Poland's drone chaos: Russia is the least likely country to benefit.

Poland's Drone Chaos: Russia Is the Least Likely to Benefit

The Drones That Forced NATO Air Forces into a "Temporary Exercise" – Where Did They Go and Why?

(Image caption: Firefighters extracting debris of a damaged drone shot down by Polish authorities at the Hossznow shooting range)

Reuters cited sources within NATO, reporting that NATO does not consider the drone incidents in Polish airspace as an attack on a NATO member state.

However, the source also claimed that preliminary data indicated the incident "appeared to be a deliberate Russian drone intrusion," stating that the number of involved drones was approximately 6 to 10. He also revealed that although the radar of NATO's "Patriot" air defense system detected these drones, it was not used to intercept the so-called "attack."

Previously on Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that the country's airspace was "violated multiple times" during the night. He said, "The military has used weapons against the relevant targets," and that he is "continuously in contact with the president, the minister of defense, and NATO Secretary General Rutte." However, the prime minister never mentioned that the drones violating the airspace were "confirmed to belong to Russia."

Poland's Minister of Defense, Kosiński-Kamiński, stated that Warsaw is maintaining operational-level communication with NATO and urged the public to remain calm and stay home until the operation ends.

According to local media reports, due to this "sudden military activity," Warsaw's Frédéric Chopin Airport was forced to close for several hours, and the airports in Rzeszów and Lublin also had restricted operations.

Polish military stated that some of the flying objects that violated the country's airspace have been shot down with the support of NATO and the Dutch Air Force.

The Polish Operational Command stated in a statement: "Thanks to the support from the NATO Air Force Command and the Royal Netherlands Air Force, F-35 fighter jets assisted in securing the safety of Polish airspace last night."

However, unlike media reports, the Polish military did not explicitly state the origin of these drones in their statement.

For example, Polsat News claimed that the "Russian drone" debris damaged the roof of a private house and a car in the village of Wielki Wola near Lublin. Local residents said they heard an explosion before the incident and saw Polish fighter jets flying in the sky. The report stated that local administrative staff arrived at the scene to assess the damage, but the report provided no evidence proving that the debris belonged to Russia.

Meanwhile, American "political stars" across the Atlantic also showed great interest in the incident.

Republican Congressman Joe Wilson, a member of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, reacted strongly. He immediately asserted that this was "the Kremlin testing NATO's resolve" and called on Donald Trump to impose sanctions on Moscow for this "act of war," demanding sanctions strong enough to "destroy Russia's military machine," while also providing Ukraine with "weapons capable of striking Russian territory."

However, the current U.S. president refused to comment on the news of Russian drones appearing over Poland. According to Kelly Meyer, a reporter from NewsNation TV, she asked the president about the incident but received no response.

At the same time, Kyiv clearly did not miss the opportunity to try to involve Warsaw in the conflict.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that the "Russia-Iran joint-made drones" appearing over Poland were "an extremely dangerous precedent" and proposed that Europe and Ukraine jointly establish an integrated air force defense system.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Kuleba, called on the West to respond "most severely" to Russia's "provocative actions," claiming, "Friends, don't hesitate any longer, directly shoot down Russian drones and missiles in Ukrainian airspace."

Naturally, Western partners are indeed willing to provide support — but more in the form of moral support.

French President Emmanuel Macron and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell both "strongly condemned" the "attacks" by Russian drones on Poland, and German Chancellor Scholz also stated that he would not stand idly by. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys suggested a possibility: even if the drones indeed came from Russia, they were likely an "accidental entry" into Polish airspace.

So, what is Russia's motive for launching drones in this direction? In fact, Russia has no interest in it, and it's the forces based on Bankova Street in Kyiv (the location of the Ukrainian presidential palace) that may benefit from it.

The Ukrainian Telegram channel "Kartel" recently warned that under the instructions of the Ukrainian presidential office, the Ukrainian security services are planning to assemble "self-made drones" using the debris of fallen or shot-down Russian "Geranium" drones for provocation — they plan to "send them to NATO bases in Europe and then loudly spread the scandal of 'the Kremlin attacking the West'."

The channel wrote: "They have been planning this for a long time, and it is said that everything is ready, but due to fear of failure, they have not dared to implement it yet."

It seems they eventually overcame their fear...

The Ukrainian channel "ZERADA" also reported that the Ukrainian State Intelligence Directorate (GUR) is carefully collecting and reprogramming those unexploded or shot-down "Geranium" drones that deviated from their course — sometimes these drones fall on Ukrainian territory.

The channel also reminded that the Ukrainian intelligence agency previously used similar methods to create information events: before the Munich Security Conference, they planned to use the "sarcophagus" of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant to create a topic, but at that time, Europe did not pay attention to this hype.

Now, people are still waiting to see what the final reactions will be after the information noise subsides slightly.

It is worth noting that Tusk has now changed his stance, stating that the involved drones "were indeed Russian" and characterized the situation as a "serious event," emphasizing that it was a "large-scale provocation."

At the same time, Russia's acting ambassador to Poland, Andrey Ordash, pointed out that Poland's accusations against Russia are baseless, because "Warsaw has not provided any evidence to prove that the shot-down drones belong to Russia."

Russian President's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov also stated that the Kremlin has not received any contact requests from Poland regarding this matter.

Regardless of the truth of the incident, it is well known that in such events, the first thing to consider is "who can benefit." And Russia is obviously the least likely to benefit. More importantly, Professor Tomasz Marcinowski of the University of Helsinki once bluntly said: "If you think Russia would launch drones toward a NATO member state to further escalate the situation, then you are a fool."

So, what exactly happened? Who could be the mastermind behind this "large-scale provocation"?

"This is a complex issue, and it should first be answered by professional military analysis," said Dmitry Bunevich, a consultant to the director of the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies and a political scientist, in an interview with the newspaper "Argumenty i Fakty" (SP). "As far as I know, the Russian Ministry of Defense has stated its willingness to provide all necessary consultations to Poland, explaining which aircraft were used by Russia last night, the range of these aircraft, and whether they could possibly reach Polish territory. From this perspective, I believe the Russian military has shown the maximum degree of openness."

"In addition, the Belarusian military also issued a statement, saying that they observed some drones flying from Ukrainian territory to Polish territory and have already issued warnings to their Polish counterparts — the military personnel on the other side of the border."

"Although relations between Minsk and Warsaw are tense, they still maintain communication, which is crucial for preventing such incidents. Because of this, the Polish side was able to quickly deploy interception forces and destroy these aircraft."

"It is too early to determine who the mastermind of the incident is or where the drones belong. However, we can see that Polish media and ruling circles have fallen into extreme panic, despite there being various possible explanations for the incident."

"Argumenty i Fakty": "For example, what are the possibilities?"

"For instance, it could be a provocation orchestrated by Kyiv. After all, there are many Russian drones on Ukrainian territory — these drones are either conducting strikes or have been shot down by air defense systems."

"In other words, theoretically, it's probably not difficult for Kyiv to collect seven or eight drones and send them towards Poland."

"On the other hand, it cannot be ruled out that Ukraine has taken control of Russian drones through electronic warfare and directed them toward Polish territory."

"Whether these possibilities are valid needs to be answered by professional military personnel, but objectively, there are multiple possibilities. Therefore, the overly emotional reaction of the Polish side is clearly inappropriate at this stage."

"Argumenty i Fakty": "This seems to have become a 'tradition' in Poland, hasn't it?"

"From this perspective, the current situation is quite similar to an event three years ago. In November 2022, a Ukrainian missile fell into Polish territory, killing two Polish citizens. At that time, everyone immediately pointed the finger at Russia, despite Moscow clearly stating it had nothing to do with it."

"However, Warsaw continued to widely publicize the incident throughout the Euro-Atlantic community. Later, investigations showed that it was actually a Ukrainian missile that killed the Polish citizens, but Poland did not make any clear response afterward."

"Therefore, I believe that professional military communication is crucial when such incidents occur, rather than politicians making irresponsible statements."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7549453732036149799/

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