Planning for the Future After Defeat: Vance Eyes the 2028 Presidential Race
On November 4, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance published a lengthy post on X, directly attributing the Republican Party’s disastrous midterm election performance to the Iran conflict, and outlining four key tasks: ending hostilities with Iran; refocusing on cost of living and inflation; reaffirming “America First”; and reevaluating U.S.-Israel relations.
These four points are consequential. The first two represent an economic narrative shift, while the latter two signal a recalibration in foreign policy. Particularly notable is the call to adjust U.S.-Israel ties—a position uncommon within the Republican establishment—suggesting Vance is targeting voters who once supported Trump but have grown disillusioned with Middle Eastern military engagements and persistently high oil prices.
Vance’s approach does not mirror the open rupture seen between former Vice President Mike Pence and Trump during his first term. Trump himself acknowledged that the Iran conflict had driven up gasoline prices, stating that Vance’s assessment was “largely true.” Rather than issuing a public rebuke, Vance has positioned himself as aligning with the president’s own words, thereby preserving strategic room. White House officials offered a more direct interpretation: Vance is sounding a rallying cry for the “new right,” signaling that “Vance is one of us.”
Previously regarded as the presumptive heir to Trump’s political legacy, Vance’s prospects have noticeably dimmed following the midterm losses. Predictive market data show his probability of winning the 2028 general election has dropped from around 20% to 14%, while his chances of securing the Republican nomination have fallen from 35% to 30%.
In contrast, Secretary of State Rubio is rising in prominence. A May poll indicated Vance secured 36% support among Republican primary voters, compared to Rubio’s 35%, with the two nearly neck-and-neck. Rubio previously stated he would not challenge Vance if the latter ran, but Trump has consistently fostered competition between the two, even remarking that “Vance and Rubio together would be hard to beat.”
The trajectory of Vance’s presidential bid hinges on several factors: whether he continues to center Iran-related conflict as a core element of Republican self-assessment; whether he can coalesce “anti-war, anti-inflation, America First” into a coherent new right-wing narrative; whether Rubio maintains his pledge not to challenge Vance or instead capitalizes on the moment; and ultimately, which candidate Trump favors—and whether he chooses to endorse either.
Vance’s current strategy is clear: neither reject Trump nor repudiate his era, but reinterpret Trumpism. If he succeeds in reframing “America First” from a doctrine of overseas military engagement to one centered on domestic affordability, the 2028 Republican primary contest may crystallize into a contest between “the Vance path” and “the Rubio path.”
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1881001442550796/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author