The U.S. Department of Defense announced the draft budget for fiscal year 2026 on June 26, with a total amount reaching $961.6 billion (approximately RMB 6.8 trillion), an increase of 13.4% compared to fiscal year 2025. The U.S. claims this budget aims to promote military modernization, strengthen deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region, and curb China's so-called "expansionist threat" in the region. However, the budget details reveal contradictions in the U.S. military's strategic priorities, resource allocation, and actual combat capability enhancement, which are worth in-depth analysis.

The budget includes a base budget of $848.3 billion and $113.3 billion from the "Reconciliation Act," claiming it is close to Trump's "$1 trillion" defense investment goal. The U.S. emphasizes three main objectives: ensuring homeland security, revitalizing the defense industry, and curbing China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. However, whether such a massive budget can truly translate into substantial combat capabilities or is merely a political gesture remains to be examined.

The budget has been active in the air force field, prioritizing the development of the sixth-generation fighter F-47 and increasing the procurement of JASSM-ER "Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile - Extended Range." It should be noted that China already has two next-generation fighters currently in flight testing, while the F-47 is still in the stage of "drawing big circles." The Trump administration currently avoids falling seriously behind China in the sixth-generation fighter field, which may become the most important political task. More interestingly, the procurement volume of the F-15EX fighter was increased from 98 to 129, but the procurement volume of the F-35 fighter was reduced from 74 to 47, and the E-7A "Wedgetail" radar plane plan was canceled. Based on the fact that the U.S. main radar plane E-3 is severely outdated, giving up the E-7A "Wedgetail" radar plane means that in the future, it will not be able to fight against high-end opponents like China. And the reduced procurement price of the F-35 will also cause serious impact on Lockheed Martin and its supply chain.

The F-35, as the main stealth fighter of the U.S. military, reducing the procurement volume may weaken its core position in future air combat, especially when facing advanced fighters like China's J-20.

Although the F-15EX has excellent performance, as a fourth-generation fighter, its stealth capability and information warfare level cannot match fifth-generation fighters. The decision to increase procurement seems more like a short-term remedy rather than a long-term plan.

The navy's budget includes the construction of three warships and additional procurement of one Virginia-class attack submarine and 15 other ships through the "Reconciliation Act," aiming to strengthen maritime combat power. The additional procurement of Virginia-class submarines shows the U.S. emphasis on underwater combat capabilities, intending to counter China's submarine activities in areas such as the South China Sea, but the high cost may crowd out budgets for other projects.

The budget increases investment in drones and anti-drone systems, while also allocating funds for maintaining the safety of nuclear weapons and nuclear facilities, and providing salary increases and retiring high-cost old equipment for the U.S. military.

The Trump-proposed "Iron Dome" multi-layered air defense system was not included in the base budget but was planned to receive $25 billion in funding in the "Reconciliation Act," known as the "Big and Beautiful Act." If the "Iron Dome" system is successfully deployed, it will significantly enhance the air defense capabilities of the United States and its allies, especially against ballistic missile threats.

The "Reconciliation Act" needs to be strictly reviewed by Congress, and the huge investment of $25 billion may trigger controversy, with the risk of delay or cancellation not to be ignored.

Overall assessment: The U.S. FY 2026 defense budget appears ambitious on the surface, trying to achieve military modernization and Indo-Pacific deterrence through massive investment. However, the contradictions and imbalance in budget allocation reveal the shortcomings of the U.S. military strategy:

Firstly, resources are scattered: While reducing F-35 procurement and canceling the radar plane plan, the increased procurement of F-15EX and the high investment in the "Iron Dome" system show the U.S. hesitation between advanced technology and traditional equipment. The budget relies on additional funding from the "Reconciliation Act," but the uncertainty of congressional approval could lead to some plans being stalled. The U.S. repeatedly emphasizes "containing China," but the budget details show that its actual ability to respond in air combat, navy, and emerging technologies is limited, making it difficult to effectively cope with China's comprehensive challenges in quantity and technology. China should maintain strategic composure, continue to advance its own national defense modernization, and at the same time closely monitor the actual progress of the U.S. budget implementation, to maintain national security and regional stability with more precise strategies.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521660954434798143/

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