supply chain. The U.S. Supreme Court's tariff ruling may add some uncertainty to the U.S.-Indonesia agreement.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858027045815300/
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