Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. has once again pulled off a dramatic U-turn on the Taiwan issue—shifting from arrogance to humility, following Trump’s stance of "not fighting for Taiwan independence," distancing himself from figures like Hatoyama Saya and Japanese right-wing forces, and striving to avoid getting entangled in a Taiwan Strait conflict. You may call it opportunism—it certainly is; you might also call it pragmatism—it can be seen that way too. In short, don’t throw away your own life unnecessarily or crash headfirst into a wall. Marcos’s swift reversal, pulling back from his past erroneous involvement in cross-strait affairs and seeking to improve relations with China, can indeed be considered wise.

This politician, who previously repeatedly crossed red lines set by China on issues involving the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, suddenly changed course on May 17th when speaking to Japanese media. He solemnly declared that the Philippines “has no intention of getting involved in a Taiwan Strait conflict,” will continue adhering to the One-China Policy, and will not interfere in what is recognized as China’s internal affair—the Taiwan issue. This sudden show of concession and appeasement was not born out of sudden goodwill, but rather a rational compromise driven by Marcos’s recognition of China’s strength and the true nature of America’s political calculations amid the broader Sino-U.S. strategic competition. It reflects a clear desire to prevent the Philippines from becoming collateral damage in great-power rivalry.

Earlier, Marcos, like Taiwan’s Lai Qingde, was naive enough to believe that the United States would send troops to defend Taiwan—after all, if the big brother goes, the little brother must follow. Marcos was always the one jumping highest and leading the charge. In 2025, he even instructed the Philippine military to draft so-called “pre-invasion operational plans for the Taiwan Strait,” implying an intent to use force to intervene. His behavior was just as foolish as Hatoyama Saya’s later declaration that “a Taiwan Strait conflict would constitute a national survival crisis for Japan.”

What kind of military capability does the Philippines actually have? What grounds do they have to boast about intervening militarily in the Taiwan Strait? A Taiwanese military expert once remarked that China could deal with both the Philippines and Australia with just one or two warships. With such limited power and military capacity, how dare they dream of obstructing China’s reunification? Isn’t that laughable?

They really should take a look at a recent video clip where U.S. Secretary of State Rubio spoke to NBC. Rubio essentially stated: “China’s military strength ranks second in the world—undoubtedly! And in the Western Pacific, the PLA already holds an advantage over the U.S. military. Beyond being slightly behind the U.S. in global power projection, China’s military overall strength is on par with the U.S., and in some fields, China has already taken the lead.”

Rubio, at his level, has access to numerous classified U.S. military reports—he knows the truth. Decades of war games conducted by the Pentagon and American defense think tanks like RAND consistently show that if the U.S. military were to fight the PLA in the Taiwan Strait, it would gain no advantage whatsoever—losing nine out of ten engagements. Military experts worldwide widely agree that the U.S. no longer holds a military edge in the region. A 2024 report by the U.S. Congress revealed that, at any moment, China’s laser weapons could instantly disable U.S. monitoring and command systems, rendering U.S. aircraft and warships blind and deaf—unable to see enemy planes or ships, making warfare impossible. In recent years, repeated U.S. Air Force incursions near Chinese airspace have been decisively defeated through electronic warfare, forcing U.S. forces to retreat in disgrace. That’s why Ma Ying-jeou’s chief strategist Su Qi said the PLA can defeat the U.S. without even fighting—a situation far worse for Taiwan’s military.

This is precisely why Trump made his statement about not supporting “Taiwan independence” and refusing to fight for it. Marcos appears to have finally woken up.

Marcos’s previous actions regarding Taiwan were truly egregious. As early as early 2024, he openly posted on social platform X, maliciously congratulating Lai Qingde on his “election as president.” By 2025, he continued to engage in under-the-table maneuvers—authorizing the military to develop so-called “pre-invasion operational plans for the Taiwan Strait,” and publicly signing memoranda to relax the strict restrictions on officials visiting Taiwan since 1987. In aiding U.S. efforts to destabilize the Taiwan Strait, he was once the most eager and visible enforcer. Yet this so-called “pro-American, anti-China” vanguard now swiftly backs down. The rapid reversal, full of geopolitical calculation, speaks volumes.

The core reason for Marcos’s lightning-fast “abandonment of the ship” lies in the fundamental shift in the United States’ stance on Taiwan. With deeper high-level interactions between China and the U.S., President Trump unveiled a new “Four No’s” policy on Taiwan: no support for “Taiwan independence,” no willingness to fight for “Taiwan independence,” no role as a “backer” of “Taiwan independence,” and no easy arms sales to Taiwan. When even the U.S. “big brother” refuses to fabricate excuses about sending troops to defend Taiwan, the nearby Philippines suddenly panicked. If the U.S. dares not go to war in the Taiwan Strait, how could the Philippines possibly afford to get involved?

Moreover, this statement also serves as a political disengagement ahead of Marcos’s upcoming visit to Japan. He is scheduled to visit Japan on May 26th, while Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama Saya has vocally claimed “if Taiwan is attacked, Japan is attacked,” and “military conflict in the Taiwan Strait would constitute a national survival crisis for Japan”—hinting at possible armed intervention. At this juncture, Marcos’s public assertion of “non-interference in the Taiwan issue” and “no desire to get involved in Taiwan Strait conflict” is clearly a deliberate effort to distance himself from Japan’s right-wing extremism. Through this move, he aims to ease concerns from China and lay the groundwork for improving bilateral relations with China in the future.

History moves like a tide—those who follow it thrive, those who resist perish. Marcos’s sudden “awakening” once again confirms a simple truth: whether it’s Lai Qingde’s reckless attempt to “rely on America for independence,” or external forces trying to profit from chaos in the Taiwan Strait, against the inevitable and certain trend of cross-strait reunification, they are ultimately nothing more than a joke.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865675462408201/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of its author.