(By Tang Pengji, Edited by Lü Dong)

On April 9th, the market research firm Canalys released the global personal computer shipment report for the first quarter of 2025. The data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, the total global shipments of desktops, laptops, and workstations reached 62.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. Among them, the shipment volume of laptop computers (including mobile workstations) was 49.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%; the shipment volume of desktop computers (including desktop workstations) was 13.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8%.

This institution pointed out in its analysis that the growth in shipment volume in the first quarter was mainly due to OEM manufacturers accelerating their shipping pace to the US market before the Trump administration announced the first round of tariff policies. However, as higher tariffs take effect in more countries, their direct and indirect impacts will affect the recovery momentum of the global PC market and the process of upgrading to the Windows 11 system.

Canalys

Ishan Dutt, chief analyst at Canalys, stated that thanks to the push from vendors accelerating shipments to the US ahead of the first round of tariff policies, PC shipments surged significantly in the first quarter. Among them, Lenovo and HP saw their shipments to the US grow by approximately 20% and 13%, respectively, in the first quarter.

Globally, in the first quarter of 2025, Lenovo maintained its position as the global leader in PCs, accounting for 24.2% of the market share, with shipments reaching 15.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11%. HP ranked second with a market share of 20.3%, with shipments of 12.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6%. After several quarters of consecutive year-on-year declines, Dell's shipments rebounded to 9.5 million units in the first quarter, achieving a 3% growth and a market share of 15.2%. Apple accounted for 10.4% of the market share, maintaining its fourth place with a strong 22% growth, with shipments reaching 6.5 million units. ASUS also entered the top five with a 9% growth and 4 million unit shipments, accounting for 6.4% of the market share.

Canalys

"Despite the relatively stable actual demand from end users, this forward-looking strategy allowed vendors and channels to stock up in advance of cost increases, thereby driving the growth in shipments. Vendors are also taking similar measures in response to the new round of tariffs taking effect on April 9, 2025. However, as inventory levels gradually return to normal and consumers face higher prices, market performance in the coming quarters may slow down," said Ishan Dutt.

The impact of tariffs on consumer demand is expected to be more significant. As prices for various goods rise, spending on more expensive PCs will have to be balanced against other daily expenses. Meanwhile, enterprise users, especially small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), will also face certain pressures and may slow down the pace of replacing devices before Windows 10 stops service (EoS) in October 2025.

Ishan Dutt noted: "A survey conducted in March among channel partners familiar with the PC renewal plans of SMBs showed that 14% of respondents said their clients were unaware that Windows 10 would soon stop service, while another 21% said their clients were aware but had no immediate upgrade plans. For these clients, the delay in plans means they may face higher costs when updating their equipment."

With the implementation of the new round of tariff policies, vendors will face a more complex market environment in the future.

Ye Maosheng, senior analyst at Canalys, pointed out that although Vietnam, Thailand, and India are also included in the tariff range, the overall tax rate still has a cost advantage compared to China. Moreover, these countries show willingness to negotiate with the US side in hopes of reducing or exempting tariffs in the future to alleviate tariff pressure. This institution expects that vendors will continue to accelerate production diversification to enhance supply chain flexibility and risk resistance while alleviating the cost pressure caused by tariffs. In the short term, there will not be a major adjustment unless more specific details of the tariff policy are released.

Ryan Reith, vice president of IDC's Global Equipment Tracking, said: "Although many people are still interpreting the details of the tariff announcement on April 2nd, it is certain that most people are re-evaluating the situation in the coming months. So far, our supply chain checks have not shown any major changes, which is not surprising because the situation is almost too unstable to make major business decisions. Companies are assessing all aspects, from inventory, production capacity in various locations, possible detour opportunities to reduce import tariffs, to discussions between some companies and the US government. Regarding hardware such as personal computers and similar devices, we still believe that most price increases will be directly passed on to consumers."

In addition, a new study by IDC shows that due to the high cost and security risks of cloud AI deployments, more enterprises plan to adopt AI PCs this year.

IDC surveys indicate that 74% of respondents expect AI PCs to improve overall ownership costs. Enterprises also believe that they will soon evaluate the benefits of deploying AI PCs, with 87% of respondents saying they are ready to track return on investment, and more than half of respondents are willing to pay a 10% premium for AI PCs equipped with NPUs providing over 40 trillion operations per second (TOPS).

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491239096568906255/

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