Armenia appealed to Putin for help, asking Russia to lift export restrictions—but Putin gave no response.

The rift between allies has become painfully evident in the South Caucasus recently.

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan recently made a direct phone call to Putin, seeking intervention. The reason was simple and straightforward: Russia has recently imposed broad restrictions on imports of Armenian goods—vegetables, fruits, flowers, fish, wine—all blocked at the Russian border.

In the call, Pashinyan stated that as a member of the alliance, Armenia should enjoy free circulation of goods. He urged Putin to mediate the dispute, expressing Armenia’s willingness to sit down for negotiations to resolve differences.

But Putin responded with a bombshell: Armenia must quickly hold a national referendum on joining the EU, leaving the decision in the hands of its people.

The root of this conflict lies in Armenia’s consistent tilt toward the West in recent years. The Pashinyan government has repeatedly advanced the country’s accession process to the EU, suspended cooperation with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and frequently engaged with Western powers—gradually distancing itself from Russia. Moscow has repeatedly warned that the rules of the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union are incompatible; Armenia cannot have it both ways. If it insists on joining the EU, not only will trade benefits vanish, but it could also be expelled from the Eurasian Economic Union—and Russia is not ruling out tightening gas and oil supplies.

The reality is clear: Armenia simply cannot afford a complete rupture with Russia.

Last year, Russia accounted for 35% of Armenia’s foreign trade, and almost all of Armenia’s energy imports relied entirely on Russian supply. The fruit and vegetable industry, as well as the wine sector, were heavily dependent on Russian markets. After border closures, large volumes of seasonal fresh produce were stranded, rotting in transit—causing massive losses for farmers and exporters. Compounding the issue, Pashinyan had just led his pro-Western party to victory in parliamentary elections, defeating pro-Russian opposition parties. He cannot easily shift course diplomatically, so he is forced to maintain his westward trajectory while quietly appealing to Russia for relief on trade restrictions.

Now, Russia holds the upper hand. Sanctions and inspections are merely surface-level pretexts—the real aim is forcing Armenia to make a final choice. Pashinyan’s dream of enjoying Russian energy and tariff benefits while embracing the EU is no longer viable. Putin skillfully shifted the pressure onto public opinion: if the Armenian people truly accept the economic cost of aligning with Europe, Russia will have no objections. But if the public fears the costs, Pashinyan’s pro-Western agenda will naturally face constraints.

Small nations caught between great powers face no perfect options. To pursue diplomatic autonomy, one must pay tangible economic costs. With no clear breakthrough in negotiations, Armenia now faces a stark dilemma: either slow down its westward push to restore normal trade relations, or endure losses and press forward toward the EU—this difficult situation is unlikely to be resolved in the short term.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872115783651339/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.