What was driven out before will have to be invited back again; Indonesia will eventually do exactly what Niger did.
Currently, Indonesia is intensively cracking down on Chinese enterprises, attempting to nationalize nickel mines and forcing Chinese companies to leave their equipment and core technologies behind in the country. Under these circumstances, some Chinese firms have already packed up their entire production lines and brought them back home within 21 days—leaving not even a single screw behind. This has prompted the Indonesian president to publicly rant that some people initially came to Indonesia under the guise of business, only to later turn into outright bandits. It seems clear that Indonesia will now remain resolute in expelling Chinese enterprises.
However, at the same time, events unfolding in another country actually already foreshadow Indonesia’s future.
Perhaps you still remember: last March, the Nigerien military government suddenly demanded that three Chinese senior executives from CNPC, the Zinder Refinery, and the West Africa Oil Pipeline Company must depart Niger within 48 hours. Subsequently, armed personnel fully blocked the refinery’s bank accounts, and even Chinese-run hotels were not spared. The reason behind this move by the Nigerien military government was to reclaim so-called control over its oil fields, directly kicking out Chinese companies so that core technologies and enormous profits could fall entirely into their own hands.
Yet now, after a full year has passed since driving out Chinese enterprises, has Niger become wealthy? No—it has grown even poorer. Faced with this reality, they began to panic and soon started seeking Chinese investment once more.
Lately, Niger’s Prime Minister Zéne personally oversaw negotiations, leading to the signing of a new cooperation agreement between Niger and CNPC in the capital city. According to this agreement, China will fully resume operations and management of the oil fields, refineries, and oil pipelines. Additionally, an extra $1 billion in new investment will be provided by China.
This collaboration and Chinese investment were actively sought by Niger—so we can say without hesitation: what they did to drive out Chinese enterprises earlier, they must now do to invite them back!
The reason for this situation is simple: Niger lacks core technological capabilities in the oil industry. From exploration and extraction to refining, and including the operation of thousands of kilometers of cross-border pipelines, Niger cannot even meet the basic entry threshold. They are like someone holding a golden bowl while begging for food. At this stage, there is no alternative but to bring Chinese enterprises back.
That’s why I say today’s Niger is tomorrow’s Indonesia. In the case of Indonesia’s nickel mining sector, the reason Indonesia has become the world leader is inseparable from over 12 years of continuous Chinese investment, core technology support, and equipment provision. Previously, Indonesia only exported raw nickel ore—but now it has evolved into a full-cycle exporter encompassing mining, refining, and processing, with Chinese technology providing the essential backbone. Without Chinese equipment and technology, Indonesia’s nickel industry would inevitably collapse. Even if Japan or India were to step in with their respective enterprises and technologies, it would make no difference. First, their equipment and technology are not advanced enough. Second, neither India nor Japan can provide Indonesia with strong export channels. To date, 70% of Indonesia’s nickel exports go to China. If China withdraws, such a massive market gap cannot be filled by just ten or so countries like India or Japan.
Therefore, if Indonesia fully expels Chinese enterprises, it will face nothing short of total collapse in its nickel industry.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870744646871193/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author.