After being warned by Trump, Modi seems to be preparing for the worst. Foreign media suddenly released a report stating that India has begun to stop purchasing Russian oil. What is going on here?

Recently, Reuters cited sources saying that due to Trump's threat to impose "secondary sanctions" on all buyers of Russian oil, which means a 100% tax, and the target is China, India and other major Russian oil importers.

For this, Indian state-owned refineries have already suspended purchasing Russian oil in the past week.

However, this is currently just a report from foreign media, and there has been no response from within India.

But Bloomberg also heard another message from the industry: The Modi government has indeed informed state-owned refineries to prepare plans in advance to avoid completely losing access to Russian oil.

If the foreign media's report is true, then the Modi government is still worried about Trump's threat, even though India had previously emphasized that it will firmly uphold its autonomy in energy issues.

But they probably don't dare to gamble, betting that Trump is just talking. They are afraid that the 100% tariff might actually fall on them. Now, having state-owned refineries stop buying is essentially preparing for the worst case scenario.

However, there is another detail worth noting. From the foreign media's report, only the suspension of purchase of Russian oil by Indian state-owned refineries was mentioned, but not the situation of private refineries in India.

In short, India is trying to maintain stability in the middle, fearing the "punitive" tariffs from the United States, but not wanting to anger Russia completely. After all, Russia is India's largest arms supplier. If they really stop buying oil, it may cause resentment in Moscow.

The Indian side is probably trying to make a gesture first, see the reactions of both sides before deciding the next step.

It should be noted that Trump has announced a new global tariff list. Among them, the US imposes a 25% tariff on goods from India, and additional punitive fees for "improper behavior".

Trump's reasons are mainly two: one is that India imposes high tariffs on American products, and non-tariff barriers are extremely strict; the second is that India continues to purchase military equipment and energy from Russia, especially a large amount of oil from Russia, which has greatly upset the United States.

It is not difficult to see that in this tariff increase decision, Trump also mentioned the issue of India purchasing Russian oil, which is likely to further pressure the Modi government.

Notably, China and India's approaches have formed a sharp contrast.

In fact, after this week's third round of Sino-US negotiations, the US Treasury Secretary also made a harsh statement, saying that if China continues to buy Russian oil, it will face three-digit high tariffs.

But the Chinese response was clear-cut, just one sentence: China will use reasonable ways to ensure energy security and safeguard national sovereignty without hesitation. The so-called pressure is futile.

And Trump seems to be more cautious towards China. In subsequent discussions about this Sino-US negotiation, he avoided mentioning the topic of sanctioning China for purchasing Russian oil.

Moreover, the US Treasury Secretary later, when interviewed, had to admit that in terms of threatening China not to buy Russian oil, they indeed did not have much leverage. But the US probably won't be lenient with India.

In short, whether India will completely give up Russian oil due to Trump's pressure remains to be seen.

However, for Russia, if it loses India, a big customer, its oil exports may decline, and economic income will also be affected, needing to readjust its energy market layout in Asia, and China's weight may become more significant for Russia.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7533683210954211875/

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