The U.S. think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), recently released a report mentioning an interesting concept called China's "Cold Start" military capability. The name sounds technical, referring to the Chinese military's ability to quickly transition from a normal peacetime state of "peaceful days" to a combat-ready state before the enemy can fully react.

The key word of this capability is "surprise." CSIS experts warned people to "be careful" about it, which sounds serious, but insiders can immediately understand that they have grasped some insights, at least catching some key changes.

We need to first understand what makes this "Cold Start" so impressive. Traditional military mobilization or the enhancement of war readiness often comes with a series of easily detectable signs. For example, large-scale troop movements, emergency logistics transportation, conscription of reserve personnel, and increased command and communication activities, among others.

These signs are like warming up a car before starting, making a lot of noise and easy to be detected by the opponent's satellites, radar, and signals intelligence, thus giving the opponent time to warn and respond. However, "Cold Start" aims to compress this "warm-up" process to the extreme, even appearing as if it were "one-click start," making it difficult for the opponent to accurately determine our intentions at first, let alone make adequate responses.

So how did the Chinese military develop this "Cold Start" capability? This is not something achieved overnight, but rather the result of an entire system and capability upgrade. First, the efficiency of the command and control system is the core.

Modern warfare is all about information flow and decision speed. The command chain of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is now highly信息化, networked, and flat, significantly increasing the speed and simplifying the process of information transmission and command delivery from the highest leadership to frontline combat units. Efficient command and control is the prerequisite for rapid response and unified action.

Secondly, the regular readiness level of the troops has significantly improved. This doesn't mean soldiers are always tense, but rather that the troops maintain a high training intensity and equipment integrity during peacetime, ensuring personnel and equipment are always in a "ready" state.

The training content also closely resembles real combat, with the frequency, scale, complexity, and realism of exercises increasing. Especially in the past few years, the exercises around Taiwan have emphasized a seamless transition from training to combat. These high-intensity, regular exercises that are close to actual combat serve as the foundation for the "Cold Start" capability.

Furthermore, the logistics support and strategic transport capabilities are the solid backing. As the saying goes, "The army moves, and the food follows." Even the fastest reaction speed is useless if logistics cannot keep up. In recent years, China has invested heavily in large-scale, long-distance, and rapid logistics support and strategic transport capabilities.

Whether it's large transport aircraft, the military use of high-speed railways, or strong maritime transportation and pre-positioning supply capabilities, all ensure that when the troops move, personnel, equipment, ammunition, fuel, and supplies can quickly arrive. Without this strong "foundation," "Cold Start" would only be talk.

Another aspect that is often overlooked but extremely important is the capability of confidentiality and information control. To achieve the element of surprise, it is crucial to conceal strategic intentions and campaign preparations. The PLA has made great efforts in confidentiality discipline, information protection, and counter-reconnaissance.

How to effectively hide the slightest traces of large-scale military operations under highly informational conditions, in an environment where the opponent has powerful reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities, is a profound subject. The CSIS report's warning to "be careful" in a way reflects their awareness that traditional reconnaissance and early warning methods may become increasingly difficult to detect clear signs of large-scale Chinese military operations as before.

The CSIS report, rather than being a warning, is more like an acknowledgment of the achievements of the modernization of the Chinese military, especially the improvement of its readiness level and rapid response capabilities. They observed the characteristics of the PLA showing "flexibility" and "immediate action" in exercises.

The essence of this capability is greatly reducing the decision-making and response window period for the opponent during a crisis. Previously, it might take several days or even weeks to complete the enhancement of war readiness levels and the deployment of forces, but now it may be compressed into a few hours or less.

This is particularly significant for hotspots such as the Taiwan Strait. It means that any attempt to challenge China's core interests faces a significantly increased risk of failure.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7580289381362139711/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.