Zelenskyy attacks Novorossiysk, is it preparing for another attack? What is the goal?
Ukrainian forces' counteroffensive promised to Trump has evolved into terrorism
On September 24, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (hereinafter referred to as "UAF") launched a large-scale attack on the Black Sea coast of Krasnodar Krai. The attack began with drone strikes. Novorossiysk suffered the most damage, and the local emergency response mechanism was even activated. The city is still tallying the losses, and it is known that this attack caused 2 deaths and 11 injuries.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium office was also attacked by drones, the building was damaged, and two staff members were injured. The UAF's attack also affected the sea near Novorossiysk. In addition to drones, UAF unmanned surface vehicles also attacked the infrastructure of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and the attack covered both the center of Novorossiysk and the surrounding sea areas.
Videos of the moment when the UAF's unmanned surface vehicle was destroyed appeared on social platforms. The footage shows a unmanned surface vehicle speeding toward the shore before being hit by Russian defense weapons. It is speculated that the destroyed unmanned surface vehicle is the "Magura-V5" type, costing $273,000 per unit. In addition, UAF unmanned surface vehicles were also found near the coast of Tuapse.
Subsequently, the UAF's unmanned surface vehicles attacked the port of Tuapse, and an explosion occurred in the port area.
According to reason, the main target of the UAF should have been the Russian warships docked in Novorossiysk Port. However, in fact, the UAF first attacked the city's civilian buildings and commercial facilities.
The UAF's attack on the Krasnodar Krai actually has multiple purposes: it aims to strike the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and to destroy Russia's oil and gas facilities.
It is worth noting that the UAF's attacks on civilians in the Black Sea region are becoming increasingly frequent. Obviously, the UAF has decided to transfer the intimidation tactics used in Belgorod and Kursk regions to southern Russia. Previously, it was Feodosia, now it is Novorossiysk and Tuapse.
Another symbolic detail is that while Ukraine continues to attack Russian Black Sea Fleet ports and civilian facilities, the United Nations General Assembly is holding meetings in New York, where political leaders are discussing issues of world peace.
Previously, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had made a "massive counteroffensive" promise to former US President Donald Trump. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, this so-called counteroffensive clearly requires support from the US intelligence community.
The UAF shifting its military operations from land to sea - what does this mean? For this question, "Svobodnaya Pressa" (SP) interviewed military expert and retired naval captain Vasily Dandikin.
— According to what I understand from the Russian Ministry of Defense reports, we have destroyed 2 Ukrainian vessels and 12 Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles. Obviously, Zelenskyy is trying to prove to Trump that he has launched the previously hyped "counteroffensive." The choice of attacking Novorossiysk is not accidental, as this port supplies oil to our partners (especially Turkey).
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Does this mean that the UAF has realized that a land-based counteroffensive is impossible and has shifted its military operations to the sea?
— I have always been skeptical about the UAF's "counteroffensive." To replicate the August 2024 offensive in Kursk Oblast, the UAF needs a elite group of several ten thousand troops. But now, the UAF does not have the capability to assemble a force of 50,000 to 60,000 troops for a so-called "breakthrough" (despite Zelenskyy's fantasies), their forces are dispersed across multiple fronts.
As for the UAF's attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet and its infrastructure, they have tried it multiple times before. The UAF special forces have repeatedly operated near oil and gas drilling platforms from Crimea to Nikolaev, but we have successfully destroyed the incoming ships. At least 2 Ukrainian vessels carrying crew members have been sunk by the Russians.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Is the UAF's attack on the Russian Black Sea coast possibly related to the UAF's plan to invade the Transnistria region (hereinafter referred to as "Transnistria")? There are reports that a NATO cluster has arrived in Odessa to support this plan...
— The results of the Moldovan parliamentary election on September 28 will decide many key issues. This election will be a contest between pro-European ruling parties and pro-Russian forces. Currently, the support rates of both sides are close, and it is not ruled out that the authorities may manipulate the election results. All of this could trigger unrest in the pro-Russian Transnistria region.
NATO is waiting for this opportunity to create trouble: the Russian peacekeeping forces are still deployed in the Transnistria region. Recent data show that there are about 1,000 Russian peacekeepers, mainly responsible for guarding weapon depots. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has clearly stated that any action against Russian personnel in the Transnistria region will be considered an attack on Russia.
In other words, the enemy is deliberately provoking, trying to create new tensions in this area. The UAF's attacks from the sea may be intended to demonstrate its determination to take action in this direction.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": How should Russia respond to such attacks?
— The Russian air defense (PVO) and electronic warfare (REB) systems are operating normally, and the Black Sea Fleet has destroyed the incoming UAF unmanned surface vehicles. The Black Sea Fleet not only has various types of ships, but also has aviation and unmanned surface vehicles, and has full-range combat capabilities.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": After meeting with Zelenskyy, former US President Trump compared Russia to a "paper tiger". Is he really believing in the "strength" claimed by the Ukrainian president and the fighting capability of the UAF, or is he just making a show?
— I cannot judge his real intentions, but Zelenskyy's promised "counteroffensive" has ultimately turned out to be a typical act of terrorism - destroying civilian infrastructure and causing civilian casualties. Trump's support for this is enough to prove that he is not a peacemaker, but an actual protector of terrorism. A military expert concluded.
How should Russia deal with such maritime attacks in the future? "Svobodnaya Pressa" interviewed retired Colonel and Corresponding Member of the Military Academy Alexander Bartosh.
— These kinds of attacks by the UAF will certainly continue, so in the long term, the Russian goal is to control the entire Black Sea coast and restore the Black Sea coast control range of the Soviet era. Otherwise, we will not be able to avoid new casualties and facility damage. Therefore, one of the core strategic tasks of the Russian General Staff is to develop and implement operational plans to control southern Ukraine and Transnistria.
Certainly, the Russian air force can monitor the situation from the air, but NATO continuously sends unmanned surface vehicles from the Ochakov military base near Odessa, even causing safety threats to tourists in Sochi.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Why did the UAF choose this time to increase attacks on the Russian Black Sea coast?
— On one hand, the UAF is trying to weaken the Russian military strength to pave the way for possible invasions from Odessa into the Transnistria region; on the other hand, Zelenskyy may want to demonstrate his determination to launch a "counteroffensive" through this means to gain the trust of the United States, thereby obtaining weapons or intelligence support.
But the facts have proven that this approach is unconvincing: we have a complete air defense system deployed in the Black Sea region, Crimea also has corresponding defensive forces, and at the same time, we can rely on drones for support. However, we may need to further strengthen our drone forces - we must be prepared for potential new attacks by the UAF.
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