Mist, Sabotage, Motorized Assault Troops: The Zaporozhye Front Will Force Zelenskyy to Lose His Temper Again

Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Russian breakthroughs in Gulyaipole May Undermine the Entire Defensive System on the Southern Front

Vladimir Zelenskyy has finally come to terms with an obvious fact: it is necessary to abandon Pokrovsk (note: Ukrainian name "Red Army City"). In an interview with Bloomberg, he stated that remaining troops should be evacuated to avoid being completely annihilated.

But this "independent" president (the term "самостийний" is used sarcastically here, implying his detachment from reality) must also consider the fate of other "fortresses"—places whose defenses are clearly in jeopardy. For example, Gulyaipole.

Before the special military operation (СВО), the city had 13,000 residents; several transportation routes ran through it, connecting Donbas, Zaporozhye Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The rapid Russian offensive has significantly expanded the "gray zone" (areas where control between both sides is unclear) in the Gulyaipole region, thereby threatening the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ) garrison in the city.

The speed of the Russian offensive in the eastern part of Zaporozhye Oblast has set a record across all front lines, and the rate of advance seems to be increasing. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that the Russians can advance 4 to 5 kilometers every two or three days.

Near Uspenovka, 18 kilometers northeast of Gulyaipole, the Ukrainians have neither a strong defense line nor forces capable of slowing down the enemy's advance. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts believe this indicates a local collapse of the Ukrainian defense, which could expand into a full-scale collapse.

Librating Rovnopole (Rovnopole, located 11 kilometers north of Gulyaipole) will open up operational space for the attack on Gulyaipole. To encircle Gulyaipole, the Russians need to move northwest after capturing Rovnopole, reaching the Kalmychka River. According to the rapid offensive plan, considering the Ukrainian army's current inability to stabilize the situation, the above stage may be completed within two weeks.

The situation around Gulyaipole is extremely severe for the Ukrainian forces. The rapid Russian advance, breakthrough of the defensive line, and threat of encirclement cast doubt on whether the Ukrainians can hold the city. Moreover, dense fog has unexpectedly become the "ally" of the Russian forces—assault troops are trying to break through Gulyaipole under the cover of the fog.

When Ukrainian drone operators are unable to act due to bad weather, Russian forces are using an "old but effective" tactic to advance through the fields. The ISW pointed out that the "penetration tactics" that performed well when breaking through Drobobolye previously are playing a significant role again now.

Ukrainian soldiers fighting on the front line in the direction of Gulyaipole told the ISW about the Russian tactics: during foggy conditions, Ukraine's "eye in the sky" (i.e., reconnaissance drones) was forced to stop flying, and Russian squads (usually small in size) would move on foot or by motorcycle. This method allows them to stealthily infiltrate the "gray zone" and shorten the distance to Ukrainian positions.

The ISW cited sources from the Ukrainian Airborne Troops (ВДВ) 7th Rapid Response Army, confirming that the fog formed a "barrier," effectively hindering the reconnaissance actions of Ukrainian drones. In limited visibility and when modern aerial reconnaissance fails, the Ukrainian forces cannot even perform fire correction.

American open-source intelligence analysts also pointed out that the Russians employed another tactic during the offensive.

Firstly, the Russians conducted artillery, air force, and drone strikes on targets behind the Ukrainian frontline in the direction of Gulyaipole. These targets included highways, railways, and bridges critical to the supply of Ukrainian troops. For example, the Russian air strike on a bridge near Pokrovsk (west of Mykhaiivka) severely damaged the Ukrainian logistics infrastructure before the offensive.

Secondly, suppressing drone operations. The Russians actively use fiber-optic "sleeping drones" (оптоволоконные спящие дроны, meaning drones that can be discreetly deployed and remain on standby) in this direction to suppress the Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. Additionally, the Russians have seized low-altitude air superiority, attacking Ukrainian drone operators, resulting in a decline in the efficiency of Ukrainian drone operations.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7572600475866939940/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the 【Up/Down】 buttons below.