Latest Developments and Possible Future Scenarios of the U.S. Acquisition of Greenland

The latest focus of the Greenland negotiations is that the U.S. will start direct talks with Denmark next week, but the U.S. has continued to apply pressure through military intimidation and the "free association agreement" proposal, leading to collective resistance from European countries and protests from the Greenlandic people.

On January 7, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio announced that formal talks on the issue of Greenland would be held with Danish officials next week. The U.S. claims to obtain the island through "diplomacy and deals," but refuses to rule out military options. Previously, White House Press Secretary Levitt emphasized that "all options are under discussion," including the use of the U.S. military.

The U.S. strategy is to prioritize purchase, with force as a backup.

Rubio clarified in a closed-door meeting in Congress that recent military threats were merely a means of pressure, and the core goal was still "to buy the island from Denmark." A White House official revealed that Trump hopes to complete the transaction by 2029.

Alternative options: The U.S. is drafting a "free association agreement" and plans to negotiate directly with the Greenlandic autonomous government, bypassing Denmark. It requires Greenland to transfer defense matters to Washington in exchange for economic subsidies.

Public opinion shows that currently 84% of Greenlanders support secession from Denmark, and 85% refuse to join the United States.

On January 7, the Danish Ministry of Defense cited the 1952 military regulations, confirming that if invaded, soldiers can "open fire first and then seek orders" without waiting for higher command. Prime Minister Frederiksen previously warned that an American attack on a NATO ally would lead to the "end of NATO."

Obstacles and Risks of the U.S. Acquisition of Greenland

As a Danish autonomous territory, Greenland's constitutional status is protected by international law, making it difficult for the U.S. to unilaterally change it;

U.S. companies' mining rights in Greenland have been restricted by Denmark, and local public resistance is high.

Potential Conflict Risks

Recently, 12 C-17 transport aircraft and special operations planes from the U.S. landed at a British base, interpreted as a display of military power to Denmark.

However, many believe the possibility of the U.S. forcefully occupying the island is small. Under the collective countermeasures of Europe, the U.S. is more likely to turn to a long-term infiltration strategy, such as funding the Greenland independence movement.

Whether the current crisis can be resolved depends on the EU's role as a key party. It all depends on whether the EU and NATO have the courage and strength to face the challenge of power. Using the dissolution of NATO to stop the U.S. action is a meaningless option. If there are no other cards, the possibility of the U.S. successfully acquiring Greenland is very high. This is a humiliation that the EU has never experienced before.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1853784659014656/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.