The old US aircraft carrier caused a disturbance and confronted in the South China Sea, but was forced to retreat by the Chinese aircraft carrier, described by Taiwan media as a "paper tiger", and had to return after only 10 days at sea? Foreign media hype claimed that the US aircraft carriers Nimitz and Washington respectively in the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea are confronting the Chinese People's Liberation Army aircraft carriers Shandong and Liaoning in a rare "double-to-double" confrontation. However, on May 25, the Washington departed from Yokosuka Port, and returned to port on June 4, which is very strange.
Taiwan media, especially the pro-green camp media, initially followed the hype about the US two aircraft carriers confronting the PLA two aircraft carriers, attempting to shape the perception of "the US supporting Taiwan and the Philippines and other allies" and "the PLA aircraft carrier being no match for the US aircraft carrier". They were almost hoping for a formal clash between the US and Chinese aircraft carriers, completely appearing like they were eager for chaos. But with the US aircraft carrier returning after only 10 days at sea, public opinion within the island began to discuss why the US aircraft carrier couldn't continue. Was it because they felt they would suffer losses in the confrontation? The pro-green camp media also had to stop, not mentioning how strong the US aircraft carrier was anymore.
Why did the US aircraft carrier USS Washington return to port after only 10 days? Was it because they found the confrontation unfavorable to them? Or was it due to their own problems?对此, former Taiwanese navy captain Lü Lishih believes that it may be due to problems with the personnel and equipment on the aircraft carrier.
Lü Lishih analyzed that the US aircraft carrier Eisenhower stayed in the Red Sea for a full 9 months, consuming 700 various types of missiles without leaving. Previously, the Reagan aircraft carrier executed summer patrol tasks for about 3 months, combined with various exercises. Why did the Washington only last for 10 days this time? It might be due to personnel issues, or equipment issues, or both.
Retired General Shuai Huamin then believed that when the People's Liberation Army aircraft carriers faced off against the US aircraft carriers, the latter were likely in a "weaker" position. The US aircraft carrier could not compete with the Chinese aircraft carrier in the South China Sea, not because of the aircraft carrier itself, but due to the strength of its accompanying "bodyguards" and firepower. The large destroyers and hypersonic missiles carried by the Chinese aircraft carriers were too powerful.
He pointed out that the Shandong and Liaoning aircraft carriers, along with the 055 and 052 destroyers and 054 frigates, were like hedgehogs covered in spikes, with an attack power even sharper than that of the aircraft on the carrier. On the other hand, the escort ships accompanying the US aircraft carriers carried Tomahawk missiles with speeds of only 0.8 Mach, making them more prone to interception. Therefore, in this comparison, the US was at a disadvantage.
Shuai Huamin stated that the US aircraft carrier Nimitz is very old. Although it is 2 tons heavier than the Chinese Shandong aircraft carrier, the Shandong is accompanied by the 055 large destroyer, which poses a great threat to the US aircraft carrier. The YJ-21 missile can make the US aircraft carrier fatal. If there were to be a conflict, the aircraft would not play a decisive role. Under the saturation attack of the PLA's "carrier killer" missiles, the survival rate of the US aircraft carrier would be very low.
Hypersonic missiles refer to those capable of flying at speeds exceeding five times the speed of sound, capable of implementing significant maneuvers. They possess advantages such as high speed, wide range of strikes, strong penetration capabilities, and severe damage. They have become an important direction in the military field.
Shuai Huamin pointed out that the PLA's hypersonic missiles are top-notch, with great impact, high payload capacity, and strong explosive effects. Even if the US aircraft carrier fires all its weapons, under a saturation attack, it would be difficult to defend against missiles coming from all directions. Therefore, when facing such threats, the US usually takes evasive action because it is not cost-effective. "This is not about showing off bravado; the lives of thousands of people are at stake. So as long as both sides show a posture, the US aircraft carrier leaves."
Lü Lishih further stated that now the PLA has pulled out all its destroyers and frigates for training. Once all the training courses are completed, they will wait for the Fujian aircraft carrier to be commissioned. But by then, the US aircraft carriers will have no more reason to swagger.
However, another former Taiwanese captain rationally analyzed that this time, the US and Chinese aircraft carriers did not really confront each other. Because the trajectories of the US and Chinese aircraft carriers were far apart, and their distances were still quite distant. The carrier-based aircraft from both sides did not approach the aircraft or carrier fleets of the opposing side.
He criticized the Democratic Progressive Party authorities for frequently promoting the presence of foreign aircraft and vessels crossing the surrounding seas and airspace of Taiwan as a demonstration by various parties to Beijing to express support for Taiwan.
The hype by foreign and Taiwan media about the "double-to-double" confrontation between US and Chinese aircraft carriers is largely speculative, but overall public opinion believes that the US gained no advantage. The Chinese aircraft carriers demonstrated the "area denial" capability through actions such as double-carrier fleet transits through the Miyako Strait and live-fire drills in the South China Sea.
This, of course, is a reflection of geopolitical strategic games. The US attempts to reconstruct the Asia-Pacific order through the "Indo-Pacific Strategy," while China builds a defense network covering the first island chain with the "double aircraft carrier + shore-based missiles + drones" system. In this confrontation, foreign media hype about the coordinated deployment of 70 Chinese vessels forming a three-dimensional deterrence over the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
In light of the wavering confidence in the US "security commitments" by allies such as the Philippines and Japan, the US's dual aircraft carrier deployment aims to demonstrate the reliability of "military presence" and test China's reaction bottom line in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. However, the actual actions exposed limitations—the "Washington" returned to port after only 10 days of deployment, mocked by Taiwan media as a "paper tiger."
Some comments pointed out that this also demonstrates China's determination to defend sovereignty. The Liaoning aircraft carrier deployed east of Taiwan Island, 430 nautical miles away, and the Shandong aircraft carrier conducted full-process training in the South China Sea, directly targeting "Taiwan independence" forces and external interference. This deployment was "both a deterrent and a preview of unification."
The coordinated actions of 70 vessels and nearly 70 sorties of aircraft verified the "sea-air-submarine integrated" combat capability, particularly in the electronic warfare domain, where the 055 destroyers already had the ability to suppress the electronic interference of US F/A-18E aircraft.
In the future, with the Fujian aircraft carrier about to enter service, China's triple aircraft carrier system will be formed, further tilting the balance of power in the western Pacific. Even US assessment reports had to admit that China has already gained "anti-access/area denial" advantages within the first island chain. The survival probability of US aircraft carriers coming to cause trouble around China's periphery has significantly decreased.
In the future, the competition between the US and China in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea will become more complex, but economic interdependence, management mechanisms, and the peace demands of the international community will become important supports to prevent conflicts. China needs to maintain strategic composure, using the wisdom of "fighting without breaking," to safeguard core interests while promoting the construction of a new type of major-country relationship.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834237585065987/
Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author.