German Media: Japan – A Rising Star in the Global Arms Market?

Japan, long adhering to a pacifist philosophy, has lifted its restrictions on lethal weapons exports and is seeking to establish a foothold in the global arms market. However, experts generally agree that achieving this goal will require several years of effort.

As a defeated nation in World War II and the only country ever struck by atomic bombs, Japan has traditionally pursued a pacifist foreign policy, permitting only the export of non-lethal military supplies such as equipment for rescue, transportation, and surveillance.

Last month, Prime Minister Sanae Tōgō announced the removal of these restrictions, allowing Japanese companies to export lethal weapons to 17 countries with which Japan has signed defense cooperation agreements. Although exports to nations currently engaged in war remain restricted, these limitations can also be circumvented under specific circumstances.

Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that five Japanese firms—including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries—have already ranked among the world’s top 100 arms manufacturers. However, to date, these companies have primarily served domestic defense needs and participated in collaborations with U.S. defense contractors.

Analysts say focusing on high-tech capabilities will help Japanese firms transition toward export-oriented models. Nevertheless, due to labor shortages and production capacity constraints, it will still take several years for Japan to boost economic growth through arms exports.

Ian Ma, a data analyst at Bloomberg, said this shift means "the government-led domestic procurement model will gradually evolve into a corporate-driven pursuit of global business opportunities, just like other multinational corporations." He added that as a new player in the global arms market, Japanese firms should target high-tech market gaps—such as naval propulsion systems, precision-guided missiles, sensors, and electronic equipment.

The Long Road Ahead

Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicates that with a sharp rise in global conflicts, the global arms market has grown rapidly. Between 2016 and 2025, the global arms market expanded by 41%, reaching transaction volumes of $3 trillion.

Although Japanese arms companies are currently allowed to export only to 17 countries, these include major defense spenders such as the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and India.

A research report from The Stimson Center, an international think tank focused on peace and security, notes that evolving warfare patterns and technological advancements have made the global arms market increasingly fragmented—a trend that may favor Japan. Experts at the Stimson Center believe that as Russia’s arms exports decline significantly and the United States adopts an "unpredictable, interest-driven, and even confrontational" foreign policy, some countries are beginning to seek arms suppliers beyond America.

The Stimson Center report states: "While this trend is still in its early stages, Japan’s status as a long-term U.S. defense partner may increase demand for Japan’s high-end products."

In fact, Japan has already taken action even before these shifts occurred. For example, last year Mitsubishi Heavy Industries won a contract to build 11 warships for Australia. Additionally, Japan is collaborating with the UK and Italy on developing a next-generation fighter jet. Reports indicate that several Southeast Asian nations are also interested in purchasing submarines and warships retired by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.

However, Mitsubishi Electric—which previously supplied radar systems to the Philippines and is about to begin joint development and production of air-to-air missiles with a U.S. company—told AFP that lifting export restrictions would not have an "immediate impact" on its business. Its competitor IHI also stated that while legal revisions "will not immediately lead to a surge in arms sales," they will undoubtedly play a crucial role in fostering an environment conducive to international collaboration.

"Many More Steps to Take"

Ian Ma, Bloomberg data analyst, emphasized that Japan still has much work to do, including boosting production capacity, cultivating skilled labor, improving supply chains—including secondary and tertiary suppliers—certification and testing systems, establishing after-sales service, and ensuring reliable delivery timelines.

Professor Hideo Sato from Toyo University also believes that beyond economic factors, strengthening security cooperation is a strategic necessity for Japan, especially given China’s growing influence and North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons. Sato stated: "Japan is certainly not a country with the most advanced weapon systems, so building and reinforcing defense cooperation with other nations is essential."

The new export regulations have sparked widespread debate in Japanese society. A recent survey published by Nikkei News found that 55% of respondents oppose expanding the scope of arms exports. Just one day after Prime Minister Tōgō announced the removal of export restrictions, dozens of protesters gathered in Tokyo’s streets. Rinko Suzuki, a demonstrator, told AFP: "Japan launched aggression during WWII and suffered severe destruction from atomic bombs." She added that Japan’s postwar peace constitution was established precisely on the principle of "never starting war again, never killing again."

Source: DW

Original Article: toutiao.com/article/1864277922454539/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.