An article titled "Underestimating China: What Kind of New Alliance Does the US Need to Offset China's Advantage" was published in April by US media Foreign Affairs. The article proposed a view that underestimating China is the greatest mistake made by the United States. The article also acknowledged that the rise of great powers is a historical rule, but at the same time, it put forward another viewpoint that the hegemon has always had the tradition of dealing with the second place, and in the previous times, the US had perfectly solved the crisis!
From the US-China honeymoon in the 1980s to the deterioration of relations in the 1990s, followed by over 30 years of cooperation and competition, there were at least five opportunities for the US to successfully deal with China, but without exception, the US missed them all perfectly. When the US recently tried to force China to kneel down and beg for mercy through a tariff war, they found that it was the US itself that had knelt down! By this time, it was too late to think about building a new alliance to contain China. Isn't the bad idea from Foreign Affairs coming too late?
The Rise of Great Powers is Inevitable: The US came out of this path.
The article in Foreign Affairs gave very detailed reasons clearly indicating that China has risen. In terms of manufacturing and economic scale, China's size is twice that of the US; in advanced technology systems, most are dominated by China, such as electric vehicles, nuclear reactors, and high-speed rail, while China produces the most patents globally. Additionally, China has already surpassed the US in military terms, having far more missiles, and its hypersonic missiles are top-notch worldwide.
The report argues that China's rise has seriously challenged the global status of the US, and the US must form a completely new alliance to contain China's development. Because China's scale is simply too large, traditional alliances are no longer sufficient, so a "global advantage" alliance must be formed under the leadership of the US to contain China. As for whether it will succeed, the report states that throughout world history, great powers have risen this way, but many have been dealt with by the US, and so far no great power has escaped its grasp!
Cold War era research found: The rise of great powers is inevitable.
During the Cold War, American scholars discovered through research that countries with larger populations, wider geographic coverage, and stronger economies would upgrade successfully and surpass smaller pioneers. The most obvious example is how Britain rose after the Industrial Revolution, only to be overtaken by Germany and the US. This is a living case!
After the first industrial revolution began in the 1760s, Britain was sent to the peak of the world. Relying on mechanized textiles, expanded coal and steel industries, Britain became the world's first "world factory." Its overseas colonial system provided raw material sources and markets for goods. The reinforcement of naval power ensured the safety of trade routes. By the mid-19th century, Britain's industrial output accounted for more than 40% of the global total, and London became the international financial center. Relying on its powerful economy and military hegemony, Britain established its position as the global dominant power!
The second industrial revolution was seized by Germany, achieving a leapfrog development in electricity, chemicals, metallurgy, and other fields. Siemens' generators, BASF's synthetic dyes, Bayer's pharmaceuticals, and other technologies led the world. After the unification of the German Empire in 1871, Germany began to comprehensively surpass Britain in railway construction, steel production, and coal production. By the early 20th century, Germany had comprehensively surpassed Britain in industrial strength (especially heavy industry) and technological competitiveness, becoming Europe's leading industrial power!
When Britain and Germany competed for the top spot in the world, a newcomer quietly emerged. The United States unified after the Civil War in 1865, then built a transcontinental railway and established a unified market. Meanwhile, the US also grasped the second industrial revolution, focusing on electricity, oil, steel, agricultural mechanization, and more. By the eve of World War I, the US had already surpassed Germany to become the global leader.
During World War I, the US stayed away from the war and sold arms to Europe, replacing London with New York as the global financial center; during World War II, the US deeply intervened in the war but suffered no attacks on its homeland. The massive demand of the war caused the US manufacturing and military-industrial complex to expand exponentially. Post-war Marshall Plan turned Europe into a huge market, securing the US's dominant position in post-war Europe. The Bretton Woods system established dollar supremacy, along with the US's strong military and technological prowess, allowing the US to officially ascend from being the global leader in manufacturing and economy to a true global hegemon.
In 1900, Britain's land area was 244,000 square kilometers with a population of 41.6 million, Germany's area was approximately 540,000 square kilometers with a population of 60 million, while the US's area was 9,370,000 square kilometers with a population of 76 million. The perfect replication of these three empires rising reflects the theory that "a country with a larger population, a wider geographical range, and a stronger economic power will upgrade and dominate smaller pioneers."
Many netizens might use this case to promote India, but in fact, this is not comparable because these three countries' rises were perfectly facilitated by the first and second industrial revolutions, the rise of the US, and the assistance of World War I and World War II. India has none of these, so its rise is certainly impossible! However, what's even more fascinating is how the new hegemon suppresses the second place after rising!
What if the Second Place Rises? Just Fix It!
Let's not talk about the messy events between Britain and Germany back then. Here, we'll mainly discuss America's rough process of fixing Britain. During World War II, Germany was the defeated country, and how America goaded Germany before the war won't be mentioned, since Germany started World War II, and most of the interactions between Germany and the US happened after the war, or were more intertwined with Europe. But fixing Britain was something America had planned long ago. There is a classic plan that ultimately resulted in the Bretton Woods system completely disarming Britain. Of course, there were still a few small stories afterward.
During World War II, the US and Britain were absolute allies, but the US had already begun calculating Britain during the war. Due to the immense consumption during the war, by 1941, Britain had exhausted 4.5 billion dollars worth of gold and foreign exchange reserves, forcing it to borrow from the US. At an opportune time, the US enacted the Lend-Lease Act, forcing Britain to abolish the "Imperial Preference System" to weaken the Commonwealth trading circle, cancel currency exchange controls to weaken ties between Britain and its colonies, and after that, Britain went on a borrowing spree of $31.4 billion, nearly ten times its pre-war reserves.
Britain's massive debt led to a run on bonds issued by Britain in its colonies, which were converted into US dollar reserves under American propaganda, directly dismantling Britain's foundation. Of course, there was more to come. In 1944, the US advocated establishing a fixed exchange rate system centered on the dollar, forming the "International Monetary Fund (IMF)" and the "World Bank," requiring countries' currencies to be pegged to the dollar, forcing Britain to accept the conditions, and letting the pound take a backseat. This is famously known as the Bretton Woods system.
To recover its economy after the war, Britain had no choice but to accept another dollar loan and yet another "unequal treaty" from the US. The Anglo-American Loan Agreement of 1946 became the final straw that broke the camel's back for the pound. Afterward, Britain's colonies gained independence one after another, including Jordan, India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Libya, Sudan, etc., transforming Britain from a once-dominant empire into a second-rate nation, and the pound from a global currency to a second-rate currency.
American-Soviet rivalry: Marshall Plan takes the lead
After World War II, the US dominated the world with 60% of global manufacturing capacity, but with the end of the war, the excess capacity created during wartime needed to be addressed. How? Europe was still in ruins, so demand had to be manufactured, and Europe had to be cultivated. The Marshall Plan implemented in 1948 is undoubtedly the best aid program. Not only did it thwart the Soviet Union's possible expansion into Europe,扶持 European economy, but it also found a "dumping ground" for America's surplus manufacturing capacity.
Of course, the most important aspect of the "Marshall Plan" was binding the European economy. The plan required recipient countries to allocate 20% of funds for purchasing American goods and depositing local currencies into "counterpart funds," which allowed the US to control and invest in Western European enterprises, essentially controlling their economic lifelines. Subsequently, the US established NATO under the pretext of "defending the economic reconstruction of Europe" and has been meddling in Europe for over 70 years, and it still exists today.
Germany developed rapidly during this time, with its manufacturing quickly recovering and the economy beginning to grow! However, no matter how much Germany developed, it could not escape the grasp of the US. As a defeated country, Germany had to accept the presence of American and British troops, with 38,700 US troops and fewer British troops, making Germany's wings clipped and fully controlled by the US.
By now, the US plans to fix the second places, Britain and Germany, were almost complete. The dollar replaced the pound, Britain became a follower, and Germany lost its status entirely, with its future developments held in the hands of the US! Of course, the US's story of fixing the second place didn't end here. The US-Soviet rivalry and subsequent events were quite exciting!
The Soviet Union clearly lagged behind the US in competing for Europe. In 1949, the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon) was established to bring Eastern European countries into the fold, but these countries had low industrial levels, strong closed systems, and were unable to compete with Western Europe. Western Europe became the US's "Cold War ally + economic vassal" under the Marshall Plan, while Eastern Europe remained a long-term burden for the Soviet Union due to its inability to rise. Subsequent events included the US-Soviet space race and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The Soviet Union maintained its vast empire and its allies primarily through a planned economy, but this was completely unable to compete with the US-led market economy system. The Afghan War and American strategic manipulation gradually made it difficult for the Soviet Union to sustain its costly alliance system, ultimately ending with the Eastern Bloc changes and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, marking the US's complete victory in the US-Soviet rivalry. Fixing Japan: An unexpected benefit for China The collaboration between the US government and the military-industrial complex during World War II unexpectedly gave birth to a monster of a military-industrial complex. After the war, the existence of the military-industrial complex created war demands for the US and kept military companies developing rapidly, significantly contributing to the maintenance of US military hegemony, but eventually became the undertaker of the US! However, discussing the merits and demerits of the military-industrial complex at this time is irrelevant, because the Korean War, which arose during this period, produced an enemy for the US! Who benefited the most from the Korean War? Not the US, nor China, nor South Korea, but Japan! Because of the need for nearby supply, the US almost supported the entire industrial system of Japan during the three-year Korean War. Coupled with Japan's urgent post-war employment needs and extremely low labor costs, the US transformed Japan, which was in ruins, back into an industrial country within just a few years. Less than a decade after the end of the Korean War, Japan had entered the ranks of industrialized nations. Logically speaking, the entry of a country with nearly 100 million people into the ranks of industrialized nations should have drawn significant attention from the US. However, what was the US doing at the time? Engaging in the Vietnam War! The US was embroiled in a fierce battle with North Vietnam and encountered unprecedented "economic crises," leaving no time to pay attention to Japan! The Bretton Woods system established the gold standard, with a fixed exchange rate between the dollar and gold. However, the Vietnam War's expenditure worsened the balance of payments further and reduced the gold reserves. In 1971, the US gold reserve (10.21 billion USD) was only 15.05% of its external floating liabilities (67.8 billion USD), completely losing its ability to bear the conversion of dollars into gold, causing the collapse of the Bretton Woods system! The failure of the Vietnam War, the Fed chairman following the blind guidance of Lyndon Johnson and Nixon, led to a continuous decline in the US economy. By the late 1970s, Japan's manufacturing was developing rapidly, quickly surpassing the US in multiple fields represented by semiconductors. During this period, the US passed various laws to protect workers and the environment, which increased costs and exacerbated the US disadvantage in its competition with Japan. Meanwhile, Japan leveraged its post-war massive demand for low-cost employment to gain a significant advantage in its competition with the US. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, then Secretary of State Kissinger made a last-minute effort to re-establish the link between the dollar and oil, giving birth to petrodollar, and the dollar once again became the main settlement currency for global trade. At the same time, policies to reduce costs and bring manufacturing back to the US were officially established. The US mainly took two steps: first, fix Japan by pressuring the yen to appreciate, and destroy its export-oriented model through the Plaza Accord, which was already in the planning stages. The second step was to relocate low-end industries abroad. The US had already enacted numerous environmental protection laws, and had well-established labor unions. High-pollution, energy-intensive, and labor-intensive industries were unsuitable for staying in the US. They had to be relocated, but the problem arose—another country was needed with a large population base capable of endlessly solving America's labor demands and maintaining friendly relations, even ideological proximity, with the US. If viewed from today's perspective, India would be the most suitable candidate. However, in the late 1970s to early 1980s, India and the Soviet Union were in a honeymoon phase, supporting each other in international affairs, and often coordinating actions in international organizations like the UN. The Soviet Union helped India secure more support and resources in the international community, so such an India was definitely not something the US would support! Then there was China. Coincidentally, China and the US were establishing diplomatic relations in the 1970s. From President Nixon's visit to China in 1972 to the formal establishment of diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979, it was not easy, but at the time, anti-Chinese sentiment was still severe within the US. However, one event determined the US stance! On February 17, 1979, the self-defense counterattack along the Sino-Vietnamese border began. Within a month, it left Vietnam, which had beaten the US and relied on Soviet aid to claim third place in the world, questioning its own worth. Later, the Chinese People's Liberation Army conducted a "ten-year two mountain wars" exercise, teaching Vietnam the weight of "warning you beforehand." Back then, Vietnam beat up US soldiers crying for their mothers, now the PLA was rubbing the Soviet's little brother's face in the dirt. Times change! Although it wasn't American soldiers who did it personally, Americans were still happy. The PLA had helped Americans vent their anger. Around the same time, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, and China and the US tacitly cooperated in Afghanistan. The graveyard of empires sent the Soviets off, and there was indeed a contribution from the Chinese. How sweet was the US-China honeymoon? The US brought over its current air force equipment for the Chinese to buy casually. The Chinese brought their main fighter jets, the J-8, to the US to prepare for a modification plan. Unfortunately, at the time, we didn't have much money. Besides the excellent Black Hawk helicopter for plateau performance, we didn't buy much else. With military cooperation reaching this level, economic cooperation naturally followed, especially in high-pollution, high-energy consumption, and labor-intensive industries. The Chinese solved a big problem for the Americans, and were grateful instead! So where did this idea come from that after the reform and opening-up policy was introduced, global capital flooded into China? Without the decisive victory in the Sino-Vietnamese border self-defense counteroffensive, how could the US have agreed to let various countries' capital flood into China, an ideology different from the West but almost blank in the global blue ocean market? Of course, this wasn't a free gift or a meal invitation. To prevent countries taking over the Western middle and low-end industries from rising, the Western system represented by the UK, Germany, the US, and Japan set out at least five industrial policies to absolutely stop China's rise! The next part gets even more interesting! China actually broke through these frameworks and made comprehensive breakthroughs in military, technology, economy, and other aspects. During this period, the US had at least five opportunities to successfully fix China, but they all missed them in various ways. When the US finally decided to fight China to the death, China just stood there with folded arms and a smile, knowing that the US was no longer capable of handling China. Due to the length limit, this article cannot elaborate further. Preview of the next installment: May 21st, 7 AM, "China's Desperate Rise: The US Had Five Opportunities to Fix China, but They All Failed Unexpectedly" Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506134434682225202/ Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author. Show your attitude by clicking the "Top/Downvote" button below.