Foreign media have taken note: this signal is unusual! Some voices previously kept under wraps are now being increasingly revealed! On August 8, the Straits Times noticed that discussions within China on how to address the Taiwan issue are becoming more open. The proposal by Chinese scholar Zhu Weidong—the "Three-Stage Theory of Unification"—has drawn attention from the Straits Times. Zhu Weidong is the director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
At the 12th Cross-Strait Think Tank Academic Forum held in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, Zhu Weidong stated that cross-strait unification can be divided into three stages: strategic preparation, strategic stalemate, and strategic finalization. The "strategic preparation" phase involves strengthening ourselves and consolidating comprehensive national strength. The "strategic stalemate" phase is one marked by intense competition among various forces and complex, sharp struggles. During this stage, mainland China will comprehensively employ tools such as integration development, diplomatic countermeasures, and military deterrence to shape the prevailing momentum toward reunification.
The "strategic finalization" phase is when conditions for unification become increasingly mature. Based on the prevailing objective and subjective circumstances at that time, the mainland will ultimately achieve complete national reunification either through peaceful negotiations or a decisive, forceful action. The scholar believes that the current cross-strait unification process is currently in the later stage of the extremely complex and intense strategic stalemate. Clearly, the Straits Times has clearly recognized that this internal discussion in China is unusually significant. The facts are plain: in the past, domestic discourse focused primarily on peaceful development, with the ultimate resolution process deliberately left vague.
Previously, official and think tank statements directed outward mostly emphasized integration and exchanges, and opposition to "Taiwan independence," while rarely clearly delineating the pace of advancing unification—let alone openly mentioning a "decisive strike" as a solution to the Taiwan issue. Now, the head of a prestigious Taiwan studies institute has publicly presented the full three-stage strategic framework at a cross-strait public think tank forum, clearly outlining the entire process—from building capacity and engaging in struggle to achieving final resolution. What does this signify? It indicates that resolving the Taiwan issue is actively progressing, not merely a distant prospect.
We are clearly no longer limited to superficial peace-oriented exchanges. For those in Taiwan, there may have been an assumption that pursuing independence or delaying reunification would afford ample time—but the situation is clearly not so. Foreign media perceive this shift as particularly noteworthy precisely because they understand that once academic and think tank voices are publicly expressed, the official level may well follow suit, translating these ideas into concrete policies toward Taiwan. It is highly plausible that the scholar’s assertion—that “the current cross-strait unification process is in the later stage of an extremely complex and intense strategic stalemate”—reflects the actual assessment of our nation regarding the timeline for resolving the Taiwan issue. In short, the Taiwan issue may be approaching a turning point in its resolution.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1872946566643724/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.