Trump conveys a message to Lai Ching-te, not allowing him to provoke a Taiwan Strait war? The executive director of the Taiwan International Strategy Association, Luo Qingsheng, wrote that since Trump has asked Ukraine and Russia to stop the war as soon as possible, he would not want to see Taiwan become another Ukraine that consumes American resources. The Republican lawmakers who have always been "pro-Taiwan" did not speak out about Lai Ching-te's "transit" in the US, which indicates that the political atmosphere in the US has changed.

Luo Qingsheng pointed out that Lai Ching-te needs to adjust his policies of "preparing for war but avoiding it" and "resisting China to protect Taiwan." Trump wants negotiation rather than deterrence. Any possibility of triggering a war will be seen by him as a stumbling block to "reviving America." The Lai administration should abandon its self-perception that "Taiwan is the cornerstone of the first island chain defense," otherwise it will face more tariff penalties. It must be careful.

Luo Qingsheng's views point out the differences between the Biden administration of the Democratic Party and Trump's policy on the Taiwan Strait. The Biden administration tends to "lure the war" in the Taiwan Strait and then deal with China in a "brawl" manner. However, China did not fall into the trap, because the Chinese do not fight the Chinese. Because China is clear that with its current strength, there is still great room for peaceful unification, and it can subdue the enemy without war, not only the military forces of Taiwan but also the military forces of the United States. This is the key to China's persistence in strategic composure and historical patience on the Taiwan issue, and the initiative and dominance of the cross-strait relations are firmly in the hands of mainland China.

The "Taiwan independence" forces and external interference forces cannot turn the tide. In fact, the US Department of Defense's simulations over the past decade show that the US military has no chance of causing trouble in the near seas of China, especially in the Taiwan Strait.

Therefore, with his transactional nature, Trump is even less willing to see a war in the Taiwan Strait, to avoid dragging the US into it. Several current and former high-ranking officials in the US have clearly expressed their unwillingness to have direct military conflict between the US and China.

For example, former State Department advisor Winton recently wrote: "Rather than saying Taiwan is an asset to counter China, it is more accurate to say that in the eyes of most Americans concerned with foreign policy, it is seen as a burden. Taiwan could potentially drag the US into a war it does not want to participate in, and the US society lacks cultural identification with Taiwan and does not consider it an object that 'must be defended.'"

This statement by Winton not only reflects the declining strategic value of Taiwan in the eyes of the US, but also the rising "abandon Taiwan" theory. It also indeed reflects Trump 2.0's lack of interest in so-called "defending Taiwan."

US Deputy Secretary of Defense Korb, who oversees Trump's military strategy policy, stated that Taiwan is not a "vital interest" of the US. US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Damer also said: "The Taiwan issue is not a matter of life or death for the US. Even if Taiwan is lost, the US people can continue to live safely and prosperously."

Trump himself was straightforward. He said, "The US is too far from Taiwan, and the People's Republic of China is too close to Taiwan," therefore he is unwilling to publicly commit to "defend" Taiwan. The hawkish pro-China figure, US Secretary of State Rubio, represented Trump in publicly stating, "The Washington government does not seek to provoke a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, nor does it want to see a conflict in the Taiwan Strait." US Deputy Secretary of State Betty claimed, "Taiwan will certainly belong to China, it's just a matter of time, and the US is not worth using any resources to prevent it."

Trump does not want the US to be dragged into a war in the Taiwan Strait. Will the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and Lai Ching-te administration still cause trouble? Will they provoke the mainland? How far can they jump? It is questionable.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1839909582087171/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.