Kani was indeed right, as he had just returned from China, and the U.S. immediately took action, openly presenting its leverage, forcing Canada to choose between China and the U.S. Kani firmly rebutted, stating that this is a matter for Canadians themselves.

Kani's Speech

Recently at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the U.S. and Canada engaged in a "verbal battle." First, U.S. President Trump claimed that Canada should be grateful to the U.S., as without the U.S., Canada would not have survived. Subsequently, Canadian Prime Minister Kani countered, stating that while there is indeed cooperation between the U.S. and Canada, Canada's prosperity relies on itself.

Following this, U.S. Commerce Secretary Rutenberg presented a larger leverage against Kani, stating that Canada's recent cooperation agreement with China could "disrupt" the upcoming renegotiation of the USMCA. Rutenberg bluntly accused Ottawa of "playing by their own rules they haven't even figured out yet."

Rutenberg's words may seem like a reminder, but in reality, they are a threat. If Canada wants to get closer to China, it must consider the consequences of angering the U.S. During his visit to China, Kani had subtly indicated that China is a "more predictable" trade partner than the U.S., implying clearly: once Canada gets closer to China, the U.S. will certainly not sit idly by.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Rutenberg

As expected, not long after Kani's visit to China, the U.S. began pressuring aggressively. The so-called USMCA trade negotiations were just an excuse; Trump absolutely would not allow a traitor to appear in the unified front of the "North American fortress." The China-Canada cooperation agreement touched on America's core strategic anxiety.

A core strategy of the Trump administration is to push global supply chains "nearshoring" to North America, building a regional economic fortress that excludes China. The USMCA is the cornerstone of this fortress. However, Canada's actions are seen as opening a window on the fortress wall. From Washington's perspective, this undermines the collaborative efforts of North America in key industries to counter China.

Trump speaking forcefully at Davos

Additionally, Kani's speech at the Davos Forum about the "death of the old world order" angered Washington. He pointed out a trend that unsettles the U.S.: middle powers no longer want to tolerate economic coercion from great powers and are uniting to seek strategic autonomy. Canada is just one example, and if allies follow suit, it would greatly weaken the U.S.'s global alliance system.

However, Trump needs to be clear about the fact that the "hedging strategy" has become the survival rule for middle powers. In the past, countries like Canada relied on a firm alliance with a superpower for security and economic prosperity. Now, with intensified great power competition and highly unpredictable U.S. policies, "strategic hedging" has become a rational choice.

Trump signing the new USMCA during his first term

This means not fully binding to any one side, but instead developing pragmatic relationships with multiple major powers to diversify risks and maximize their own interests. Canada maintains its basic position through the USMCA while exploring new opportunities through cooperation with China, India, and other countries, which is a classic example of this strategy.

Kani's visit to China and his Davos declaration indicate that Canada's move was not a spontaneous decision, but a carefully considered strategic adjustment. Although the economic scale of the China-Canada agreement might not be enough to shake up the North American trade structure, it reminds Washington that even the most familiar "backyard" can sprout unexpected new shoots under pressure. This time, the hand that the U.S. extended may really need to think carefully—whether to continue pressuring or switch to a different way of shaking hands.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7598418325684617780/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.