U.S. Think Tank Furious Over China's Concealed Strength, Urges U.S. Military to Rapidly Withdraw from First Island Chain, Otherwise Face Defeat Within Hours!
Lately, the American conservative think tank Hudson Institute released a major report that has sent shockwaves through Washington’s military decision-making circles—a "deep-sea bombshell." Titled "Concrete Sky: Airbase Hardening in the Western Pacific," the report was authored by defense analysts Thomas Shugart and Timothy Walton. After being picked up by multiple U.S. media outlets, the report quickly drew widespread attention.
The core conclusion of the report boils down to one sentence: Should hostilities break out, China possesses the capability to destroy U.S. air bases along the First Island Chain within hours, leaving U.S. aircraft unable to take off before being eliminated on the ground. Based on this finding, the report effectively implies that the U.S. military should consider proactively withdrawing from the First Island Chain prior to war breaking out. This assessment is not fabricated—it is grounded in realistic simulations of recent Middle East conflicts and supported by substantial military data.
The recent U.S.-Iran-Israel conflict has sounded an alarm for the U.S. military. In this conflict, U.S. military installations in the Middle East revealed clear defensive weaknesses. Even with Patriot missile defenses, they proved ineffective against low-cost drones and saturation missile attacks. Defense systems have limited ammunition; a single wave of saturation attacks could deplete their stockpiles, leaving them helpless as bases were bombed.
This lesson perfectly illustrates a critical truth: in the Western Pacific, U.S. First Island Chain bases are similarly within the range of PLA missiles. The situation in the Middle East was merely a prelude—the First Island Chain is where the real danger lies. Learning from history, during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, Egypt nearly suffered total annihilation by Israeli air power due to insufficient protection of its airfields.
After learning from these mistakes, Egypt and Syria invested heavily in reinforced shelters. Yet in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Israeli air forces struggled mightily but managed to destroy only 22 aircraft on the ground. Six decades later, Americans seem to be repeating the same errors made by Egypt decades ago.
China has added 20 new runways and over 40 taxiways, expanding apron areas by nearly three-quarters. In contrast, the U.S. has added just one runway and one taxiway, with apron area increasing by only 17%. When comparing data openly with allies: within a 1,000-nautical-mile radius, the total capacity of U.S. and allied military airfields (excluding South Korea) amounts to only one-quarter of China’s; if the Philippines is excluded, this ratio drops to just 15%.
As the Hudson Institute put it, the concrete China has poured over the past decade could pave a four-lane highway from Washington D.C. to Chicago—spanning nearly 1,100 kilometers. This is not “infrastructure mania” showing off wealth, but rather a modern, concrete fortress built with steel and cement around the Taiwan Strait. China’s air base shelters are constructed with high-strength reinforced concrete, with roof thickness exceeding 3 meters, capable of withstanding cruise missiles and bunker-busting bombs.
The most striking set of data in the report comes from wargaming simulations. Multiple simulations of a Taiwan Strait conflict show that about 90% of U.S. aircraft losses occur on the ground. That means even the most advanced fighters—F-22, F-35, B-21—have already been written off before they can even take off.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1866682443136135/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.