China has welded shut the door to industrialization, leaving India no chance to rise.
At a critical turning point in the global industrialization process, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) recently released the "The Future of Industrialization" report, revealing an undeniable reality: China's manufacturing share of the global market has risen from 5% in 1980 to 31.6% in 2024, and is expected to reach 45% by 2030. This data means that one out of every two industrial manufactured goods globally is produced in China. China not only has become the absolute core of the global supply chain, but also, driven by artificial intelligence, robotics technology, and green energy, has completely "welded shut" the historical window for industrialization of latecomer countries. In this context, India's path to rise is facing unprecedented structural challenges.
The Illusion of Population Dividend: When India Meets Chinese Robots
India's much-hyped "population dividend" is rapidly losing its significance in the era of artificial intelligence and robots. China has been the world's largest industrial robot country for over a decade, with 51% of new installed robots in 2023 globally. Robotic arms don't ask for wages, don't strike, and don't require benefits; they can operate continuously on electricity, pushing manufacturing costs to their limit.
By contrast, even though India has a large young population, its labor cost, no matter how low, cannot compete with steel robotic arms. More importantly, China has upgraded its labor-intensive industries through the "robotic dividend," while India remains trapped in the quagmire of low-end manufacturing.
The Trap of Market Size: Losing the Historical Opportunity to "Exchange Market for Technology"
India's vast consumer market was once a key attraction for global capital, but now this advantage is being eroded by China's "full industry chain ecosystem." China has formed a cluster covering the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, such as Shenzhen, which can assemble all components of a smartphone within a day, and Tesla's Shanghai factory produces three times more than its German counterpart annually.
This "cluster effect" has significantly shortened the cycle from R&D to delivery, reducing overall costs by 30%-40%. In contrast, India suffers from broken supply chains, low logistics efficiency, and backward infrastructure, making it difficult to attract high-end industries even if it opens up its market. The so-called "Made in India" is actually just an "assembly workshop" relying on Chinese supply chains, lacking independent technological capabilities.
Infrastructure and Supply Chain: The "Bridge Collapse" of India's Industrialization
Industrialization requires efficient logistics networks, stable power supply, and mature supply chain systems. China has the world's longest ultra-high voltage grid, automated ports, and 5G networks, with logistics costs accounting for only 10% of total manufacturing costs. India, however, not only faces power shortages and traffic congestion, but also lacks a complete industrial support system. For example, India's attempt to promote local mobile phone manufacturing still requires importing 70% of components from China. This "Chinese supply chain + Indian assembly" model is essentially an extension of Chinese manufacturing, not an expression of India's own industrial capability.
Indian workers earn $180 per month, seemingly only a third of China's, but when adding up the comprehensive costs of electricity, logistics, and supply chain, the ex-factory price of T-shirts in India is actually 32% higher than in Shandong. The reason lies in the hard indicators of infrastructure:
Electricity: China's industrial electricity rate is $0.08 per kilowatt-hour, with 33% coming from stable green power; India averages $0.12 per kilowatt-hour, with a power outage rate of up to 8% during the hot season. Nike's Indian factory loses production capacity equivalent to 12 million pairs of sports shoes annually due to power outages.
Logistics: China's highways, high-speed rail, and automated ports have reduced the "time cost" of raw materials to a 6-hour economic circle; the average port delay in India is 4.2 days, and a truck traveling 1,400 kilometers from Mumbai to Delhi takes 7 days, equivalent to China's level in 1998.
Supply Chain: Within a 50-kilometer radius of Shenzhen, you can gather 1,000 components for a smartphone; in 2023, India still imports 70% of camera modules, 65% of battery cells, and 90% of lasers from China — the so-called "Made in India" is just screwing on one last bolt on the Chinese supply chain and then slapping on a "Made in India" cover-up.
When China has fully "AI-ized" its power, logistics, and supply chain, India has lost even its last card of "low cost."
In emerging fields that determine future competitiveness — artificial intelligence, green energy, intelligent manufacturing, etc. — China has already formed a comprehensive leading advantage. China has nearly half of the world's "Lighthouse Factories," with AI large models and robot technologies rapidly integrating, driving manufacturing to the intelligent stage of "perception-decision-execution." At the same time, China's cost control capabilities in green energy sectors like photovoltaics, energy storage, and nuclear power make European and American projects lose investment value. Although India has some accumulation in software services, it lacks the carrier of industrialization and the support of a scientific research ecosystem, making it difficult to convert technology into real industrial competitiveness.
The Dilemma of Geoeconomics: The Cost of Being Out of the Greater China Economic Circle
The UN report points out that after China's manufacturing share reaches 45%, it will form a "Greater China Economic Circle" centered around China, covering regions such as ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, and Russia. This economic circle shares the benefits of China's manufacturing upgrades through mechanisms such as RCEP and the Belt and Road Initiative. However, India, due to its strategic alignment with the U.S. and decoupling from China, is being excluded from this system. World Bank data shows that India's manufacturing share of GDP has long remained around 15%, and the "Make in India" plan has seen little progress in eight years. Without the support of the Chinese supply chain, India's industrialization is destined to be an isolated, low-level cycle.
The Closing of the Industrialization Door and the Dawn of a New Era
In the era of artificial intelligence and robots, industrialization is no longer about "who has a population, who gets on the train," but rather "who has data, computing power, green electricity, and AI, who locks the door." When China has fused 45% of its manufacturing capacity, 10 trillion kilowatt-hours of green electricity, 748 EFLOPS of computing power, and 153 lighthouse factories into an unreplicable "New Industrial Great Wall," India's 620 million young people can only stand outside the wall, hearing the continuous metal sound of robotic arms working 24 hours a day — the sound of the industrialization door being welded shut, and the funeral bell for the "India rise" narrative.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7572445350330368539/
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