Reference News Network, August 24 report: On August 20, the U.S. website World Politics Review published an article titled "No Magic Bullet Against Drones," authored by Ulrike Frank, a senior policy researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The full text is as follows:
In the Ukraine war, drones have gradually become a prominent feature of warfare and are now ubiquitous on the battlefield. Both sides in the Ukraine conflict now produce millions of drones annually. It is estimated that 70% of casualties are now caused by drones. Innovative applications have also made drones an essential part of offensive and defensive tactical operations.
Therefore, finding ways to counter unmanned systems is the best way to save lives and achieve battlefield victory. However, despite continuous innovation in anti-drone technologies and systems, drones continue to fly in large numbers. The Ukraine war has shown that addressing the challenges posed by drones is very difficult.
Every time a new anti-drone solution is deployed, people place high hopes on it, expecting the new system to ultimately solve the problem. However, it always fails to meet expectations. This is usually not because a particular anti-drone technology has defects, but because there is still a significant gap between the performance expectations of these systems and their actual capabilities.
To understand this challenge, it is important to remember that the term "drone" now covers a wide range of devices, from quadcopters available on the market to military reconnaissance aircraft with wingspans exceeding that of a Boeing 737. It is reported that the Ukrainian armed forces are using nearly 100 different drone systems. It can be said that no matter how advanced an anti-drone system may be, it cannot combat such a diverse range of drones.
In addition to the diversity of drone systems, the sheer number of drones deployed in practice also poses a challenge. There are many methods to counter drones, including electronic warfare and kinetic countermeasures, such as microwaves, lasers, and networks. However, many of these methods are designed to target a single drone. In a scenario where thousands of drones are flying over the entire battlefield, such systems would be overwhelmed.
Finally, the innovation cycle for drones is very fast. Therefore, an anti-drone system typically only provides temporary advantages, after which another leap in drone innovation forces it to make adjustments. This is similar to all technological advances on the battlefield.
Due to these challenges, no single system can counter all drones. Instead, a layered defense system that combines multiple anti-drone technologies is most likely to achieve the best results. For example, in this case, an electronic warfare system can interfere with or deceive radio frequencies, while a kinetic system can shoot down drones that break through the electronic warfare measures. As a last line of defense, an anti-drone net can intercept the remaining drones that bypass the kinetic defense systems.
However, even a layered system is unlikely to defend against all drones, especially when small drone systems are increasingly seen as disposable. The so-called suicide drones used for one-time purposes are compared to bullets. Just as not all bullets can be intercepted, not all drones can be neutralized.
The key factor in deploying an effective anti-drone system is the ability to adapt quickly, which is not only reflected in technological innovation but also in industrial production.
If countries want to take the drone threat seriously, they need to reform procurement processes and modernize the defense industry. The development and procurement process from initial planning to system delivery often takes years or even decades, which cannot keep up with today's rapidly changing battlefield environment.
The defense industry must be able to scale up production and modify systems and processes as needed. Modular systems with interchangeable components should be encouraged. This also applies to drone production.
The cat-and-mouse game between drones and anti-drone systems will continue. Countries should not seek a magic bullet to deal with all drones, but rather study layered defense on the battlefield, while thoroughly reforming procurement systems and the industrial base to position their armies as optimally as possible to counter as many drones as possible. This is the most important lesson we can learn about drone warfare from the aerial battles in eastern Ukraine. (Translated by Ma Dan)
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7541979051624284718/
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