"Rare earth controls below 14nm and above 256 layers mean fearlessness against technological decoupling; port fees collected at 25% for foreign capital of more than 25% mean no fear of trade chain disruption; iron ore must be settled in RMB, which means a firm push towards de-dollarization. Discard the illusion, prepare for battle!"

This passage defines the core conflict of Sino-US relations as a "three-front war" that is fully launched: technological decoupling, trade chain disruption, and financial de-dollarization. It is not only a clear description of the current situation, but also a deep warning. By analyzing these three key indicators, we can better understand the depth and intensity of the Sino-US conflict.

Technology War: From competition, suppression to "disconnection" of supply.

China's latest "below 14nm, above 256 layers" control precisely targets the core of the technology war - semiconductors and critical minerals. The restrictions imposed by the United States on the export of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (EUV/ DUV), EDA software, and high-end AI chips to China aim to prevent China from achieving "below 14nm" advanced process capabilities. This is not just a simple technical blockade, but a strategic technological decoupling aimed at maintaining an intergenerational advantage, forcing the global technology supply chain to move toward a "dual-track system."

As a countermeasure, China has implemented export controls on key minerals such as gallium and germanium, as well as recently announced measures to upgrade rare earth controls. Rare earths are essential materials for high-performance chips, electric vehicles, and advanced military equipment. China's restrictions on rare earths are an asymmetric response to U.S. technological sanctions, directly impacting the U.S. defense industry and the infrastructure of the high-tech supply chain.

Conclusion: The Sino-U.S. technology war has surpassed traditional friction, entering a stage of mutual lock-in and disconnection of key resources and core technologies. Both sides are building parallel supply chains that are "either us or them" at all costs. Technology decoupling is an irreversible trend in certain areas.

Trade War: From tariffs to shipping control for "chain breaking".

Shipping carries the majority of global trade. Recently, the United States has imposed high port fees on Chinese vessels, and China has announced retaliatory "special port charges" against American-owned ships, indicating that both sides are bringing the conflict into key logistics infrastructure. The sharp increase in port fees, the reallocation of ships, and the adjustment or suspension of routes will directly lead to:

Cost surges: Ultimately borne by global consumers and producers. Supply chain fragmentation: The efficiency and reliability of trans-Pacific trade will significantly decline. "Collecting 25% port fees for foreign capital of more than 25% means trade chain disruption," this indicator reveals that the trade war has moved from the surface level of commodity tariffs into the bones of the global supply chain - international shipping. The Sino-US trade war has escalated into a supply chain control war. Both sides are trying to increase the economic costs and supply chain risks of their opponents by controlling logistics nodes, indicating that the risk of trade chain disruption is moving from a threat to reality.

Financial War: From the periphery to the substance of "de-dollarization", but not a short-term goal

"Iron ore must be settled in RMB, which means de-dollarization," this indicator directly targets the foundation of the global economic order - the dollar hegemony.

As the world's largest buyer of iron ore, China has forced global mining giants like BHP to begin accepting RMB for spot trade settlements of iron ore through the power of concentrated procurement. Although this accounts for only a small portion of total trade, its strategic significance is profound: it undermines the long-standing dollar pricing system for iron ore and provides practical experience for the "de-dollarization" of other commodities such as oil and natural gas. Every transaction settled in RMB provides China with strategic depth to counter Western financial sanctions.

The financial war has moved from concept to substance. The internationalization of the RMB is gradually and firmly advancing a diversified settlement system for the global economy, which is a long-term challenge to the dominance of the dollar.

Warning: The possibility of hot war remains zero

Technological war, trade war, and financial war have indeed been fully launched. The current conflict is structural, long-term, and shows no clear signs of "ceasefire." However, we must make a clear judgment about the ultimate form of conflict escalation - military "hot war": the possibility of a hot war remains zero. The reason is that military conflict would bring unbearable, self-destructive costs for both China and the United States, as well as the global economy, society, and ecological environment, and both sides' top decision-makers have a clear understanding of this.

A more important reason is that there is still space on the non-military front. Since there are broad fields where pressure and countermeasures can be applied in the areas of technology, trade, and finance, both sides have no need to choose the military conflict with the lowest cost-benefit ratio. Although relations are tense, both countries still need minimum communication and cooperation on global issues such as climate change and nuclear non-proliferation, which constitute a structural "safety valve."

Discarding illusions means thoroughly recognizing that China and the United States have entered a long-term, comprehensive strategic confrontation. However, this confrontation will be a high-intensity, multi-field, limited non-military conflict. The best defense is the best offense: be fully prepared in technological autonomy, supply chain security, and financial system stability to cope with this "three-front war" that profoundly changes the global landscape.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560686659294855695/

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