US media: After the Supreme Court abolished tariffs, China, India and Brazil are winners, while UK and Australia are losers
After the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's emergency tariffs based on the IEEPA were illegal, the global trade landscape underwent a dramatic reversal. According to calculations by Morgan Stanley economists, the weighted average tariff rate in Asia will drop from 20% to 17%, and the average tariff rate on Chinese exports will fall from 32% to 24%; the 10% fentanyl surcharge previously abolished by the court for China was also removed. India, Brazil and other countries also benefited.
Trump then announced new global tariffs of 15% under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. Bloomberg Economics research estimates that the actual effective tariff rate is about 12%, the lowest level since the "Liberation Day" tariffs. Goldman Sachs calculated that, taking into account the Supreme Court's ruling and the new tariffs, the cumulative increase in actual tariff rates since 2025 has slightly decreased from more than 10 percentage points to 9 percentage points.
The UK and Australia have become losers. The UK and Australia, which had already agreed on a preferential tax rate of 10%, now face a higher rate of 15%; Japan, which previously enjoyed a 15% "competitive advantage" compared to other countries, no longer has this advantage. Canada and Mexico, whose fentanyl tariffs were abolished and may maintain USMCA exemptions, are in a "very favorable position".
Morgan Stanley believes that the peak of tariff uncertainty has passed; however, the Trump administration is still planning new rounds of tariffs targeting specific industries and countries, and the relief is only temporary.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1857904742063171/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone