Recently, the situation of the US-Japan trade negotiation has been full of twists and turns, attracting global attention. According to Bloomberg reports, after entering the second round of negotiations, the US-Japan trade talks were declared completely broken off. This news instantly caused a shock in the international economic field, and what happened next made people even more surprised.
In the negotiation, the US side refused to exempt Japan from the 10% reciprocal tariff, which greatly upset the Japanese side. The negotiation representative Akira Akazawa was ordered to withdraw from the negotiation and return home for a report.
But that's not all, the "big news" kept coming. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato openly stated in a live broadcast to the world: "It is only natural for Japan to use its held US Treasury bonds as negotiation chips." Once this statement was made, the entire venue was shocked, and even the on-site US and Japanese media were stunned by this sudden statement.
Bloomberg subsequently published an article pointing out that Japan's move is undoubtedly a public message to the United States, attempting to turn its held US Treasury bonds into a powerful "weapon" in trade negotiations. It should be noted that Japan is the second largest holder of US Treasury bonds, with a holding scale of up to $1.1 trillion. Such a large scale of held US Treasury bonds, once used as negotiation chips, will have an influence that cannot be underestimated.
The US media also mentioned that Trump temporarily exempted tariffs for 90 days due to the collapse of the US bond market, and there were rumors at that time that it was caused by Japan selling US Treasury bonds. Now that the US side refused to exempt tariffs on Japan during the negotiation, Japan seems really ready to use the "nuclear weapon" of selling US Treasury bonds to threaten the United States. What made the White House feel even more hurtful was that Japan's intention to signal "together with China" was almost explicit in their statement.
From a tactical perspective, Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is as high as 400%, and there are many dollar financings. If they really sell US Treasury bonds, Japan will also suffer strong retaliation from the US side, such as severe "dollar famine" in the domestic market, causing a huge impact on its economy.
However, from a strategic point of view, Japan's pillar industries, automobiles and steel, have suffered significant blows due to US tariffs, which will affect Japan's economic development for many years to come. Therefore, both US and Japanese media have comments suggesting that it is not excluded that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet might choose to "take a bold gamble" when driven to desperation.
Regarding Japan's call to China, US media generally believe that this is mainly to exert greater psychological pressure on the White House, forcing the US to make concessions in future possible trade negotiations. Japanese media have many views suggesting that this is one of the important signals of Japan's economic diversification cooperation. It shows that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet, under the great changes in the current international trade situation, is paying more attention to promoting "trade and investment diversification", no longer wanting to put all eggs in the American basket.
Looking back at the history of US-Japan negotiations, the contradictions between the two sides have been long-standing. Since the new US government took office, it has stubbornly adhered to unilateralism and protectionism, brazenly introducing so-called "reciprocal tariffs" to coerce other countries, attempting to squeeze short-term economic benefits through extreme pressure. As an ally of the United States, Japan could not escape either. The United States, using the "reciprocal tariff" framework, was unwilling to reduce tariffs on cars, steel, and aluminum, which are crucial to Japan's economy. The automobile industry alone absorbs 8% of the national workforce. Japan naturally would not easily compromise and firmly opposed the US proposal, calling for a comprehensive review of relevant measures.
According to reports from Japan's Kyodo News Agency, the second round of US-Japan tariff negotiations in Washington lasted for two hours, and Shigeru Ishiba said: "The US and Japan had a constructive and in-depth discussion, but we still haven't found common ground." This is already the second negotiation that has collapsed. Under Trump's strong pressure, Japan showed rare firmness.
Although both sides agreed to hold the third round of negotiations in late May or early June, the outside world generally does not hold optimistic expectations. On one hand, Trump demands a lot; he is unwilling to give in on the tariff issue and also wants to take advantage of Japan on issues like exchange rates and defense. On the other hand, after taking office, Shigeru Ishiba's administration formulated a diversified strategy, no longer betting solely on the United States, which makes the negotiation positions of both sides differ greatly.
After taking office, Shigeru Ishiba actively conducted diplomatic activities, visiting Southeast Asia twice and strengthening cooperation in economic and trade, defense, and other fields. Unlike before, this time Shigeru Ishiba emphasized Japan's core role more strongly and rarely mentioned the United States. ASEAN countries also keenly sensed the current international situation and strengthened bilateral relations tacitly, pushing forward the regional "de-Americanization" process to a certain extent. These actions indicate that Shigeru Ishiba is trying hard to free himself from excessive US constraints and seek a more independent foreign policy and economic development path.
Moreover, from the perspective of the global economic landscape, the tariff war initiated by the United States not only harmed its trading partners but also severely impacted the world economy, damaging the well-being of people from various countries, including Americans. American businesses importing goods have been hit hard by tariffs, supply chains face disruptions, exports face countermeasures from other countries, domestic prices rise, household debt burdens increase, unemployment rates rise, and public dissatisfaction grows, leading to protests against the US government's trade policies in multiple locations.
China, as a responsible major country, immediately resolutely countered the US trade bullying behavior, effectively safeguarding the international rule order, buying more time and space for all countries to respond to US trade bullying, significantly enhancing the confidence and determination of the international community to unite against bullying.
Considering various factors, Japan's tough stance in the US-Japan trade negotiations is not accidental. The Shigeru Ishiba cabinet has its own底气and considerations. Whether from Japan's own economic development needs or from changes in the international situation, Japan is trying to find new directions and cooperation opportunities. China's important position on the international economic stage also makes Japan look toward China when seeking breakthroughs.
What will happen to the future of US-Japan trade negotiations? Will Japan really sell US Treasury bonds? Will there be more cooperation between China and Japan in the economic field? These questions are worth our continued attention.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7500067747854959156/
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