[Source/Observer Network, Xiong Chaoyi] "The United States may be sliding into another Middle East war, and no one is discussing how it will end."
On June 18 local time, CNN reported that history might repeat itself. President Trump is now being driven by the unfolding events, concerns over the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the pressure to follow through on his own words, potentially leading to a massive involvement in the Middle East conflict without any assurance of extrication.
After Israel's early attacks showed obvious progress, Trump's remarks took a sharp turn. More people are expecting that he will soon respond to Israel's calls and attempt a decisive strike on Iran's nuclear program, using weapons only the U.S. can provide to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities - the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.
"But Trump may be on the brink of a high-stakes gamble that will negate his own political principles," the report said. When Trump entered politics in 2015, he mocked former presidents who sought to overthrow regimes abroad. If this war with Iran happens, he will ignore the large opposition within the 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) camp, and this president who prioritized America first will become the very kind of interventionist he despises.
CNN pointed out that while Trump is planning a military strike against Iran, senior U.S. officials are avoiding talking about what might happen next. Given the U.S.'s military adventures in this century, which have taken nearly 20 years to extricate themselves from after starting wars, this silence is particularly abnormal.
"Anyone cheering for a war between the U.S. and Iran has quickly forgotten the disasters of the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War," said Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator from Connecticut. These conflicts eventually became quagmires, resulting in thousands of American deaths and giving rise to new insurgent forces targeting the U.S. and its regional allies.
Is Trump becoming the person he "disliked"?
In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in 2001, then-President George W. Bush launched the invasion of Afghanistan, expelling Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. However, after 20 years of failed nation-building efforts, the U.S. shamefully withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, thoroughly shattering former President Biden's self-proclaimed title as a "diplomatic expert."
In 2003, the U.S. also launched an invasion of Iraq, swiftly overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime but triggering a series of bloody rebellions, ultimately ending in failure. It wasn't until more than 20 years later that Iraq regained fragile stability.
As for another former U.S. president, Obama also had his failures. In 2011, persuaded by European allies and some aides, he toppled Gaddafi's regime in Libya. "We came, we saw, he died." The famous remark by then-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton regarding the collapse of Gaddafi's regime still echoes, yet America's arrogance in Libya has long dissipated, leaving behind only continuous instability and poverty.
CNN noted that as the current U.S. president, Trump certainly knows all of this. During the Republican primary debates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, he harshly criticized his rival, former President George W. Bush's brother, Jeb Bush: "The Iraq War was a huge mistake. This moment forever changed the Republican Party's hawkish tradition."
In August 2021, during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, witnesses captured images of U.S. Chinook helicopters flying over the U.S. embassy. AP
Last month, when Trump visited Saudi Arabia, he reminded the world: "So-called nation-builders have destroyed far more countries than they have built; those interventionists are intervening in complex societies they don't understand. They tell you what to do, but they don't know how themselves."
"Will Trump become the very example he criticized?" CNN asked.
Iran Is No Soft Target, Is the U.S. Prepared?
The U.S. hawks claim that a devastating yet restrained American military strike could destroy Iran's nuclear program. However, CNN argues that Iran is not like Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya; it will almost certainly respond, possibly attacking U.S. personnel and bases in the Middle East, forcing Trump into an escalation cycle with no clear endpoint.
Nightmare scenarios are easy to imagine: Iran might blockade the Strait of Hormuz to cut off oil transportation, thus triggering a global energy crisis; or attack oil fields of regional competitors like Saudi Arabia. Only the U.S. can lead the response, dragging this superpower deeper into the quagmire of regional warfare. Additionally, Iran might launch large-scale cyberattacks, bringing the war to U.S. soil.
If Iran's Islamic Revolution fails or its nuclear program, considered its "crown jewel," is destroyed, it could release political forces causing severe upheaval. In this country of 90 million people, including Persians, Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Turkmen, and sectarian rifts among Arab tribes, once suddenly plunged into a power vacuum, anarchy or worse situations could follow.
Then, millions of refugees would pour into the Middle East and Europe. Security vacuums could lead to civil wars. The lessons from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya indicate that terrorist breeding grounds often emerge alarmingly fast... the chaos might even spread to neighboring regions.
CNN asks, if Iran's exposed nuclear materials fall into the hands of terrorists or other nations after being struck by the U.S. and Israel, despite these chilling possibilities, Israel might have no time to consider them, given Netanyahu's claim that Iran possessing nuclear weapons would spell doom for Israel and the Jewish people.
However, whether looking at recent or distant history, there is doubt that a "U.S.-Israel joint action can achieve quick victory." Israeli months-long bombardments of Gaza have caused tens of thousands of Palestinian civilian casualties but have not eradicated Hamas; Iran is clearly a much tougher opponent. And America's historical interventions in Iran – including the CIA-supported coup in 1953, supporting the Shah's regime that ultimately triggered the Islamic Revolution, and backing Saddam Hussein's regime during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s – have almost always worsened the situation.
April 9, 2003, U.S. Marines prepare to topple Saddam's statue as they enter Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. The Washington Post
Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told CNN in an interview that Trump faces a crucial decision: "diplomatic de-escalation" or "choosing war."
"At such moments, leaders always have choices," she said. "Trump has stepped back from the brink of war with Iran before, and he has the ability to do so again." She added that if Trump decides to strike nuclear facilities, Iran will view this as an act of war.
"Once you open Pandora's box, we don't know where things will go," Geranmayeh believes that this conflict "will likely consume the remainder of Trump's presidency."
Regarding Iran's stance, she analyzed that "surrender is not an option," although Tehran also knows it cannot win militarily, its strategy is to ensure that all parties involved become losers.
What Prompted Trump to Change His Attitude?
As the U.S. military moves large numbers of tankers and aircraft to Europe and the Middle East, signs of U.S. military involvement in the Israeli-Iranian conflict become increasingly evident, with war seemingly imminent.
On June 17 local time, CNN cited sources saying that Trump's attitude toward using the U.S. military to strike Iran's nuclear facilities has become increasingly positive, and he has gradually cooled on the idea of resolving the Iran-Israel conflict through diplomatic means. Two officials familiar with internal discussions said that although Trump has not completely ruled out diplomatic channels, his hawkish stance has significantly shifted compared to before.
In light of the sudden escalation of regional tensions, Trump's departure from the G7 summit also sparked speculation. A White House official said on June 17 that Trump met with his national security team in the Situation Room that day. Analysts believe this is a signal that the U.S. is about to launch a military strike against Iran.
U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. Visual China
That day, Trump also posted on social media that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei is an easy target, but will not be targeted at least for now, and demanded unconditional surrender from Iran.
Why does Trump seem to have shed his earlier restraint on "foreign wars"? CNN believes that Trump's change in attitude is no coincidence with Israel's initial military success. On June 17 local time, he claimed "we have complete control over Iran's airspace," creating an almost risk-free combat environment for U.S. bombers, which is tempting enough for this president who admires General Patton.
Nevertheless, Trump has made no preparations to avoid another adventure in the Middle East, where the U.S. has bled and exhausted its treasury. Trump's "splitting strongman" governing style makes it likely that he will lose all cross-party public trust required for a "wartime president."
Suddenly, this U.S. president, who once prided himself on "not starting new wars," finds himself at a familiar crossroads - weighing whether to drag the U.S. into another Middle East war based on questionable intelligence about weapons of mass destruction.
This article is an exclusive contribution by Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517279854073528867/
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