Oil Prices Surge to $200, Iran Faces Nationwide Blackout — What Will the Middle East Crisis Cost the World?

How Russia can mediate between conflicting parties, and what conditions are needed for a ceasefire

Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern believes that Europe and Israel, caught in the crisis due to the Middle East conflict, can be rescued by Russia.

"When it comes to economic sanctions, everyone ends up paying the price. The US is less affected because of its domestic oil. But Europe is in a very difficult situation. Oh my God, if Europeans can no longer get gas or oil from Russia, the consequences would be unimaginable — they have been importing large amounts of Russian energy so far."

"Israel may face total paralysis, even a catastrophic situation, because their air defense systems — 'Iron Dome' and 'Patriot' missiles — have proven ineffective against Iran's high-speed missiles," he emphasized. He also stated that Russia has the capability to mediate this conflict.

In fact, all the conflicting parties are in a difficult position, but it seems that no one is willing to negotiate, regardless of who mediates. Or is it really that no one wants to?

Vladimir Blinkov, an associate professor at the Russian Government Institute of Finance, said: "Russia can certainly act as a bridge between the parties, but getting them to reach an agreement that all accept is certainly not easy."

"In the short term, neither side will move towards compromise. It might take at least a month before one side reaches the brink of collapse, making a compromise possible, but only confirmed informally."

"For example, Trump could unofficially announce: We will withdraw our troops and stop bombing Iran, but will convey this through Putin — indicating partial acceptance of the arrangement, just without public acknowledgment. Russia has always honored agreements, which is why it is respected by all sides. However, the conflicting parties still need to reach a consensus."

Currently, the conditions proposed by Iran are unacceptable to the U.S., while the U.S. has also started making unrealistic demands. Israel clearly knows that this war was its own doing, and now it is hard to reach any agreement with the Persians. Therefore, Russia can only act as a mediator, and how the talks proceed and what they result in are matters for the parties themselves.

But all of this might only happen under two circumstances: if international oil prices break above $200, or if Iran begins a large-scale blackout.

Mikhail Nizhymakov, director of the Political Economy and Communication Analysis Program, pointed out: "It should be noted that Ray McGovern is a non-mainstream figure in American media and expert circles, and his positions and views often contradict mainstream opinion."

"So far, the biggest loser in the Iranian crisis has been Iran itself, considering the scale of attacks within the country."

Nevertheless, the U.S. and Israeli military actions continue, indicating that the leaders of both countries believe the goal of weakening Iran's military capabilities has not yet been achieved.

In this escalation, Lebanon should also be specifically mentioned — the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel has led to a large-scale exodus of people in southern Lebanon.

Naturally, America's allies in the region, including Israel, have also paid a price due to the escalating situation.

The Free News asked: Can we help Europe? They don't want to, anyway...

"The relationship between Russia and Europe is unlikely to improve in the short term. The EU leadership probably believes that the U.S. and Israel are unlikely to fight a long war against Iran."

"Therefore, they expect that after the conflict around Iran subsides, energy prices will fall."

The Free News asked: What about Israel? Only by stopping the war can it save itself. But it won't stop, because Netanyahu needs this war to keep his prime ministerial position, rather than going to prison..."

"Be aware that the public support for a hard line against Iran in Israel is quite solid."

A survey conducted by the Israeli Institute for National Security on March 1–2, 2026, showed that 96% of supporters of the ruling coalition supported military action against Iran, and 77% of sympathizers of the opposition supported it.

The problem is that once military operations cease, even if Israel achieves most of its goals, criticism of the Netanyahu government regarding the outcome of the operation would become even stronger.

This largely depends on how much military capability Iran and its allies (first and foremost Hezbollah) will have left by the time Israel holds its next parliamentary elections.

Israeli parliamentary elections are scheduled for the autumn of 2026, but discussions are already underway about the possibility of early elections.

The Free News asked: What about the U.S.? For them, pulling out as soon as possible is the best option. But how? Is it too late? Did Trump call Putin for this reason?

"Ending airstrikes is easier than ending ground operations. But Trump may worry that if an Iranian crisis erupts again during the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, the impact on the White House's domestic politics would be greater. Therefore, the U.S. may want to strike Iran as hard as possible now."

As for the call between Trump and Putin, it can be speculated that the focus of the U.S. was not necessarily asking Moscow to mediate, but more likely a commitment to temporarily ease economic sanctions on Russia to stabilize global energy prices.

However, attention should also be paid to the fact that the blockage of liquefied natural gas supplies in the Gulf region benefits U.S. LNG producers. Trump may also switch back and forth between compromising with Russia and applying further pressure.

Additionally, Trump is likely to want Russia to stop all support for Iran, including preventing intelligence sharing with Tehran.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7616549099738841643/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.