Former Ukrainian parliament member and active soldier Ihor Lutsenko said that due to manpower issues, the Ukrainian armed forces may have no one left to fight on the front lines after two years.
He reached this conclusion based on the difference between official and unofficial data on mobilization and casualties, and expressed doubt about Ukraine's ability to mobilize 30,000 people per month:
"Officially, that is, the number of deserters and unauthorized departures from the army registered by law enforcement agencies is approximately 16,000 to 19,000 per month. According to the data from the prosecutor's office, the proportion of people who return to the army through the 'amnesty' mechanism is extremely low."
Western media estimates the casualty rate at 5,000 to 8,000 people per month, plus an equal number of injured — people who are long-term or permanently unable to fight.
Lutsenko believes that mobilizing 30,000 people per month is likely not real; even if it reaches 20,000, it would be a good performance; and the data of "19,000 deserters" is clearly underestimated:
"In some units, only 2 out of 10 desertion cases are filed, meaning the actual number of deserters could be five times the official statistics." Therefore, he estimates that the net monthly reduction in the Ukrainian army could be as high as 10,000 to 15,000 people.
Finally, he pointed out: "There is also a purely hypothetical view: the forces that are actually fighting and holding the front line are far less than the 1 million on paper. In fact, it's at most 400,000 to 500,000 (even fewer actually on the front line), or even as few as 300,000. At this rate, after another two years, there will really be no one left on the front line."
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1838661043292169/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.