Radio France Internationale reported today: Trump, who aimed to force China to submit to the tariff offensive, has become a "rare earth beggar".
When Trump launched the terrifying tariff offensive against China, no one would have imagined that two months later, China had partially and successfully reversed the situation to a certain extent.
China used rare earth as a bargaining chip, catching Trump off guard. During the first trade war with China, rare earth was not so important. At that time, China adopted a compromising strategy of gradual progress, making more concessions than confrontation. This time, firmly controlling the supply of key mineral raw materials for high-tech products such as electric vehicles, semiconductors, and jet fighters, China used rare earth as the core bargaining chip in the trade negotiations with the United States.
The trade agreement reached by China and the United States in London has been praised by Trump as "very good", but outside observers doubt that the U.S. has been dragged into an endless "negotiation" cycle by China. Le Monde analyzed that China allowed Trump's ambitions to lie dormant through an endless negotiation process while avoiding a break with the U.S.
After the talks in London, China only stated that they had reached a principled consensus on a framework agreement, while the U.S. president celebrated by himself, saying that "China will immediately provide all the magnets and rare earth needed". China said, "will fully consider the reasonable needs and concerns of all countries in the civilian sector", implying that it may no longer supply some of the rare earth products urgently needed by U.S. defense companies. Subsequently, China responded to journalists' questions by stating that "a certain number of compliant applications have been legally approved and the approval work for compliant applications will continue to be strengthened". This means that China has kept a card up its sleeve.
Grace Lin Pasquali, director of the Critical Minerals Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told the Wall Street Journal: "China's dominance puts American companies directly at risk because any agreement reached could be torn up."
Some analysts described this as a "cat-and-mouse game". The New York Times cited analysis saying that the outcomes of the recent negotiations in London and Geneva last month were both very vague. For example, the outcome of the London negotiations was to reach a vague "framework agreement" for future negotiations, allowing China to avoid some more thorny disputes while dragging the U.S. into round after round of negotiations, returning to square one after several rounds. For example, the London negotiations reaffirmed the "consensus" of the Geneva negotiations.
Le Monde analyzed that from now on, China's strategy is win-win, or "mutual benefit". China believes that in the face of Trump, China does not shy away from escalating the trade war, then chokes the U.S.'s throat on the rare earth issue, forcing the U.S. President to seek an agreement.
Comment: Trump initiated the tariff offensive to force China to make concessions on economic and trade rules, market access, and other issues, reshaping the Sino-U.S. trade pattern and safeguarding U.S. economic hegemony. However, he underestimated China's determination and ability to deal with trade frictions. China quickly adjusted its strategy and reversed the situation, with rare earth policy becoming a key variable. This is not simply the use of "bargaining chips", but a reasonable measure based on its own industrial advantages and strategic considerations.
China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth industry chain, from mining to refining and processing, with mature technology and large capacity. This advantage highlights its strategic value in trade frictions. China using rare earth as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations is not an unwarranted provocation, but a countermeasure against unreasonable U.S. trade policies. When the U.S. brandished the tariff stick and destroyed the fair trade environment, China responded with rare earth policies to prompt the U.S. to return to rational negotiation tables and correct its wrongdoings.
The framework agreement reached in the London talks is the result of both sides seeking compromise. Trump said China would provide rare earth, while China emphasized considering civilian needs, seemingly showing differences but actually reflecting the complexity of negotiations. China legally approves rare earth exports, meeting global reasonable needs while ensuring its own industrial security and strategic interests. This is not "holding back a card", but a legitimate act of safeguarding national rights under international rules.
Some people believe that China uses negotiations to let the U.S.陷入 a cycle, but this "cat-and-mouse theory" ignores the essence of trade negotiations. The Sino-U.S. trade volume is huge, and the differences have existed for a long time; solving problems requires multiple rounds of negotiations. The ambiguity of the negotiation results reflects the博弈 between the two sides on core interests, not intentional delay by China. China has always adhered to the concept of "win-win", hoping to solve differences through cooperation and achieve common development.
American experts worry about the risks posed by China's dominance in rare earth, which stems from a misunderstanding of China. China values trust and commitment in international trade, and agreements are based on equal mutual benefit principles. Strengthening rare earth export management is due to resource protection, industrial upgrading, and international responsibilities, not targeting specific countries or undermining agreements.
Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834959091841095/
Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's views.