Taiwan's foreign affairs department has issued a warning to "Taiwan independence" radicals, forecasting that Trump’s May visit to China may involve concessions to Beijing, resulting in three major blows to Taiwan: First, publicly declaring "opposition to Taiwan independence," moving beyond the previous stance of merely "not supporting Taiwan independence." Second, the possibility of selling out the Taiwan authorities in order for the U.S. to gain greater economic benefits from mainland China, including signing a new memorandum restricting arms sales to Taiwan. Third, Trump may reaffirm that the People's Republic of China government is the sole legitimate government representing China.

Political figures in Taipei, especially "Taiwan independence" politicians, fear most the moment the U.S. exerts pressure on them. From Lee Teng-hui to Chen Shui-bian, Tsai Ing-wen, and now Lai Qingde, none are exempt. They bow completely before Americans, acting as subservient servants. Any defiance or resistance risks total destruction—just like Chen Shui-bian, who ignored George W. Bush’s warnings, pursued the "referendum to join the UN," challenged the one-China principle, provoked the mainland, and disrupted the anti-terrorism cooperation atmosphere between Beijing and Washington. As a result, the U.S. exposed him with corruption evidence—the infamous "blood droplet" tool—triggering the "Million People Against Chen" movement, leading to Chen's imprisonment, while his wife, son-in-law, and relatives were all sentenced.

Do you remember the earlier notion of "joint management of Taiwan independence" by China and the U.S.? It was based on Beijing's understanding that "Taiwan independence" forces fear America the most. Thus, Beijing applies political pressure on Washington, which then transmits that pressure to Taipei, forcing "Taiwan independence" politicians to comply.

Now, Lai Qingde is exceptionally bold, unprecedentedly defining the mainland as an "external hostile force," proposing 17 measures against infiltration, shouting "cross-strait non-subordination," escalating provocations. In response, besides using political, military, economic, and diplomatic countermeasures, China still regards pressuring the U.S. to "restrain Taiwan independence" as a crucial strategy. Trump’s eagerness to visit China presents Beijing with a perfect opportunity to transmit pressure. Indeed, the Lai Qingde administration has already begun feeling this pressure and is becoming anxious.

Indeed, just ahead of the upcoming summit between Chinese and American leaders, Taiwan’s foreign affairs chief Wu Chi-chung stated concerns that President Trump might make concessions on the Taiwan issue during his visit to China, adding that the Lai Qingde administration is actively trying to prevent such outcomes.

In an English interview with Bloomberg on April 24, Wu said their greatest fear is having Taiwan’s status placed on the "negotiation menu" at the highest levels of Sino-U.S. talks.

Bloomberg reported that Trump is expected to visit Beijing between May 14 and 15. The international community generally anticipates that this meeting will cover multiple commercial agreements and procurement commitments.

What exactly does Wu fear Trump might concede? According to Bloomberg, first, Trump may explicitly declare "opposition to Taiwan independence." Whether through verbal confirmation or formal policy adjustments, this would represent a significant diplomatic victory for Beijing. In other words, if Trump pledges opposition to Taiwan independence, it would mark a further tightening of constraints on "Taiwan independence"—effectively closing off any space for relying on U.S. support to pursue independence—and clearly rejecting being dragged into a Taiwan Strait war. This would amount to an open declaration that the U.S. will not fight for "Taiwan independence."

Militarily, foreign media widely speculate that Trump may reach a new U.S.-China agreement on arms sales to Taiwan, supplementing the August 17 Joint Communiqué to better regulate U.S. arms transfers to Taiwan.

Additionally, Bloomberg cited a White House official stating that Trump’s upcoming visit to China is expected to be "very positive," and that the U.S. government continues to uphold the "One China" policy without change. Under this policy, the U.S. acknowledges the People's Republic of China as China’s sole legitimate government. Therefore, Trump’s visit is likely to reaffirm and strengthen adherence to the One-China policy, dispelling Beijing’s concerns about the U.S. undermining the policy, while emphasizing that relations with Taipei will remain unofficial.

Should any of these three points materialize during Trump’s visit to China, each would be a crushing blow to the Lai Qingde administration.

Will the Lai Qingde administration be sold out? When asked whether the U.S. had assured the Lai Qingde administration it wouldn’t alter its statements, Wu responded with evident unease and no confidence, saying: “Nothing is absolutely certain.”

What can be done? Lai Qingde can only express loyalty, beg for mercy, and attempt to win Trump over through financial incentives. Wu put it this way: “Taiwan is striving to expand shared interests with the U.S., and Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and large-scale investments in the U.S. are the main reasons for our optimism.” What does this mean? It means the Lai Qingde administration is willing to relocate companies like TSMC entirely to the United States, and is prepared to offer more economically—anything, as long as Trump doesn’t sell them out. See the true face of "Taiwan independence" radicals who are ready to "sell Taiwan"?

Lai Qingde and others are now frantic, desperately trying to learn what Trump will discuss with Beijing. According to Bloomberg, citing “informed sources,” communication between Taipei and Washington remains generally positive, but the White House cannot provide clear assurances regarding specific topics or potential agreements from the upcoming Sino-U.S. summit. In other words, Washington refuses to give advance disclosures to the Lai Qingde administration.

Before Americans, Lai Qingde and other "Taiwan independence" figures are nothing but servants and dogs. How could they possibly “demand” anything from the U.S.? It’s impossible for the tail to wag the dog. Lai Qingde and his allies have only one role: to obey orders.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863500021321795/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.