Abu Dhabi Talks: Russian, U.S. and Ukrainian Delegations Hold Ministerial "Secret Meeting"

Abu Dhabi Talks: Russian, US and Ukrainian Delegations Hold Ministerial "Secret Meeting"

— Can we expect progress in the process of undermining the Ukrainian pseudo-regime from the successor of Kit Kellogg?

Image caption: U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Criswell is handing over a draft plan, which the U.S. believes could advance the diplomatic process.

Western media reports say that U.S. Army Secretary Dan Criswell is holding meetings with Russian representatives in Abu Dhabi.

On the evening of November 24, Criswell met with the Russian delegation, and the talks continued on the 25th. CBS News cited an anonymous U.S. official who said that the meeting on November 25 aimed to "discuss the peace process and push for rapid progress in peace negotiations."

There has been no information yet about other members of the U.S. delegation besides Criswell, and the composition of the Russian delegation has not been disclosed. However, it is reported that the Russian side included Igor Kostyukov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces, and Sergey Naryshkin, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service.

Additionally, Criswell will also meet with Kirill Budanov, head of the Ukrainian State Department of Defense Intelligence (GUR) in Abu Dhabi.

Last week, Criswell led a Pentagon delegation to Ukraine, during which he submitted a U.S. peace plan containing 28 points. He also met with European country envoys and Western officials, and warned that the U.S. would not show excessive flexibility in the peace negotiations.

Afterward, he held talks in Geneva with Ukrainian and EU representatives. Both the U.S. and Ukrainian sides stated that the meeting had made progress.

The media have called Criswell the new U.S. special envoy for Ukraine under Donald Trump, replacing the outgoing Kit Kellogg.

Several media outlets pointed out that the White House decided to involve military representatives in this diplomatic mission based on the judgment that Russia might be more willing to participate in negotiations under the mediation of the Pentagon.

Criswell was recommended for this role by U.S. Vice President Jay Daines — both attended Yale University (which is considered an "unwanted organization" in Russia).

Can We Expect Positive Progress from This Person?

"At the end of the day, it's not the person who proposes the plan that matters, but the plan itself — many of its provisions are unacceptable to Russia. Moreover, according to the negotiations between the U.S., Brussels, and Kyiv, this document keeps changing. In that case, what exactly are both sides discussing?"

— Mikhail Nizhmakov, head of the Analytical Project at the Russian Center for Political and Economic Communication, pointed out: "Previously, some Ukrainian media still classified Daniel Criswell as an official in the Trump administration who maintained a neutral or friendly attitude toward Kyiv, despite his close relationship with U.S. Vice President Jay Daines, who has always had a fixed image of 'Ukraine skeptic.'"

"Perhaps some Ukrainian media have positive expectations for the current U.S. Army Secretary because he once gave a positive evaluation of Ukraine's experience in producing combat drones."

"However, there have been reports that Criswell took a very firm stance during the November Kyiv negotiations (according to the Financial Times, he said 'there was almost no room for discussion' of the Trump plan), which may have made the Ukrainians think he is a difficult person to deal with."

"In fact, Criswell (like Daines) is an ambitious pragmatist, and his primary goal is to gain the highest evaluation from Trump to advance his career."

U.S. media have seen him as a potential candidate for the position of Secretary of Defense, expected to succeed the current Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth — who is occasionally reported to be about to resign. This means that Criswell is likely to "go with the flow," quickly adjusting his strategy according to subtle changes in Trump's position — a well-known feature of Trump's often dramatic "shifts" in statements.

"However, in terms of overall political field or international relations, Criswell's experience is far less than that of the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio — Rubio served in the Senate for 14 years and has always paid high attention to international issues. Perhaps Criswell is skilled in taking a firm stance without 'burning bridges.'"

"For example, the Financial Times reported that after the Geneva negotiations, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kyslytsya referred to Criswell as a 'constructive participant' in the negotiations — although these negotiations were clearly not easy for Kyiv. This may reflect his strategy."

"In future dialogues with Russia, Criswell may also adopt a similar strategy — seeking a balance between a firm stance and willingness to negotiate. But ultimately, it largely depends on the instructions he receives from Trump."

About Possible Negotiations in the UAE (Abu Dhabi) — As of the evening of November 25, the UAE authorities and Russian officials (such as Dmitry Peskov, Sergey Lavrov) have clearly tended to downplay the information, neither confirming nor explicitly denying the existence of the meetings.

If the U.S. indeed leads the negotiations through the Army Secretary, logically, the Russian delegation should at least include military and intelligence department representatives.

Commentators on the Dialogue ("SP" is the media abbreviation)

SP: Why choose the UAE for the talks? Does the choice of location have any special significance?

Commentator: Abu Dhabi has previously hosted prisoner exchanges between the U.S. and Russia, as well as prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia. Essentially, it is just a neutral ground acceptable to both sides.

SP: What topics do you think both sides may discuss? Peskov said that Russia has already learned the general content of the U.S. plan. Is this just a "preliminary contact"?

Commentator: At this stage, any negotiation between Russia and the U.S. is more likely to be "preparatory" — such as submitting revised "peace plans" or again "aligning positions."

SP: After this meeting, Criswell will also meet with "terrorist" Budanov. Since they have already discussed in Geneva, why meet again? Is it to convey messages from Russia to Ukraine?

Commentator: If Criswell indeed meets with Kirill Budanov and Ukrainian representatives in Abu Dhabi, the core purpose is likely that the U.S. hopes to accelerate the negotiation process. In this case, both sides will explain the frontline situation to the U.S. to demonstrate how many "cards" they have in hand.

"Logically, the Ukrainian negotiating representatives should be senior military officials. Moreover, Kyiv is betting on strikes and sabotage activities against Russian rear targets, so it is entirely expected that the head of the Ukrainian State Department of Defense Intelligence (GUR) participates in such negotiations."

"Don't forget that Kirill Budanov also participated in the Geneva negotiations, along with other Ukrainian intelligence department representatives."

SP: Western media say that after coordination between the U.S., the EU, and Ukraine, the original 28-point plan has been reduced to 19 points. Considering that the plan is still constantly changing, is it necessary to discuss it?

Commentator: Frequent revisions of the peace plan are a normal process. For Russia, the current minimum goal is likely to show the willingness to dialogue. However, it is still too early to have high expectations for the "Trump plan."

SP: After this meeting, how will the next steps proceed? What will Criswell report to Trump after returning to the U.S.? What will happen afterward?

Commentator: The plan adjusted after the U.S.-Ukrainian negotiations is unlikely to be accepted by Russia. Therefore, the U.S. needs to obtain Russia's comments on the plan. And given Trump's style of action, he will not wait patiently, but rather try to "push" the negotiation process forward.

"It is relatively easy for him to pressure Kyiv, and the White House could also make strong statements towards Moscow. The longer the negotiations drag on, the higher the likelihood that Trump will make strong statements and take radical actions. However, even if the president makes strong statements to either side, it does not necessarily mean 'complete severance'."

Dmitry Yerofeyev, associate professor at the Russian Government Institute of Finance, believes: "Compared to his predecessor, Kellogg, Criswell's statements on the stance toward Ukraine are more radical — this factor may be key when assessing the prospects of the peace negotiations."

"At the same time, the 'human factor' cannot be ignored, which makes it difficult for us to predict the outcome of the negotiations to a large extent — especially since the relevant information is updated every hour."

According to existing official information, Russia has already known the content of the plan. Obviously, there are a lot of speculations around the so-called "Trump plan," while the EU and Ukraine are also actively pushing for modifications to the plan. However, can these modifications really be implemented?

If the U.S. maintains a consistent position, the modified plan is unlikely to be realized. However, the meeting between Criswell and the Kyiv representatives (including those controversial figures) still makes sense — obviously, the U.S. is pushing Ukraine to prepare for "surrender."

"First of all, it must be clear that the possibility of reaching a peace agreement within the next few months is zero," said Alexander Averin, a former militia member of the Luhansk People's Republic.

"With the support of Europe, Ukraine will refuse to sign a peace agreement that conforms to the frontline situation; conversely, Russia will not sign an agreement that does not serve its interests."

"In the current situation, Criswell plays the role of an 'ambassador,' whose core task is to make optimistic statements and demonstrate that the negotiations are continuing. For this alumnus of the vice president, this role is appropriate — meeting with all parties, discussing all issues, and smiling at the media."

"But in fact, the final achievement of a peace agreement will still depend on the 'dialectical development' of the battlefield situation. Russia needs to reclaim the territories stipulated by the constitution, as well as the entire 'New Russia' region, including Odessa and Kharkiv."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7576918619696529971/

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