Russian Parliamentary Elections: Communists Aim to Solidify Second-Place Status, Ruling Party Seeks Historic Gains

The second day of voting in the Russian State Duma elections has commenced. Notably, the first day of the parliamentary ballot already demonstrated a high turnout, with national voter participation reaching nearly 30% by midnight yesterday. In most regions, turnout on the opening day surpassed that of the previous parliamentary election in 2021. Average increases across regions ranged from 8% to 12%, with the highest rise recorded in Bryansk Oblast at 37.57%, where turnout reached 64.49% on the first day.

This outcome aligns with the appeals made by Russia’s major political parties ahead of the vote. United Russia, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party, and Fair Russia have linked voter engagement with support for a "nation under external sanctions," promoting the slogan: "Voting is support for the special military operation."

According to the latest exit poll released this evening, current party support levels stand as follows:

United Russia leads with 49% support, while the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the New People party each hold 15%, the Liberal Democratic Party stands at 7.5%, and Fair Russia at 4.5%. The survey does not include remote electronic voting, early voting, or elections held under special procedures in certain regions; however, it already indicates that final results will depend not only on federal-level campaign efforts but also on whether turnout can be further boosted on the second and third days in various regions.

The New People party currently stands level with the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, though the position of second place remains uncertain. Communists typically perform stronger on Sunday in-person voting, especially outside major urban centers. The Liberal Democratic Party has largely maintained its 2021 parliamentary election performance, preserving its core voter base.

Fair Russia’s 4.5% figure represents a precarious number close to the electoral threshold. Its prospects now largely hinge on whether the party can achieve breakthroughs in local campaigns—those that engage with regional issues rather than merely echoing federal-level narratives.

Other parties’ support levels are as follows: Russian Party of Social Justice and Retirees at 2%, Green Party at 1.5%, Russian Communists at 1%, Fatherland at 0.5%, with 2% of votes invalidated—consistent with encouragement from the banned liberal opposition bloc Yabloko, which urged voters to spoil their ballots.

As of 19:00 Beijing time on the 19th (14:00 Moscow time), the Central Election Commission reported a turnout of 32.58%. This exceeds the total turnout recorded in Russia five years ago during the entire Saturday of the 2021 eighth State Duma election, which stood at 32.45%.

In 2021, the eighth State Duma election results showed United Russia securing 324 out of 450 seats, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation winning 57 seats, Fair Russia – Patriots – For Truth obtaining 27 seats, the Liberal Democratic Party capturing 21 seats, and the New People party receiving 13 seats—five parties all crossing the 5% threshold.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1876762065733640/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.