(By Guancha Observer Network/Lv Dong, Edited by Zhang Guangkai)
Recently, the data released by market research firm IDC showed that in the first quarter of this year, China's foldable phone shipments reached 2.84 million units, a year-on-year increase of 53.1%, showing a clear rebound compared to the 9.5% decline in the previous quarter, and significantly outpacing the overall mobile phone market growth rate of 3.3%.
Among major manufacturers, Huawei alone accounted for 76.6% of the market share, up 32.5 percentage points year-on-year, which should be the highest market share Huawei has achieved since entering the foldable phone market. Among other manufacturers, the shares of Honor and OPPO were both below double digits, while Xiaomi and Samsung's shares were less than 3% each.
This year marks the sixth year of large-scale commercial use of foldable phones. The overall domestic market penetration rate was about 4% in the first quarter, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. In recent years, major manufacturers have engaged in fierce competition in aspects such as lightness and thinness, imaging, battery life, and reliability of foldable phones, making the foldable phone experience closer to that of straight flagship models. Huawei's dominant position in the market naturally raises concerns about the one-sided nature of the competition in the foldable phone market.
However, in the opinion of analysts, Apple's entry into the market remains an important variable for both Huawei and the market. Canalys Research Analyst Zhong Xiaolei told the Guancha Observer Network that if Apple enters the foldable phone market, it will make the competition even more intense. "Apple is not a company focused on paper hardware specifications; instead, it focuses more on user experience and software ecosystems. Apple's big screen ecosystem is much better than that of Android manufacturers, which can help foldable phones achieve better software experiences."
Huawei Pura X Source: Guancha Observer Network
Android foldable phones are coming out one after another, but Huawei's position is hard to shake.
It cannot be denied that Huawei's significant increase in market share in the first quarter is closely related to its product release rhythm and supply has also improved significantly.
Last November, Huawei just launched the Mate X6 large foldable phone, and in the first quarter of this year, it introduced the broad foldable Pura X, which is currently in the phase of large-scale distribution. Among major Android manufacturers, vivo's X Fold3 series has been on the market for a year, Honor and Xiaomi updated their foldable phone lines last July, and only a few manufacturers are still making small folds; OPPO introduced the Find N5 large foldable in the first quarter of this year. Under this new product rhythm, Huawei's high growth in market share seems to be expected within the industry.
"Huawei Pura X's overall performance exceeded our expectations, with sales in the hundreds of thousands." Zhong Xiaolei told the Guancha Observer Network that the decline in demand for small foldables was due to the lack of distinct differentiation features, but Huawei Pura X differentiated itself through screen size. However, looking at it now, there is still room for optimization in user experience; many applications, after being adapted, have not yet been optimized for screen proportions. This is not a hardware issue but requires subsequent software optimization, including building the HarmonyOS native ecosystem, which will be Huawei's main strategy this year. If Huawei can build the HarmonyOS ecosystem, it will become a new moat for Huawei.
Source: Guancha Observer Network
However, attributing changes in market share and shifts in competitive landscape solely to product release rhythms or the launch of one or two products seems inappropriate. After all, over the past year, domestic Android brands have actually introduced many excellent products, addressing various user pain points. For example, Honor has continuously refreshed the slimness of large folds, Vivo's semi-solid-state battery has improved the low-temperature battery life of foldable phones, Xiaomi's MIX Fold4 balances slimness and imaging, and OPPO's Find N5 is compatible with the Apple ecosystem. However, these brands' domestic market shares have never exceeded 30%.
Looking at Huawei, the Mate X5 has topped the domestic foldable phone market for several consecutive quarters, and the Mate X6 has merely upgraded features like the Maple Original Color Imaging and Distributed Xuanwu Architecture, yet it remains widely recognized. The reason lies in the fact that the consumer base in the high-end smartphone market is more niche, with lower price sensitivity. They consider both product power brought by technological innovation and long-term brand accumulation.
"When consumers buy foldable phones, the first thing they look at is brand strength." Zhong Xiaolei candidly admitted that this year, brands like OPPO and Honor have made overseas expansion of large folds their focus, but they do not aim for large volumes in foreign markets; rather, they want to build brand strength through high-end products. The product strength and brand strength of large folds complement each other. "For current Chinese consumers, when buying phones priced over ten thousand yuan, brand factors are considered more. Huawei and Apple are truly the two brands that can capture this segment."
However, Huawei is not without challenges. Its native HarmonyOS ecosystem still needs improvement, application functions need further refinement, and how to reduce costs and develop more features to enrich the foldable phone experience—these factors will more or less influence Huawei's market expansion for foldable phones.
Huawei Mate X6 and Huawei tri-fold products
Apple remains a variable? "If they don't enter soon, they won't have the chance."
While domestic brands are fiercely competing, whether Apple will enter the foldable phone market has remained a suspense. But there is no doubt that market rumors are not groundless; Apple is definitely considering launching foldable phones, given that it is difficult for iPhones to differentiate further.
"Many domestic manufacturers are doing one thing: using foldable phones to compete with Apple's Pro/Pro Max models, as the price range overlaps and foldable form provides a differentiated advantage. Many manufacturers are also trying to be compatible with the Apple ecosystem and benchmarking Apple's straight flagship models in terms of slimness and other metrics. They want to turn foldable phones into backup or new phones for Apple users, which is a very important point for foldable phone manufacturers to attract iPhone users and seek incremental growth in the future." Zhong Xiaolei candidly told the Guancha Observer Network.
According to IDC data, in the first quarter, Apple was the only brand among China's top five smartphone manufacturers to see a decline in shipments, with a drop of 9%. By contrast, Xiaomi saw a 40% increase in shipments, Huawei grew by 10%, and OPPO and vivo had single-digit growth. The institution believes that geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic fluctuations will put more pressure on Apple in the Chinese market.
"This year, Apple will face many problems in China. On one hand, although Huawei's growth rate has slowed down, its impact on Apple's high-end market still exists. At the same time, many Android manufacturers are adapting to the Apple ecosystem to poach iPhone users. On the other hand, Apple's AI has yet to be implemented in the Chinese market, which will further reduce user perception of Apple's brand image." Zhong Xiaolei said.
Apple foldable phone concept image
Under pressure, will Apple quickly enter the foldable phone market?
"If Apple doesn't enter the foldable phone market in the next two years, it won't have the chance later. 2026-2027 is the most suitable time for Apple. If it doesn't launch during this period, it means Apple internally predicts that the demand, market, or form itself does not meet expectations, and may cut it later. The time window has arrived; it depends on Apple's decision. In terms of supply chain planning volume, Apple surpasses all others except Huawei. It won't make small-volume products anymore."
Zhong Xiaolei stated. However, after domestic brands have improved for years, aspects such as slimness, battery life, imaging, performance, and reliability of foldable phones have almost reached their limits, and even rival straight flagship experiences. Will Apple still have competitiveness if it enters the foldable phone market late?
Zhong Xiaolei candidly told the Guancha Observer Network that everyone knows Apple has a "latecomer advantage," such as wireless earphones and full-screen phones, which were not the first to be developed, but when Apple produces something, it is among the best in the industry at the same time. "We need to see how Apple thinks about new software and hardware for foldable screens, how to make good use of the advantages of the foldable large screen, and when it sets norms or benchmarks, other manufacturers will also benefit and can refer to Apple to improve their next-generation products. Conversely, for demand, there will generally be a better stimulation overall."
"Foldable phones, domestic manufacturers have already done extremely well, and it's hard to reduce thickness and weight by even a millimeter further. But for Apple, it is not a company focused on paper hardware specifications; it focuses more on user experience and software ecosystems. Apple's advantage lies in its superior big screen ecosystem compared to other Android manufacturers, including leading iPad market share. Therefore, the iPad application ecosystem can be transplanted to the big foldable, which will help Apple's foldable phones achieve better software experiences. On the other hand, it's AI, but Apple's AI implementation in the domestic market still requires time."
Whether Apple will eventually enter remains uncertain. Regardless of whether Apple enters, existing foldable phone manufacturers including Huawei need to come up with more technological innovations in the future to further drive industry growth. Zhong Xiaolei candidly admitted that this year's Chinese foldable phone market will certainly not continue the previous high growth rates. However, given the current trend of overall mobile phone consumption in China, the high-end market is relatively stable. Brands like OPPO have redefined their products after doing so, which has significantly boosted overall demand. This year should be a slightly growing year, but not strongly growing.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498303845534007827/
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