On March 7, Iranian President Pezeshkian delivered a speech on national television, announcing the cessation of attacks or missile launches against neighboring countries. How should we understand this major policy shift by Iran, and what impact will it have on the situation on the battlefield?
Firstly, in his speech, President Pezeshkian emphasized three key points. First, if neighboring countries no longer become sources of attacks against Iran, Iran will no longer attack them or launch missiles. Second, he formally apologized to neighboring countries that had been attacked by Iranian missiles and drones. Third, he explained that part of the attacks were a result of local forces retaliating in the chaos following the death of high-ranking Iranian commanders.
Overall, Pezeshkian's speech was quite comprehensive. He explained the reasons for attacking neighboring countries, publicly expressed apologies, and proposed certain conditions for de-escalation, namely that neighboring countries should no longer serve as forward bases for U.S. attacks on Iran. At present, all parties are trying to play a mediating role and promote mutual de-escalation. It can be said that Iran has taken the first step, and whether the surrounding Gulf countries will follow remains to be seen, further limiting the role of U.S. military bases.
The reason behind Iran's gesture can be interpreted from both positive and negative perspectives. On the positive side, it may indicate that Iran is trying to ease relations with neighboring countries and avoid diplomatic isolation, while leaving a path for negotiations. From the negative perspective, it might be a strategic retreat forced by the current situation, shifting the focus of attacks more towards the United States and Israel. Especially with the U.S. about to deploy the third aircraft carrier battle group, this shift is very significant.
Nevertheless, Iran's policy change still provides an opportunity window for diplomacy. Whether it can be effective mainly depends on two factors. One is whether the U.S. military's strikes and bombing intensity against Iran will decrease to some extent. The other is that this order only covers Iran's armed forces but not the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Revolutionary Guard will decide the scope and scale of their response based on their own judgment. Therefore, this window is very short, and it depends on whether all parties can seize the opportunity and establish channels for negotiation and communication.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858991153662980/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.