According to the latest state-level population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau, Democrats may face a more unfavorable electoral college map in presidential elections after 2030. Researchers combined the 2025 population estimates with historical data to forecast the changes in the number of seats in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College for each state after the 2030 census. The results show that if current population migration trends continue, red states represented by Texas and Florida will significantly increase their electoral votes, while Democratic core states such as California may become the biggest losers. Although multiple early projections differ slightly in specific numbers, their conclusions are consistent: the structure of the electoral college is shifting in a direction more favorable to the Republican Party. Analysis suggests that in the future, Democrats will find it difficult to win by relying solely on swing states in the "Rust Belt." In presidential elections after 2030, Democrats may need to restructure their campaign strategies to deal with the long-term challenges brought about by structural changes in the electoral college.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1855630114555913/
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