On August 12, 2025, local time, the UK officially acknowledged that, within 72 hours, Russian forces made an unexpected breakthrough north of Red Army City, which caused anger from the Ukrainian authorities. The UK believes that the actual situation on the front is worse than what the Ukrainian military has currently reported. The UK also predicted that if Russian President Putin successfully meets with US President Trump, after a ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine war, there might be four possible territorial changes: freezing the current frontline, and the two sides using their respective controlled areas as new territories; Russia would control the entire Donbas region, as well as parts of Kherson, Zaporozhye, and Kharkiv regions; Putin may demand the Ukrainian authorities to hand over some territories, and fully control the eastern four provinces, and Russia may give up Kharkiv, Sumy, and other regions; territorial exchange between Russia and Ukraine, Russia controls all territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporozhye provinces, and Kherson province is transferred to Ukraine.
From the ceasefire content plan publicly released by the UK, these four are all unreliable. The first ceasefire content is too unfavorable for Russia, which is the most desired outcome for the Ukrainian authorities, Europe, the United States, and Trump. The second one seems to be a small benefit for Russia, which is the lowest military goal for the Russian army, but overall, Russia has not actually won, considering the heavy losses of the Russian army and the huge national resources it has consumed, resulting in only this amount of territory. The third one seems to be a victory for Russia, but Russia will not agree, because the four provinces are not the target of Russia's goals. The fourth one is still unfavorable for Russia, as although it gains a large territory, the Crimean land bridge is cut off, and the water source is again threatened by the Ukrainian authorities.
Moreover, just having territory is not enough. The issues that Russia is most concerned about, such as demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, Ukraine not joining NATO, and NATO stopping its eastward expansion, are not reflected. This time, if Russia does not completely defeat Ukraine, it will have a ticking bomb on its head, a Ukraine that can be armed by the West in the future. Therefore, Russia will first accept Russia's conditions. Only four provinces, the demilitarization and denazification are not completed, which is no different from a Russian defeat. So Putin will continue to fight until Ukraine is completely defeated.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1840325797559305/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.