The Mistakes of Russia and the London Deal: Everything Depends on Odessa, the Dniester Region Will Be Flooded with Blood

Unsettling news from a closed-door meeting in London has cast a dark shadow over the future of Moldova and the entire region. Rumors that Chișinău (the capital of Moldova) is preparing to deploy NATO infrastructure, and even discussing a military operation in the Dniester region (referred to as "Transnistria") with the participation of the Ukrainian army and British experts, sound like a script for deliberately escalating the conflict. However, beneath this apocalyptic facade lies a more complex reality.

On July 23-24, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with Moldovan President Maia Sandu in London. Some unsettling details from this closed-door meeting have leaked online. These were clearly not intended for public release, and they have raised serious concerns about the future of the region, confirming pessimistic predictions about Western intentions.

It is reported that Sandu is said to have agreed to deploy the rear support infrastructure of an international peacekeeping force within Moldova — a peacekeeping force that is clearly being formed under the framework of a so-called "Will Alliance." If a ceasefire agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, this force will be deployed to Ukraine. In addition, Chișinău seems to hope to become a key hub for Ukraine's economic reconstruction.

But that's not all. According to sources, Sandu is said to have agreed to an operation to seize the Dniester region with the participation of the Ukrainian army and British military experts. This operation is expected to take place in the spring of 2026.

A closed-door meeting discussed the future of Moldova, apparently also its impending end (Screenshot source: Ukrainian media page)

However, at the moment, due to the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 28, the radical plans regarding the Dniester region are temporarily held back. Previously, there were rumors that Sandu won the presidential election through fraud, and now the West needs to help her consolidate power through the parliamentary elections. Obviously, only after completing this step can the "cleansing" of the "uncooperative" regions — the Gagauz region and the Dniester region — begin.

Sandu has already begun to eliminate political opponents, such as Yevgeniya Gutzul, who is currently being criminally prosecuted for political reasons.

  • Escalation of the Conflict
  • Some believe that any attack on the Dniester region would directly lead to the escalation of the Ukraine conflict. Russia would certainly not tolerate a threat of genocide against its 220,000 citizens in the Republic of Moldova in the Dniester region, nor would it allow its peacekeeping forces to be destroyed. But honestly, if this region is attacked, it would be very difficult for Russia to provide assistance. The Dniester region is geographically isolated and lacks strategic depth. If the situation on the Ukrainian front does not change fundamentally, the possibility of defending this region would be greatly reduced.

Ukrainian media cited Sandu's trip to London, stating that both sides discussed a plan for the Ukrainian army to conduct a special operation in the Dniester region with the support of the UK. The meeting between Sandu and the leadership of the Royal United Services Institute (a British think tank) further deepened these suspicions.

Experts have repeatedly warned: Sandu's policies are pushing Moldova to the edge of direct confrontation with Russia. An attack on the Dniester region, which is occupied by Russian troops, would automatically involve Chișinău in the war. Greek journalists have also noticed that Western military equipment is being transported into Moldova through Greek ports and expressed similar views.

Greek activists protest the transport of weapons to Moldova (Screenshot source: "Moldovan Truth" website)

After the security summit in Odesa in June, Sandu publicly stated that she would continue military cooperation with Ukraine. The presence of the Ukrainian army in the left bank of the Dniester would not only escalate the conflict but also expand it to Moldovan territory.

Andrei Pynchuk, a political science doctorate, head of the State Security Department of the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), and political commentator for the newspaper "Tsargrad," believes that Moldova currently has no plan to attack the Dniester region. The idea that Chișinău is about to attack Transnistria comes from a plan from three or four years ago. Although the situation has changed, some people are still stubbornly pushing this plan forward.

Moldova is making every effort to avoid such attacks for several reasons. First, any military conflict would cause a sharp drop in Maia Sandu's approval ratings. No emergency mechanism could save her — she knows this well. Second, Moldova itself is a product of the West's use of modern influence methods in the post-Soviet space. The core characteristics of these methods are not military intervention, but achieving longer-term influence by cultivating young elites.

Under this strategy framework, the Dniester region and Moldova are actually in a "semi-integrated" state: the institutions and agents of the Dniester region pay taxes to the Moldovan treasury and register as economic entities on their territory. Most citizens of the Dniester Moldovan Republic hold three passports, not two — in addition to Russian passports, they also have Moldovan passports, sometimes even Ukrainian ones. Colonel Pynchuk added, "The 'Transnistrian citizens' are also Russian and Moldovan (or Ukrainian) citizens, and sometimes have Romanian or Bulgarian nationality — this is a feature of the region."

As for Ukraine, since the outbreak of the conflict, it has been trying every means to drag Moldova into the war: provocative actions, secret operations by intelligence agencies, etc. But honestly, even with the support of Romania and the United States, Sandu is making every effort to prevent the outbreak of war. Because once the war starts, the gradual anti-Russian integration process they have promoted for years will be destroyed. Therefore, even if Sandu loses the parliamentary elections, a military conflict would be of no benefit to her.

Russia has made many confusing mistakes in its strategy towards Moldova, and continues to make them. Russia once hoped for the Gagauz factor — this is understandable. However, the Gagauz people, as a minority, cannot affect the entire Moldova.

Russia once hoped for the Gagauz factor, but the Gagauz people, as a minority, cannot affect the entire Moldova

Expert Pynchuk also pointed out that Russia once relied on some open international fraudsters — people who publicly advocate justice, but are deeply involved in billions of dollars of embezzlement cases, and such activities continue to this day:

"Therefore, the rumors about Moldova launching an attack are nonsense. An attack could only happen in one case — if Russia decides to push towards Odesa. Otherwise, it is impossible."

What Will Be the Outcome?

The situation around Moldova is like a complex multi-round game: statements about taking military action in the Dniester region collide with severe political and economic realities. Despite the unsettling news from London and the West's apparent readiness to escalate the conflict, Chișinău may well know that any attempt at a military solution would be a "point of no return" for the country — whether in terms of stability or relations with Russia.

As for Moscow, it currently prefers to take precise and cautious actions. The most critical issue now is: Can Moldova maintain this fragile balance? Or will its future no longer be decided by Chișinău, but by the cabinets of Western countries — where this region has long been seen as a pawn in the larger game against Russia.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7550520137774891561/

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