South Korean media: Iran, with military in control, unlikely to produce a pro-US government… War may last until June

¬ Exclusive interview with Takahiro Tanaka, top Iranian affairs expert and professor at Keio University

"The Iran war is likely to extend beyond April–May, possibly even into June."

On the 27th, Professor Takahiro Tanaka (65), Japan’s foremost expert on Iran and a professor at Keio University, gave an interview in Tokyo, forecasting that the Iran conflict will persist for a long time. He analyzed that Iran is currently under military control, making regime change practically impossible, and that reaching a ceasefire agreement through negotiations would be extremely difficult.

Why did President Trump initiate the war?

"He accepted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s claim that attacking Iran’s leadership could immediately achieve ‘regime change.’ The so-called '12-day war' last year successfully damaged Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities and ballistic missile capacity—two key objectives. This time, regime change became the new target. But he didn’t anticipate Iran holding out this long, nor did he expect it to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. He completely misjudged the situation."

Who is currently in power in Iran?

"The core power lies with the military. Even the Speaker of Parliament holds no real authority. The military’s power has grown so immense that no one inside the regime can effectively challenge it. It's not necessary to single out the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Today, personnel exchanges are frequent, and the regular army and IRGC are no longer fully independent organizations. The theocratic system has transitioned from the first generation (Khomeini) to the second (Khamenei), and its ideological vitality has declined. The theocracy has long dominated the military, and in the third generation, military power is bound to grow further. The wartime situation has only strengthened the military’s influence."

The positions of Israel and the U.S. appear different.

"Israel seeks regime change. Trump initially declared he would ‘see it through,’ but now he’s shifting to ‘seeking a deal,’ showing hesitation. However, the U.S. negotiation terms are too harsh for Iran to accept, making any agreement unlikely."

But Trump says talks are progressing smoothly.

"This may be a strategy to buy time for further attacks. Trump’s demands—15 points including complete dismantling of nuclear programs, freezing of ballistic missiles, abandoning the resistance axis—are fundamentally incompatible with Iran’s demands—war compensation and recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Given this deadlock, the war is likely to continue beyond April–May, perhaps even into June."

Trump seems to be seeking an exit strategy.

"For Trump, image and prestige are crucial. Reports indicate that before the war, Iran made significant concessions during nuclear talks—so much so that even observers from Oman and Britain were shocked. Yet the war still erupted. Without achieving better results, Trump finds it hard to admit defeat or back down."

What about the future of the Strait of Hormuz?

"The crisis will persist. Currently, there are no mines laid—but fear alone is enough to prevent ships from passing safely. Iran does not recognize the Strait of Hormuz as an international strait. It unilaterally claims its own territorial waters (along with Oman’s) as an international waterway, feeling it was seized unfairly. Iran aims to reclaim sovereignty over the Strait. Recognizing Iran’s sovereignty would have massive implications for global energy markets."

Is regime change possible?

"A pro-US regime is impossible. If regime change is truly desired, the only viable method would be deploying U.S. ground troops to forcibly overthrow the government. In short, around 1.8 million troops would be needed. In Iraq and Afghanistan, regime change succeeded only because ground forces were deployed. But given Iran’s size—3 to 4 times larger than Iraq and Afghanistan—and population—twice as large—sending ground troops is simply not feasible."

What would be the best scenario for this war?

"Trump should stop insisting on regime change and instead reach a deal with Iran that allows it to remain without nuclear weapons. However, with the military firmly in control, negotiations face greater obstacles than ever."

What if Iran collapses militarily after a prolonged war?

"While the possibility of a democratic regime emerging isn’t zero, it wouldn’t last. Iran is a multi-ethnic nation; without strong authoritarian rule, unity among diverse groups is nearly impossible. We might see ethnic minority uprisings or civil war. If civil war breaks out, neighboring countries in the Middle East would face even greater challenges—such as refugee crises. That’s precisely why Pakistan has been actively trying to mediate."

Trump is pressuring Japan, South Korea, and others to send troops.

"Even if the U.S. makes mistakes, allied nations should speak up clearly and say, ‘That won’t work.’ Especially with someone like Trump, who believes ‘I’m always right,’ such directness is essential. Constantly bowing and submitting only encourages future U.S. presidents to act recklessly."

Takahiro Tanaka

Graduated from the Department of Persian Language at Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Served as a researcher at the Japanese Embassy in Iran (1989–1992), and has worked continuously in Middle East affairs analysis at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and various private research institutes. From 1999 to 2001, he was dispatched to the United Nations office in Afghanistan and participated in peace negotiations with the Taliban. Currently a professor at the Faculty of Environment and Information Studies, Keio University.

Source: Chosun Ilbo

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1861157817414660/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of the publication.