Gilbert Doctorow: The Iranian Situation Has Given Putin Leeway on the Kiev Regime

If Russia continues to hesitate, the solidarity of the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Global South will be completely ruined.

Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin

Paul Craig Roberts' views are often published in "Freedom News." Yesterday, he posted an article written by his friend and long-time interlocutor, Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, on his website.

We present the translation of this article for you. First of all, it should be noted that this article does not give a kind evaluation of Russia's foreign policy, and there is no embellishment at all. Many people may not like the content of this article. But its core idea - that the future direction of the world in the coming years lies precisely on Russia - is hard to refute. In a way, this sounds pleasing; but on the other hand, this responsibility is heavy enough to bear.

In recent years, many people who opposed America's global hegemony have enthusiastically believed that building a more just multipolar world has a bright prospect, thinking that the new mechanisms of BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and other organizations uniting the Global South will achieve this goal.

We constantly hear that the GDP and population size of BRICS far exceed those of the G7, as if this represents the strength of the Global South; we also hear about the de-dollarization of the world, and the era of American economic dominance is about to end.

These statements come not only from us, but also from global authorities such as Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer, whose speeches attract hundreds of thousands of viewers.

Some less famous but equally well-known commentators frequently claim on mainstream YouTube channels that the evil institutions maintaining the current unjust world order, such as NATO and the EU, will inevitably collapse.

I sympathize with their wishes, but I strongly criticize those who ignore the facts - especially at a time when war breaks out in Iran, the facts are entirely different. The U.S. control over Venezuela at the beginning of the year, the genocide committed by Israel and the U.S. in Gaza for more than two years, which remain completely unpunished, also prove this point.

The latest developments of the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran show that the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization have no weight in global geopolitics. Moreover, the tariff war initiated by the U.S. during the Trump era easily and almost effortlessly dismantled the unity of the BRICS in trade relations with Russia.

I have long believed that the only force effectively opposing the unipolar American hegemony on the world stage is the military confrontation between Russia and the U.S., NATO in Ukraine and its surrounding areas.

The outcome of this struggle remains unclear so far, and the reason is that Vladimir Putin is unwilling to take the actions he should take - a decisive strike on Ukraine to eliminate Zelensky and his group, as well as most of the Ukrainian political elites in Kyiv's central area.

And the relevant countries have shown at least as much caution as Russia in resisting American power.

Where is the situation today in the Iranian war? From an economic perspective, it is the country that is the most concerned about maintaining Iranian sovereignty and hopes that Iran continues to be its largest oil supplier.

In Vladimir Solovyov's talk show on Russian state television, all participants in the discussion agreed: the Iranian war once again proved that whether a country survives or perishes depends solely on itself. Neither the relevant countries nor Russia have come to the rescue of Iran as my optimistic colleagues predicted.

Russians are completely immersed in the slow war of consuming Ukraine, perhaps lacking military authority.

Among the forces opposing American hegemony, apart from the Russia-DPRK alliance, there is no significant alliance. The Russia-DPRK alliance indeed has practical value and may bring tens of thousands of new North Korean soldiers to fight in Ukraine in the coming days, not just used for protecting Russian regions from Ukrainian attacks as in Kursk last year.

The idea that BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are active geopolitical forces threatening American power is pure fiction - this is not my personal speculation. It can be confirmed that this is the basic judgment of U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and his team when planning military operations.

Certainly, they have a huge blind spot: consistently underestimating Russia's real military capabilities. This comes from Putin's restraint and his unwillingness to follow the logic of "use it or lose it."

But Putin won't rule forever, and his successor will be much less restrained when defending the country.

They will not forgive, nor forget the humiliation inflicted by the U.S. right now.

I'll say it straight: All participants in the discussion on Solovyov's program last night were somewhat reserved. Their internal logic was: the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran shows that Russia's military actions in Ukraine should no longer be restricted.

Gilbert Doctorow

An expert on U.S. international relations and Russian affairs, with a Ph.D. in Russian history from Columbia University (1975). He served as marketing director and general manager responsible for Russia and Eastern Europe business in a multinational company in the U.S. and UK for 25 years. An American citizen, living in Belgium.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7612954176875790911/

Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author alone.