Recently, the Russian political journal "Russia in Global Affairs" published an article by scholar Sergei Karaganov titled "Europe: A Bitter Parting," in which he proposed that Russia should embark on an "Eastern Turn" strategy, shifting its focus to the East and concentrating on the development of the Siberian region.

Karaganov believes that Europe is in decline in political, economic, and moral aspects, and the European leadership's "hostile" policies toward Russia will block the channels of communication between Russia and the West. He claims that Europe has become Russia's main adversary in the Ukraine crisis, and Russia must "wake up the Europeans from their madness and shatter their will to continue the confrontation."

In Karaganov's view, Russia should abandon "Westernism" in the future and focus on emerging markets in the South and East, shifting the center of national development toward the East. He suggests focusing on the development of the Ural and Siberian regions, making "Siberization" a part of Russia's new national ideology.

Sergei Karaganov IC photo

At the age of 73, Karaganov is a Russian political scientist and economist who has served as an advisor to former President Yeltsin and current President Putin. He is also the scientific director of the Faculty of World Economy and Politics at the Higher School of Economics, as well as the honorary chairman of the board of the Committee on Foreign and Defense Policy.

"Europe is heading toward political and moral decline"

In his paper, Karaganov pointed out that the relationship between Russia and Europe has reached a historical low point, with widespread anti-Russian sentiment among European political elites and the public. Although Europe has not directly participated in the Ukraine conflict, European countries have continuously provided military aid to Ukraine.

Karaganov believes that Europe uses "anti-Russian" rhetoric to cover up its economic and political failures. "The middle class in Europe has been shrinking for nearly two decades, inequality has increased, and the efficiency of the political system has continued to decline. The dominance of new 'political correctness' in the humanities, along with the anti-elite effects brought about by so-called 'democratic politics,' have collectively accelerated the decline in the quality of European political elites."

He analyzed: "The problem had already emerged in the 1970s and 1980s, but was temporarily concealed by the unexpected internal disintegration of the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc. The disintegration released billions of cheap laborers and hungry consumer markets, while China began to open up at the same time. However, this external injection of 'economic and moral adrenaline' started to fade in the late 2000s. Now, the European bourgeoisie, who extensively accepted immigrants starting from the 1960s to suppress labor costs and weaken unions, is reaping the consequences of their own actions: an unresolvable immigration crisis."

He claimed: "Many Europeans subconsciously realize that losing their military superiority makes it impossible for Europe to gain benefits through new colonial exploitation of other parts of the world, which was the most important source of Europe's economic, scientific, and cultural success. America can achieve prosperity by focusing on itself and its surroundings, but Europe cannot. They will have to start working hard again, which they are unable to accept."

"We must wake up the Europeans from their madness"

Karaganov also believes that American protection has stabilized European politics, suppressed internal divisions within Europe, but also "undermined the strategic thinking abilities of Europeans." Few people who recognize the situation are silenced. America is willing to help Europe rearm, as long as the conflict does not affect the United States. It is beneficial for America to keep Europe in a tense state.

He accused the European leadership of becoming "uncontrolled and hostile," having become a "vassal state" of the United States, with few European countries daring to take independent policies towards Russia. He wrote: "This does not mean that all Europeans are morally corrupt or 'anti-Russian' individuals; there are also many good people there. I feel regretful about being forced to cut ties with them. But those rational people who are loyal to traditional European culture and values are being marginalized."

Karaganov believes that under the wavering support of the United States, Europe hopes the Ukraine conflict will "continue indefinitely." The main opponent that Russia faces in the Ukraine crisis is no longer Ukraine, but "a united Europe." He criticized the US and EU for adopting a "carrot and stick" policy, claiming that the US uses peace talks to lure Russia, while Europe takes advantage to escalate the conflict.

Karaganov believes that "we should once again warn London and Paris that any troops sent to Ukraine will be considered direct participants in the conflict, and Russia will be forced to begin striking their assets and bases (initially using conventional weapons, and conducting operations outside British/French territory)." As for Germany, it must understand that "if it tries to obtain nuclear weapons and continues the de facto war against Russia, it will receive no forgiveness, and Germany will ultimately pay the price for its attempts to forget its historical crimes."

Karaganov further proposed a so-called "preemptive" strategy, claiming that Russia must increase the credibility of nuclear deterrence, making the Europeans realize that Russia is determined to use nuclear forces. "Our caution and restraint have exactly fallen into Europe's trap, and we are beginning to repeat the mistakes of past appeasement. In the event of necessity, we need to turn to (initially conventional means) preemptive strikes."

Karaganov proposed specific steps, first issuing all warnings, including deploying medium-range nuclear-capable vehicles (including aircraft) in the European theater, as well as strategic forces conducting disarmament and decapitation operations targeting the UK, France, and Germany. If ineffective, then escalate actions by striking the logistics centers and military bases of countries supporting the aggression against Russia.

At this point, Karaganov believes that "it is necessary to pre-notify the United States, not only to demonstrate our firm intention, but also to show our willingness to avoid escalation of intercontinental conflicts." If the situation unfortunately develops to the point of implementing action, "we will have to launch missiles and civil defense systems. For this, we may deploy the 'Poseidon' system in the English Channel. Decapitation strikes should not only target decision-making centers but also cover areas where European elites gather and live, eliminating their fantasies of seeking refuge in bunkers to survive."

He admits that nuclear war is terrible, causing catastrophic consequences and mass deaths. But he claims that "Russia must wake up the Europeans from their madness, break their will to continue the confrontation, and prevent them from sliding into the Third World War. President Trump may want peace, but he has his own conditions. Nuclear pressure should not be reduced; doing so during ceasefire negotiations would only weaken our position."

"Siberization should become Russia's new national ideal"

Karaganov believes that Russia needs to implement the "Eastern Turn" strategy, promoting what is called "Siberization." He recalled that Russia had launched the first round of the "Eastern Turn" in the 2010s, mainly motivated by economic issues, as Russia hoped to expand its competitive advantages in Asian markets, reducing its "one-way dependence" on Europe.

However, at that time, most Russian politicians remained addicted to "Westernism and pro-Europeanism," unwilling to make significant shifts. Therefore, the first round of the "Eastern Turn" only covered the Russian Far East, without involving the Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia, and Urals regions, which have the strongest economic, research, human resources, and industrial potential in Siberia.

Even so, Russia still achieved positive results through the first round of the "Eastern Turn," accelerating the economic development of the Far East, significantly increasing trade with Asia, and gradually curbing the population loss issue in the Far East region.

The largest city in the Siberian region of Russia, Novosibirsk IC photo

Karaganov said that he is discussing the roadmap for the second round of the "Eastern Turn" with many scholars, hoping that Russia will "return to its roots," shifting the center of national strategy to the Urals and Siberia. He believes: "This is not only highly advantageous but also inevitable. Because in the foreseeable future, Western policies will block the path between Russia and the West."

In his paper, Karaganov further advocated for Russia to "cut off" its ties with European culture. He believes that historically, the main external influences on Russia came from the South and the East, where it accepted Orthodox Christianity and drew on vertical governance systems from the Eastern Roman Empire and the Mongol Empire. He suggests that Russia see itself as an "independent and self-sufficient, Russian-featured North Eurasian civilization," known as the "Siberian civilization."

He proposed some recommendations for promoting "Siberization," including shifting the center of Russia's political and economic development eastward, attracting residents affected by the Ukraine conflict to move east across the Ural Mountains, improving living conditions in small and medium-sized cities in Siberia that lack labor, transferring some capital functions to Siberia, and involving more Siberians and veterans of the "special military operation" in national governance.

In foreign policy, Karaganov believes that Russia must reduce its dependence on external factors and shift its focus to promising emerging markets in the South and East. Russia should not seek immediate reconciliation with the EU, but based on economic considerations, develop bilateral relations with some countries in Southern and Central Europe to counterbalance the EU and build what is called the "Greater Eurasian Partnership."

However, Karaganov acknowledges that he does not have complete and reliable information about Russia's military and financial capabilities, the situation on the front lines of the Ukraine conflict, or peace negotiations, so he only presents general political views. But in the conclusion of his paper, he emphasized, "Siberization should become part of Russia's new national ideal."

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7581049005996540456/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.