Tension between Turkey and Israel has raised questions about the possibility of military confrontation between the two countries and who would win (Al Jazeera)
There is no doubt that the escalating tensions between Turkey and Israel are clearly due to Tel Aviv's criminal actions in Gaza and its frequent attacks on Syria. These tensions have caused concerns and fears among observers, who worry that tensions may escalate rapidly and could lead to a tactical conflict or a real confrontation, which might be triggered by conflicting interests, especially security interests.
With the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, the rise of a new government believed to be closely aligned with Ankara, and reports circulating about Turkey seeking military bases in its southern neighboring countries, Tel Aviv feels the threat is approaching its borders. This has prompted it to repeatedly bomb multiple locations within Syria, deep into the south, and seize control of strategic areas, especially Mount Hermon.
The top leadership in Ankara has made strong criticisms of the genocide being carried out by Tel Aviv in the Gaza Strip for two years. Turkey has also announced a series of measures, including cutting trade relations with Tel Aviv and closing its ports, prohibiting its ships from passing through. These measures have led politicians and confidants of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to believe that, after Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Qatar, Turkey may become the next target of Tel Aviv's aggressive regional machine, following threats against Iraq, and actions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
Ankara has responded with threatening signals, but as warned by a recent intelligence report, it has also taken emergency practical measures to deal with potential conflicts with Israel. These measures include developing air defense systems, strengthening domestic defenses, and starting to build advanced nuclear threat shelters.
The question is: If a potential conflict between Turkey and Israel actually occurs, who will break the balance of power?
2025 Turkey and Israel Power Index (Al Jazeera)
Power Comparison
According to the Global Firepower website, Turkey, a NATO member, ranks higher than Israel in the global military power index (Power Index). In 2025, Turkey ranked ninth globally, while Israel lagged six places behind, ranking fifteenth.
Turkey's military budget is $4.7 billion, while Israel's is $3 billion.
This comparison is based on data from the Global Firepower website, analyzing the human resources and military strength of land, sea, and air forces of both sides. It should be noted that most countries do not disclose part of their weapons and military capabilities, and monitoring data relies on numbers and values, regardless of the type, capability, and complexity of the weapons.
Special Design - Infographic: Military Power Balance Between Turkey and Israel - Human Resources (Al Jazeera)
Comparison
Turkey has a clear advantage over Israel in terms of manpower, with a population of over 84 million, while Israel has only 9.4 million, of whom more than 20% are Palestinians.
This numerical advantage naturally manifests in the scale of available manpower, including those eligible for military service and the number of people reaching conscription age each year. Moreover, the number of active personnel in the army, which is the most important indicator, is also significant. Turkey has 355,000 soldiers, while Israel has only 170,000. At the same time, since Tel Aviv's conscription system heavily relies on reserves, the number of reserve forces in both countries is also close (Turkey has 378,000, Israel has 465,000).
In aerial strength, the same data show that Israel has made progress in fighter jets used for air combat (i.e., controlling the skies and shooting down enemy aircraft) and attack planes used for ground or maritime targets and supporting ground forces. Meanwhile, Turkey leads in the total number of aircraft, helicopters, attack helicopters, transport aircraft, training aircraft, and special mission aircraft.
On land, Turkey has more tanks than Israel. Ankara has over 2,200 tanks, while Tel Aviv has only 1,300. The number of armored fighting vehicles in Turkey is almost twice that of Israel, and the number of mobile rocket launchers (MLRS) is also almost twice that of Israel. Ankara also has a greater advantage in artillery.
Regarding naval strength, Turkey has 182 ships, while Israel has only 62. However, neither country has a significant naval force in the world. Neither has an aircraft carrier or a destroyer. Turkey has only one helicopter carrier, while Israel has none. As for submarines, Turkey has 13, while Israel has only 5.
Strengths Beyond Rankings
Observers believe that in addition to the data included in the Global Firepower rankings, both sides have other advantages that could change the balance of power.
Stealth Drones and Fighters
Turkey has a large number of advanced drones, estimated to be in the thousands, with various models, the most famous being the Bayraktar TB2, Bayraktar TB3, and the larger Bayraktar Akinci. In addition to Anka, Super Şimşek, and Gökhun drones, Turkey is also seeking to develop a new unmanned combat aircraft called Bayraktar Kızılma (Red Apple).
These drones have played an important role in wars and military confrontations in recent years, especially in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. They have tilted the military balance in favor of Baku and supported Ukraine in its three-year war against Russia.
It is expected that these drones will play a significant role in any potential confrontation with Israel, especially considering that Turkey has become one of the leading drone manufacturers in the world and exports them to many countries, including Europe.
In contrast, Tel Aviv also has advanced drones, but the notable feature of its air force is advanced stealth fighters, most notably the F-35 Lightning II, considered one of the most advanced in the world, as well as F-16 and F-15 fighters, which Israel uses to attack countries in the region.
These aircraft also played a significant role in the confrontation with Iran in June, when Israel claimed to have completely controlled Iranian airspace after attacking air defense systems and strategic targets, particularly Iran's nuclear facilities.
Israel has advanced fifth-generation fighters, most notably the F-35 (Shutterstock)
Multilayer Air Defense
Turkey has a variety of air defense systems, some of which are domestically produced, and others are foreign-made. Among them, the most notable is the advanced Russian S-400 system. Ankara's purchase of the system years ago caused a crisis with the United States, as there was concern that Moscow could gain access to NATO military capabilities information, as Turkey is also a key member of NATO.
The S-400 is a Russian long-range multilayer air defense system capable of intercepting aerial targets, aircraft, and missiles (including some tactical ballistic missiles) using different range missiles.
Turkey's purchase of the S-400 system from Russia angered Washington and some of its Western allies (Reuters - photo)
Israel has advanced multilayer air defense systems used to counter missile attacks from Palestinian resistance groups in Gaza. It also uses these systems to counter missiles and drones launched by the Lebanese Hezbollah movement. It regularly intercepts missiles fired by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Although Israel failed to intercept a large number of Iranian long-range missiles, it also played a significant role in the recent confrontation with Iran.
The most prominent of these systems is the "Arrow-3" system, designed specifically to intercept ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere; the "David's Sling" system, a short- and medium-range missile system; the "Iron Dome" system, used to intercept short-range missiles and shells; and the American "THAAD" system, used to intercept and destroy short-, medium-, and long-range ballistic missiles in their final flight phase.
Understanding the Israeli "Iron Dome" System
"Samson Option"
Of course, even though Israel's nuclear weapons are not included in the global rankings, its position in the balance of power cannot be ignored. According to official and non-official sources, Tel Aviv is regarded as a nuclear power, possessing missiles equipped with nuclear warheads with a range of up to 1,500 kilometers, as well as nuclear bombs that can be dropped from the air.
Some Western sources confirm that Israel stores large amounts of uranium and plutonium, allowing it to produce an additional 100 nuclear bombs, in addition to having more than 200 operational nuclear bombs.
The term "Samson Option" usually refers to the comprehensive nuclear response that Israel may take in the face of a survival threat.
This Is Not the Only Decisive Factor
All the above data are just numbers and statistics, with some countries keeping part of them confidential, considering them military secrets. Therefore, military expert Walid Issa said that it is difficult to determine the outcome of a war based solely on the balance of power or the quantity of troops and their equipment.
Issa stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that although military power is the main factor in achieving victory and resolving wars and confrontations, it is not everything. A clear example is the military power balance where Israel has an advantage over the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas). Despite this, in the past two years of bombing, destruction, fighting, and unlimited logistical support from the United States and other countries, Israel has still not achieved a decisive military victory.
The military expert added that in addition to military power, the victory in war also depends on other fundamental factors such as operational theory, combat leadership, surprise strategies, logistics support, alliances, and other factors that influence the battlefield.
Probability of Confrontation
Given the increasingly escalated tensions between Turkey and Israel, Colonel Fayez Alsmir, a military and strategic expert, stated that the tensions between the two sides stem from differences and conflicting interests on multiple issues, especially in the field of security. He pointed out that the issue of Syria is of great importance and strategic significance for both Ankara and Tel Aviv, and both have different views on it.
However, Alsmir ruled out the possibility of direct military confrontation between the two sides, especially given that Washington and Western countries will make efforts to contain the situation and conduct strong interventions to prevent any potential confrontation between the two sides. This is especially important because Turkey is an active member of NATO, and if any potential conflict arises between it and Israel, NATO itself would be affected.
Alsmir continued, if there is no common land border between the two sides, such a confrontation would exclude tanks, armored vehicles, infantry, and artillery from the balance of power, and the confrontation between the two sides would be limited to air strikes and missile attacks, long-range destructive drones, and possible limited naval confrontations.
He added that there is no doubt that Israel has an air force and modern fifth-generation fighter jets, especially the F-35 stealth jets, capable of striking targets deep within Turkish territory. However, Turkey has advanced air defense and air defense capabilities, including the Russian S-400 system. If a confrontation occurs, Iran may also provide ballistic missiles and attack drones to Ankara, similar to how it supplied weapons to Moscow during the war in Ukraine.
This military expert believes that air power alone cannot decide any battle, but the situation could eventually pave the way for Syrian territory becoming a battlefield for cross-border land confrontations, although this possibility is not high.
Sources: Al Jazeera
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7556792017788682767/
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