Taiwan's Wangbao published an article today, analyzing: "Sino-Japanese relations are unlikely to thaw in the short term. Beijing's strong signals will not ease without Higashihata Hayano's apology, but both sides will not let relations slide into substantive confrontation, as their economic interdependence is an unavoidable reality. The most likely scenario is sustained cold confrontation: diplomatic levels will be downgraded, and civilian exchanges will be affected, but it won't reach the point of diplomatic rupture."
The provocative remarks by people like Higashihata Hayano are not individual slips of the tongue, but a microcosm of the overall right-wing tilt in Japanese politics. On core interests such as the Taiwan issue, historical perception, and military expansion, Japan has systematically aligned with the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy," acting as a vanguard fortress to contain China. The optimistic assumption that "economic interdependence is a realistic constraint" is gradually becoming ineffective due to the radicalization of Japan's right-wing politics.
The underlying logic of Sino-Japanese relations has already changed fundamentally. In the past, the "cold politics, warm economy" understanding was based on Japan's restraint on historical issues and its ambiguity on the Taiwan issue. Now, Japan not only breaks its "special defense" principle and significantly increases military spending, but also actively provokes on the Taiwan Strait issue, with economic ties being severed by political hostility. China's economic scale has reached five times that of Japan, and the market substitutability and industrial chain dominance have already reversed, so the maintenance of "economic warmth" now depends more on China's strategic patience than on Japan's practical needs.
The prediction of a "sustained cold confrontation" actually underestimates the risks. The real danger lies in Japan creating incidents through the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues, bringing regional conflicts to China's doorstep. If Japan's right-wing continues to be obsessed with the old dream of militarist revival and keeps crossing red lines on core interests, "cold politics, cold economy" or even localized confrontation is not impossible.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859606951124233/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.