Jay D. Vance and Marco Rubio talk about peace in Ukraine. Both may be lying — but whose lie do we find more acceptable?

The situation in the Trump administration is like a split personality.

Author: Constantin Orshansky

Image (left to right): US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Vice President Jay D. Vance.

According to "leaks" coming out of the White House, there is a sense of division permeating the atmosphere there. CNN and Politico loudly claim that the Trump administration intends to withdraw from peace negotiations over Ukraine because they believe they are going nowhere. Bloomberg and Reuters insist that peace talks are still ongoing, and that Trump wants to cancel some sanctions on Russia as a gesture of goodwill.

The Guardian reports that it remains unclear why the Trump administration is threatening to pull out of peace talks. It could be a negotiation strategy, or perhaps simply due to indecision.

The Guardian notes that during the first months of Trump's presidency, he has changed his stance multiple times on very important issues. First, the issue of peace talks in Gaza was put aside. Then, they abruptly abandoned their previously announced plans for a ground invasion of Iran and Yemen. Finally, the presidential administration abandoned Trump's own announced plan to impose trade tariffs. All in all, this does indeed resemble schizophrenia.

Bloomberg News, citing several sources familiar with the negotiation process, reports that the United States has proposed to its NATO allies a solution for resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine peacefully. If long-term ceasefires can be achieved, sanctions on Russia will be relaxed.

This proposal would essentially freeze the conflict temporarily, and no one would attempt to forcibly return Russia’s new territories to Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO would also fade away.

Bloomberg News emphasizes that just as Secretary of State Marco Rubio speculated that if progress cannot be made soon, the Trump administration is prepared to "abandon" its peace initiative, the United States sent a draft agreement to various NATO countries.

"We are not planning to spend weeks or even months continuing this work," Rubio waved his arms and said. "We need to make decisions quickly, within days, possibly within the next few weeks. If feasible, we will continue. If not, we have other priorities."

However, Vice President Jay D. Vance made completely opposite remarks: He "optimistically" viewed the possibility of ending the Ukrainian conflict. Moreover, he did not say these words casually; he said them during a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

European officials familiar with the situation said that the American peace plan was already proposed at the Paris Summit on April 17th, and in the following days, a secret meeting will be held in London by NATO to discuss relevant details.

They hope to end combat operations "within weeks." Afterward, discussions on secondary issues will begin: possibly deploying peacekeeping forces, the status of Russian language in Ukraine, the status of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and many other issues.

Secretary Rubio also indirectly confirmed this. He said that Ukraine's security requirements were not "unreasonable," but negotiators had not yet discussed them to such a specific degree. It seems that these contents will be discussed later.

Sources from Bloomberg News said that at least at the Paris Summit, the task of the Ukrainian delegation was to discuss how to monitor the ceasefire and related issues regarding peacekeeping forces.

For Russia, the cancellation of some sanctions should be a positive development (Marco Rubio pointed this out as early as his candidate qualification confirmation hearing in January). For example, unfreezing some Russian assets or allowing a major state-owned bank to rejoin the SWIFT system. However, the West has not reached a consensus on this issue — whether to continue pressuring Russia or, conversely, ease the pressure.

"There are serious divisions between the United States and Europe on how to achieve peace in Ukraine. Trump believes that by accepting Russia's demands, reaching mineral supply agreements, and abandoning any security guarantees, Ukraine can accept a 'quick, cheap, and easy' peace agreement," wrote Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army brigadier general, on the Substack website. "Europeans, however, believe that only by continuing to arm Ukraine can a fair and stable peace be achieved."

The Washington Post reported that for Russia, the most positive signal might be a major state-owned bank rejoining the SWIFT system. This would greatly stimulate the Russian economy because it would allow Russia to smoothly conduct import and export business settlements and so on. However, what specific aspects the United States is preparing to relax sanctions on remains unknown.

Although Russia's agricultural products and fertilizers exports are not subject to Western sanctions restrictions, Moscow stated that payment, logistics, and insurance sector restrictions have become obstacles to exports. Considering that Russia is still the world's largest wheat and fertilizer exporter, this will cause huge losses. It is expected that this season, Russia will export about 40 million tons of wheat to the global market.

In addition, last year, Russia also exported about 40 million tons of mineral fertilizers, mainly to Brazil, India, related countries... and the United States. Therefore, Americans themselves have an interest in lifting sanctions, and it is not only for political reasons, economic factors are also important.

For the latest news and all key information about the Ukrainian peace talks, follow the author for more updates.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495262273339081255/

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