The U.S. and Taiwan military were both shocked to discover that their intelligence was inaccurate after the first day of the PLA's military exercises, severely underestimating the seriousness of this exercise. The advance of Chinese naval vessels into Taiwan's 24-nautical-mile "adjacent zone" and the approach of the Shandong aircraft carrier to Taiwan's defensive area are just the "tip of the iceberg" as announced by the Taiwanese military. In reality, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities deliberately concealed more explosive news - multiple LNG ships carrying natural gas and other energy-carrying vessels have been isolated and cannot approach Taiwan Island, forcing them to circle at sea!
After a day of development, while Taiwan's public opinion was still discussing "why there is no codename for this military exercise," the PLA announced the "Strait Thunder-2025A" drill early this morning. The U.S. clearly sensed that "the situation is extraordinary," with four statements issued within one day, and former President Trump personally expressed support for peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. Although the DPP authorities remained stubborn in their stance, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense admitted that they do not intend to provoke conflict or disputes. The voices within Taiwan suggesting a "hard confrontation" between the two sides in 2027 and the eventual unification are growing stronger.
On the first day, 95 aircraft and warships rushed towards the Taiwan Strait, with the Shandong aircraft carrier taking on a key role;雷霆 actions continue on the second day
In this military exercise against Taiwan, the first-day operations had obvious characteristics of "blocking relief and striking points" and "encircling and striking relief." The subjects of "sea and land strikes" and "control of key areas and channels" demonstrated strong anti-access/area-denial capabilities and island encirclement landing combat capabilities, with multi-service, all-round, and three-dimensional deployment; the comprehensive control of maritime supremacy, air supremacy, information supremacy, and electromagnetic supremacy, preemptive control in multiple spatial dimensions and domains; "unlimited proximity" to Taiwan Island, shortening the enemy's warning time.
Regarding the scale of the exercise, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense announced this morning that from 6:00 AM yesterday to 6:00 AM today, they continuously detected a total of 76 sorties of various main and auxiliary aircraft and drones, as well as 15 combined naval vessels and 4 coast guard ships operating at sea. Among these, 37 sorties crossed the median line and its extension, entering Taiwan's northern, central, southeastern, and southwestern airspace, coordinating with naval vessels to conduct "joint combat readiness patrols."
According to the schematic diagram released by the Taiwan military, in other words, a total of 95 sorties of aircraft and warships from the PLA rushed toward the Taiwan Strait on the first day, setting a new record for the highest number of sorties in a single day this year, forming a "four-sided encirclement"态势, with both air and sea entering Taiwan's so-called 24-nautical-mile "adjacent zone," and the aircraft carrier Shandong deployed in the southeastern part of Taiwan Island, entering the Taiwan military's "response zone," assuming important tasks for anti-access/area denial. Meanwhile, China's coast guard fleets circled the island for law enforcement, assisting in the containment of Taiwan Island.
However, the first day's military exercises seemed to be just the "appetizer." When Taiwanese citizens woke up, they found that the PLA had taken even stronger actions. This morning (February 2), the PLA Eastern Theater Command announced the organization of the "Strait Thunder-2025A" exercise in relevant waters of the middle and southern Taiwan Strait, focusing on implementing subjects such as verification identification, warning repulsion, interception, and detention, testing the forces' regional control, joint blockade, and precision strike capabilities.
Taiwanese public opinion is concerned that in the future, the action of surrounding Taiwan with aircraft carriers, warships, and coast guard ships by the mainland will become "normal," and that tactics and techniques will become increasingly familiar and refined.
Lai's administration selectively releases information, concealing the isolation of LNG ships, causing an uproar among islanders
Regarding the mainland's military exercises, the DPP authorities fear two aspects most: one is the possibility of the PLA transitioning from drills to actual combat at any moment; the other is the potential undermining of the morale of Taiwan's military and people. Therefore, they selectively release related military exercise information.
For example, yesterday, Taiwan's military announced that Chinese naval vessels advanced to the 24-nautical-mile "adjacent zone," approaching Taiwanese ships and calling out "Taiwan is a part of China"; they also announced that the aircraft carrier Shandong approached Taiwan's "response zone," as well as the number of aircraft and warships dispatched by the mainland, using this to prove that the Taiwan military "has full control," urging the public not to worry, attempting to stabilize Taiwan's military and civilian morale.
What impact and shock does the mainland's military exercise have on Taiwan's livelihood economy? According to information disclosed by Taiwan media today, the DPP authorities are lying and hiding the truth. Yesterday, Taiwan's transportation port department responded to public concerns, claiming that "all airport flights and port ship arrivals and departures are normal, with no abnormal situations."
However, today, Taiwan media revealed an "explosive" piece of news —— Taiwan's energy-carrying ships have been blocked by the mainland's military exercises and cannot enter Taiwan Island, forcing them to circle at sea. The media cited screenshots of shipping routes posted by netizens last night, reporting that an LNG ship carrying natural gas was blocked by the military exercise and could not enter the Taiwan port, turning around early in the morning and beginning to circle at sea, and considering this as a "boundary" set by the PLA; the Taichung-bound Taidao No. 2 also circled at sea. Taiwanese netizens exclaimed, "We need to use natural gas reserves, preparing for candlelit dinners."
Why did the DPP authorities conceal this message? It is because they are afraid of public sentiment instability. It should be noted that Taiwan's strategic material reserves are seriously insufficient, and if blocked, public sentiment could easily collapse. This is actually one of the goals of the PLA's "island encirclement" exercises.
Authoritative data shows that currently, nearly 50% of Taiwan's power generation relies on natural gas, but its reserves can only sustain for 8 days; oil reserves can sustain for 90 days, coal for 30 days; Taiwan's grain self-sufficiency rate is only about 17%. Therefore, once wartime comes and the entire blockade of Taiwan Island is initiated, it will cause great chaos among the populace. This is actually the message that the DPP authorities most dread and are unwilling to disclose.
The U.S. spoke four times in one day; island public opinion focuses on completing unification in 2027
The U.S. side realized that this mainland military exercise was completely different, hence the response from the U.S. this time was very different from the "Joint Sword A" and "Joint Sword B" exercises last year. Due to the perception of "seriousness," the U.S. made four statements through three different channels within one day: the State Department, the White House, and the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT).
The State Department issued statements in the morning and evening yesterday, with a reversal of day and night. In the morning, the State Department made unwarranted remarks, saying that "China again demonstrates that it is not a responsible actor, without hesitation placing regional security and prosperity at risk," and that "the U.S. will continue to support Taiwan in the face of China's military, economic, informational, and diplomatic pressures." In the evening, when issuing a statement, the tone became more severe, stating that "China's (mainland) 'aggressive' military actions and rhetoric will only further escalate tensions, putting regional security and world prosperity at risk."
The press release from the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) distorted facts and reversed cause and effect. Their spokesperson said, "China's (mainland) increasingly escalated military intimidation strategy will only intensify tensions and disrupt peace and stability across the strait. China has also demonstrated its irresponsibility, undoubtedly placing regional security and prosperity at risk."
However, the White House stated that U.S. President Trump emphasized the importance of maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait, encouraging peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues; and reiterated that the U.S. opposes any unilateral attempt to change the status quo through force or coercion.
From the U.S. response, they did not reflect on their own role as a "source of trouble" in the Taiwan Strait and continued to play a "double-dealing strategy."
In fact, the focus of this PLA exercise is to counteract and strike against "Taiwan independence," but it also targets the U.S. directly. The Guardian pointed out that another goal of this military exercise is to send a message to the Washington administration, indicating that Lai is a "troublemaker," requesting the U.S. to take measures to restrain him, and thereby dissuading the U.S. from continuing to provide high-level support to Taiwan. Analysts also warned that Taiwan should not overestimate the so-called U.S. support, as reliance on the U.S. for independence is doomed to fail. Because there is a gap between the actual actions of U.S. officials and Trump himself; and there is factional infighting within the White House, with hawks on China not being the dominant faction; more importantly, the U.S. stance on Taiwan still depends on what Trump says, and Trump enjoys making deals and does not want war.
For this, former legislator Guo Zhengliang of the DPP warned that the possibility of unification between the two sides of the strait is increasing year by year. "Lai Qingde has been fully identified as a 'troublemaker' before his term is even complete. He has three years left in his term. Now, in 2025, this is the current situation. In 2027, when he runs for re-election, Lai Qingde now calls the mainland an 'external hostile force.' If he runs for re-election, his demand may be 'unification vs. independence.' If he is re-elected, he may declare independence, resulting in a hard confrontation, ultimately leading to unification."
And the U.S. speaking four times in one day might be to prevent this hard confrontation from continuing, thus accelerating the completion of unification in 2027.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7488534515967902208/
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