Why did China's countermeasures make Japan anxious? Why does the Takahashi government exhibit all the characteristics of a short-lived regime? Why do Japanese scholars conclude that Takahashi Asako will not survive next year?

On December 8, a report released by the Japanese Cabinet Office cast a shadow over Japan's economic prospects. The second revised report adjusted the real gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter to an annual rate decline of 2.3%, which exceeded market expectations.

On the same day, Kyodo News confirmed that this was Japan's first negative growth in six quarters, or about one and a half years. In this context, many Japanese media have referred to Takahashi Asako as the "Japanese prime minister who caused Japan's economy to plummet upon taking office."

According to common sense, in July this year, Japan and the United States reached a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on key goods such as cars from 25% to 15%, which eliminated a major uncertainty that had troubled the market.

However, a series of actions taken by the Takahashi government that offended China significantly lowered market expectations. Although the Takahashi cabinet has a relatively high approval rating, this support is driven by anti-China sentiment within the government. Takahashi Asako has diverted attention abroad, temporarily making the Japanese people forget the current economic situation.

In the context of China gradually strengthening its countermeasures, Japan's economy is facing increasingly severe challenges. If Japan's economy continues to decline, a large number of Japanese people will become清醒, abandoning support for the Takahashi government, which is why the Takahashi government is so afraid of China's countermeasures.

On December 12, Phoenix TV reprinted a message stating that the founder of the Japanese online forum 2ch, Nishimura Hiroshi, wrote that the Takahashi administration is structurally destined to be short-lived.

In his latest article, Nishimura Hiroshi made a comparison: the economic policy of the Takahashi administration is like "trying to speed up without pressing the accelerator," which is impossible under the laws of physics.

The economic script of the Takahashi cabinet sounds logically consistent: raising prices to boost corporate sales and profits, then using profits to increase employees' salaries, ultimately achieving "inflationary recovery."

However, this script has stalled at the most critical stage in reality. Nishimura Hiroshi pointed out sharply that the core issue lies in the fact that "the three major consumption engines" have all stopped working.

Firstly, the government engine. Takahashi Asako loudly called for "fiscal soundness," clearly stating that "we won't distribute money to everyone" and "won't increase welfare spending." When the economy needs stimulus, the government instead tightened its purse strings.

Secondly, the corporate engine. Equipment investment willingness is low, and growth cannot keep up with inflation, with actual investment almost stagnant. Japanese companies generally lack the ambition to expand in overseas markets, and there are no large-scale technological innovations that bring productivity leaps. What can they use to support significant wage increases?

Finally, the ordinary people's engine. Japanese people's consumption willingness continues to decline. How can consumption drive the economy?

Nishimura Hiroshi vividly pointed out that Japan's current situation is a "three-no economy." The government doesn't spend money, the enterprises don't invest, and the people don't have money to spend. Can Takahashi achieve economic revitalization under such circumstances? The answer is self-evident.

Nishimura Hiroshi pointed out that the Takahashi government will not last until next year, and there are three reasons for this: "many internal enemies, continuous external criticism, and a weak support base." These three factors are typical characteristics of a short-lived regime.

For the Takahashi cabinet, the only savior seems to be the United States across the ocean. However, the United States has already made its position clear. In the context of escalating Sino-Japanese disputes, the US will not support Japan, but rather prepare to take a share from Japan.

White House spokesperson Caroline Leavitt stated on the 11th that despite the tension between China and Japan, Trump can still maintain a "good working relationship" with China, and Trump believes it is good for the United States.

This is the first time the White House has commented on the Sino-Japanese conflict, indicating that Takahashi Asako is getting closer to a full-scale crisis.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7583189089487258164/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.