[Source/Observer Network Qi Qian] In recent years, the US government has been committed to promoting the return of manufacturing, including the renewable energy industry. However, on April 3, The New York Times published an article stating that after Trump took office, federal support for many renewable energy projects was frozen and tariffs were imposed on various parts of the industry supply chain. The report believes that the transition of the United States to clean energy will be completely disrupted, and the country's energy export landscape will also be affected.

Some scholars from American think tanks pointed out that in the face of policy pressures such as tariffs, unless Chinese green enterprises "have money but nowhere to spend it," it is unlikely that they will invest in the United States in the future. The scholar also said that this seems to mean the failure of Biden's green energy strategy aimed at "defeating China's dominance."

"With the cry of 'Drill, baby, drill,' Trump first froze federal support for many renewable energy projects and then imposed tariffs," The New York Times pointed out. The trade war initiated by Trump is expected to increase the cost of almost all components of US clean energy production, from steel for wind turbines to batteries for electric vehicles.

Trump proposed the slogan "Drill, baby, drill," advocating the development of fossil fuels. Video screenshot

Experts said that Trump's above measures will bring complex impacts to the domestic energy structure of the United States.

The report stated that after all, Trump's imposition of high tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other goods imported from the EU, China, and Southeast Asia not only affects renewable energy but also impacts the fossil fuel industry. This measure will increase the cost of building natural gas export terminals and drilling oil wells, despite Trump's previous promise to make US oil and gas production cheaper and more abundant.

Of course, the impact on the renewable energy industry is particularly significant. Vanessa Sharra, vice president of trade and international competitiveness at the American Clean Energy Association, said that the "policy whip" from the Trump administration cut off the supply chain of the industry, endangering Americans' access to affordable and reliable energy.

The report mentioned that people also generally expect Trump's tariff policies to reshape the global energy landscape.

In the past decade, US oil and gas exports have surged. However, European and Asian buyers are striving to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels to fulfill their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Trump's tariffs worsened this energy landscape. Analysts said that China or the EU may impose retaliatory tariffs on US fossil fuels, which could further weaken these exports.

Meanwhile, globally, the trend toward energy transformation has already emerged. This is largely due to China's growing capacity for large-scale, low-cost, and high-quality solar panels, wind turbines, and lithium-ion batteries. Currently, the United States still relies on Chinese imports in areas such as solar panel components and lithium-ion batteries.

Wind power plant in Taizhou, Zhejiang Province, Visual China

The report cited analysis indicating that Trump's move is not only disadvantageous to himself but also not harmful to others. Some analysts said that India is a relatively beneficiary of the shift in the US energy landscape. At the same time, Trump's tariffs will not severely impact China.

Antoine Vagneux-Jones, head of trade and supply chain at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said that India is increasing its domestic solar and battery manufacturing efforts and faces lower US tariffs than China or some major clean technology producing countries in Southeast Asia.

The New York Times pointed out that for China, it may increase exports to emerging markets such as Pakistan or Brazil in the future.

Data shows that over the past three years, the share of wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles exported by China to middle- and low-income countries has significantly increased. In 2022, about 65% of China's wind turbine exports went to high-income countries. But by 2024, more than 60% of China's wind turbine exports will go to middle- and low-income countries. China has announced plans to build factories in Nigeria, Indonesia, and other places.

Shuo Li, director of the China Climate Center at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said, "Unless they have money but nowhere to spend it (burn money), I don't see why Chinese clean technology companies would further invest in the US market." He also pointed out that under the impact of Trump's policies, Biden's energy transition strategy aimed at defeating China's dominance seems to have ended.

Ranking of the world's largest wind turbine manufacturers in 2023, with four of the top five and six of the top ten being Chinese companies, according to Bloomberg

According to reports, in recent years, tax credits and incentives provided by the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act have attracted many solar, wind, and battery manufacturers to open new factories in the United States. The United States currently has the capacity to produce 50 gigawatts of solar cell modules, but many basic components still rely on imports, such as batteries and wafers. This year, wind and solar energy are expected to account for 93% of the new power capacity added to the US grid.

However, affected by tariffs and Trump administration policies, and with uncertainty about whether Congress Republicans will repeal part or all of the incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act, many companies have suspended new investment plans in the United States or halted construction of new factories.

Coco Zhang, vice president of ING Group, a Dutch financial services company responsible for sustainable development investments, said that in the long term, the goal of relocating renewable energy production to the United States seems less likely to be achieved. She explained that manufacturers need to invest in the entire supply chain (steelmaking, mineral processing, assembly lines) to make it cost-effective.

This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

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