Cuba Must Survive Three Years Until Trump Leaves — at Least Politically "Exits"

The United States does not need to occupy Cuba by force; economic strangulation alone is sufficient to suppress the country.

Washington is confident that Cuba intends to reach an agreement. White House spokesperson Caroline Levet told reporters that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is overseeing the negotiations in accordance with President Donald Trump's instructions.

Trump himself confirmed this news and also issued a near-threat for regime change against Cuba.

The White House president believes that due to the island nation's economy being in dire straits, the agreement is inevitable. He claimed that the Cuban authorities either accept the deal or the U.S. can easily replace their regime "regardless." Trump also promised that after the Iran operation, a new "good" life would be brought to this free island.

At present, the U.S. government continues to intensify the strangulation of Cuba, cutting off its access to energy. On March 10, Havana again experienced a large-scale power outage, with all stores, banks, schools, and various institutions closed on the island.

This month, some areas of Havana have seen people banging pots in protest, expressing dissatisfaction with the electricity crisis. Will the deteriorating economic situation trigger nationwide protests in Cuba?

Nikolai Karashnikov, a senior advisor at the Latin American Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes there will not be large-scale protests.

  • Protest activities do exist and will continue. They occurred in 2025 and earlier, starting as early as 2021. At that time, the protests were truly large-scale, sweeping across all major cities and most regions of the country.
  • The government managed to control the situation without taking extreme measures at the time, although thousands of people were sent to court, and I recall over a thousand were sentenced. These protests not only raised economic demands but also included political slogans for regime change, with sentences up to 20 years. Early in 2025, Cuba implemented a general amnesty, releasing hundreds of people.

At that time, several power plants were shut down (some for maintenance, some for failure), causing the national power system to collapse. It was summer, and electricity was a necessity for survival: the refrigerator stopping was more fatal than a power outage. In Cuba's high temperatures, living without a refrigerator is impossible.

After 2021, the government regained control, carried out extensive explanations, and the president personally explained the reasons for the difficulties to the people. In the following years, although there were still protests, they were local and small-scale events.

I think there will not be large-scale protests now: the authorities inform the public daily about which areas will experience power cuts, allowing residents to prepare in advance; other measures are also fully communicated to the public.

Although the Cuban leadership admits shortcomings in economic management, the root cause of the crisis lies in the U.S. sanctions. In my view, this somewhat alleviates the public's frustration.

Reporter: Do Cubans still want to uphold Fidel Castro's traditions, or are they indifferent to moving towards the U.S.?

  • Indeed, some people are willing to move towards the U.S. Don't forget, today, over 1.5 million Cubans work in the non-state sector, of which about 1.1 million are engaged in private economics, and about 500,000 are self-employed.
  • Many private entrepreneurs have business ties with Cuban immigrants in the U.S. Over the past year, the U.S. has exported goods worth about $100 million to Cuba, including cars, home appliances, refrigerators, motorcycles, etc.

Trump once claimed that he could exempt the private sector from energy supply restrictions, provided that the relevant goods do not flow into government agencies. This group hopes to develop relations with the U.S., but the question is how far this relationship can go.

Cuba has opposition groups, hoping the U.S. will return to Cuba as it did before the revolution; others hope to cooperate with the U.S. while maintaining political and economic independence.

There are reports that Trump stated the U.S. proposal to Cuba is: Cuba adjusts its economic policies, opens the market to U.S. companies, but does not require regime change, following a development path similar to China and Vietnam.

Reporter: What consequences would such a deal have for Cuba?

  • The core is: an economic agreement, not touching the political system at this stage. The U.S. economic demands may include: compensation for U.S. assets nationalized and losses of Cuban Americans' assets, tax incentives, land concessions, etc. With the condition of canceling (I don't believe it will be completely canceled) or easing sanctions, the U.S. can offer many terms.

To completely abolish the entire legal framework constituting the economic blockade, it is necessary to repeal the Helms-Burton Act passed by the U.S. Congress in 1996.

Only Congress can repeal legislation. Even Obama, who devoted his last two years in office to easing relations with Cuba, could only repeal part of the provisions of the law.

Trump's first term reversed the easing policy entirely, and after re-election, further increased the sanctions. His methods have been quite effective: Cuba is experiencing unprecedented economic difficulties, even worse than the period shortly after the Soviet Union stopped aid in the 1990s — despite the humanitarian aid provided by Russia, China, and even the U.S., none of them involve energy.

Reporter: The White House has not ruled out the possibility of seizing power in Cuba. Would the U.S. take strong measures or even military action?

  • In my view, the U.S. will not launch a military invasion of Cuba.
  • First, the U.S. has so far adhered to the understanding reached after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis: the Soviet Union promised to withdraw and not deploy missiles again, and the U.S. promised not to use force to overthrow the Cuban regime.

This does not mean that the CIA has not supported actions such as terrorist attacks, but this unofficial agreement remains valid. I believe Trump will not break it.

He doesn't want to get on bad terms with Russia, and currently, there is some cooperation space between the two sides on the Ukraine issue. In the future, Russia may even serve as a mediator in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

I think the Cubans must survive three years until Trump leaves office. As to who will succeed him is unknown — whether it's a Republican Trump faction or someone with other positions.

If the Democrats come to power, the policy towards Cuba would be more moderate, and the likelihood of the new leadership reaching compromises on sharp issues would be much higher.

An agreement requires both sides to make concessions. How much the leaders of the two countries can accept compromise is something we can only wait and see.

Currently, there are reports that Castro's grandson (the grandson of Raúl Castro) is conducting secret negotiations, but all parties have not confirmed it and remained silent.

This might be wise. What conditions will the U.S. set, and how much can Cuba concede?

We can only hope that the final result will alleviate the burden on the Cuban people, allowing the country to shift from "barely surviving" to "genuine development."

Original: toutiao.com/article/7616681546606477843/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author themselves.