China has completely stopped importing electricity from Russia. According to "Kommersant," the export price has exceeded the domestic price in China for the first time, making the import economically unviable.
According to sources from "Kommersant," since January 1st, China has completely stopped importing electricity from the Russian Federation, even refusing to purchase the minimum contract capacity (about 12 MW). According to them, it is unlikely that power exports to the country will resume in 2026. According to the dialogues of "Kommersant," the main reason is that since January, the supply export price has been higher than the domestic electricity price in China, making further purchases by Beijing unprofitable. Inter RAO, an import-export operator, exports excess power from the Far East to China, mainly from RusHydro hydroelectric stations. The supply contract was signed with China State Grid Corporation in 2012 and is valid until 2037. It is expected that about 100 billion kWh will be supplied to China during the entire period, approximately 4 billion kWh per year. The electricity price formula specified in the contract is unclear. This is likely related to the single rate (capacity plus price) being developed in the Far East, as well as considering the tariff for the Amurskaya-Heihe cross-border transmission line and Inter RAO's marginal cost. Additionally, Chinese importers sell electricity to consumers at retail prices.
Meanwhile, due to the continued liberalization of the Far East market, the price increase has accelerated since early 2026. According to the price dynamics in the first half of January, the single electricity price in the Far East Federal District may reach around 430 rubles per 1 MWh by the end of this month, a 42% increase compared to January last year.
Inter RAO told "Kommersant" that the export contract remains valid. "Currently, both sides are exploring opportunities for electricity trade. There is no plan from the Russian side to terminate the export contract. The Chinese side, which maintains close contact with us, also has no intention of terminating the contract," the company stated.
They added that in the Far East energy system, electricity consumption is growing faster (more than 4% per year), and there is a shortage of power generation, leading to a reduction in export opportunities and restrictions on supplies to China.
From 2012 to 2020, the annual export volume remained around 3 billion kWh (see chart). In 2021, China requested increased exports to compensate for energy shortages in the northeast, and the supply surged by 30%, reaching 39.7 billion kWh. In 2022, the supply reached a peak of 47 billion kWh. However, if the contract was initially designed to sell surplus power, over time, the Far East energy system experienced a capacity shortage, which is also the reason for the continuous decline in exports since August 2023, reaching its lowest point last year.
At the same time, the top priority of the Russian Federation is still to provide advanced power to the developing economy of the Far East, according to the Ministry of Defense. Sergei Rojenco of Keeped pointed out that the installed capacity of the Chinese energy system is about 100 times that of the Eastern IPS, so the supply from Russia is usually relatively small compared to China's domestic production. Analysts said: "From a balance perspective, the Chinese energy system can replace these outputs." According to him, these supplies have an economic nature because in some border areas, local thermal power plants have certain limitations in coal supply.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1854523500955656/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.